Whilst it is often the case that the five Central Asian republics are lumped together and seen by outsiders as one group, in truth there are between them huge differences, a lot of competition, some rivalry, and every now and then, some conflict, writes the commonspace.eu editorial team. The big two, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are often perceived to be in competition with each other. The two have different strengths and weaknesses, which means that if they play their cards right they can turn this competition into a healthy collaborative relationship with a win-win situation. This is what appears to be happening at the moment. Kazakh President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, met his Uzbek counterpart Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Shymkent on 3 March to discuss “trade and prospects for strengthening allied relations between the two countries”. The Kazakh presidential administration described the meeting as “informal”. The two leaders appear to have two priorities. The first is to co-ordinate positions in the face of what appears to be considerable pressure from Moscow for the two countries to tow the line and stay in the fold, at a time when the Kremlin feels embattled due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. 

After weeks of fierce negotiations between an alliance of six opposition parties from across the political spectrum, the so-called "Table of Six" officially nominated Kemal Kilicdaroglu on Monday (6 March) as their candidate to challenge incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May's presidential elections. Kilicdaroglu, who has led the center-left Republican People's Party for over a decade, is an understated 74-year-old former bureaucrat from the country's social security authority. There has been some criticism that he lacks the flair and charisma needed to topple Erdogan's populism after 20 years of rule. In speech in Ankara announcing his nomination, Kilicdaroglu said that the opposition coalition would "run the country in consultation and agreement with one another". The group has pledged to reverse many of the changes that Erdogan has brought about since becoming prime minister in 2003, including returning the country to a parliamentary system.

An event on water dialogue between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts is taking place today in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Monday (6 March). In a Facebook post, Emin Milli, the Founder and Chairman of Restart Initiative and the Co-Founder of Daha Yaxşı, Restart Initiative's media project, revealed that the focus of the meeting is to establish what are the key challenges to Internal Water Resources Management at the bilateral transboundary basin level, and to explore potential areas of mutual interest and cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is the third dialogue in the "Economic Connectivity: Armenia-Azerbaijan Dialogue Series" organised by the Restart Initiative in cooperation with the Hertie School, and sponsored by the United States of America. There will be a series of interviews with the participants of the dialogue published by Daha Yaxşı both this and next week. In today's meeting, one of the participants said, "we all will be losers if we don’t cooperate."

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a "limited tactical withdrawal" from Bakhmut, said the Institute for the Study of War in its latest update of the Russia-Ukraine war on Monday (6 March). They did also caution, however, that it is too early to tell if Ukraine is considering a complete withdrawal from the city. Quoting a Ukrainian serviceman, the ISW also reported that, as of 4 March, Russian forces had not yet crossed the Bakhmuta River into central Bakhmut. Russian military bloggers have also claimed the Wagner Group had pushed Ukrainian positions back to central Bakhmut, according to the ISW. Amid the increased fighting along the frontline in eastern Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence reported in its intelligence update on 6 March that Russia "has continued to respond to heavy armoured vehicle losses by deploying 60-year-old T-62 main battle tanks".

Georgian MPs have resumed discussing a draft law on "foreign agents" amid large protests in Tbilisi and even scuffles between politicians inside the committee room. The draft law was introduced on 14 February by a group of pro-government MPs who formally left the ruling Georgian Dream party last year. During discussions on Monday (6 March), a large crowd gathered at the back of the Georgian parliament to protest against the proposed law. According to OC Media journalist Mariam Nikuradze who was at the protest, protesters chanted "Russians", waved EU and Georgian flags, some taped their mouths shut, and one threw eggs at the building. Inside parliament, some opposition MPs were removed from the sitting of the Parliamentary Committee on Legal Affairs after physical confrontation between lawmakers. The chairman of the committee, Anri Okhanashvili, requested the removal of several deputies from the hall due to shouting from their seats. This then led to the chairman of the United National Movement Levan Khabeishvili physically confronting Orkhanashvili, leading to larger scuffles. Later, Salome Samadashvili, Khatuna Samnidze and Tamar Kordzaia were also removed from the sitting, having previously been warned about disruption by the chairman, according to reports.

Representatives of seven political parties in Kazakhstan debated live on TV on Wednesday (1 March) ahead of the country's 19 March elections to the lower house of parliament, the Mazhilis. The debate lasted 70 minutes and consisted of four rounds. The first round focused on the main priorities of the parties’ election programmes. In the second round, participants asked and responded to each other’s questions. In the third round, debate moderator Armangul Toktamurat challenged the participants to identify three issues they would try to resolve first if elected to the Mazhilis. And finally, in the fourth round, each party leader made a personal address to the audience.

Yesterday, on Thursday (2 March) the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for the first time since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, over one year ago. Taking place in the Indian capital New Delhi, sources report that the two spoke "on the move" for only ten minutes, and apparently not much resulted from it. Blinken reiterated US support for Ukraine, and pressed the Kremlin to reverse their decision to pull out of the 2010 START treaty on nuclear proliferation. In remarks released after his address at the closed-door meeting of foreign ministers, Antony Blinken said, "we must continue to call on Russia to end its war of aggression and withdraw from Ukraine for the sake of international peace and economic stability". According to reports from the American side, Blinken also brought up the case of the former American soldier Paul Whelan, who in 2020 was sentenced to 16 years hard labour after being convicted of spying by Russian authorities.

After an erratic 2022, which saw prospects for peace and normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and between Armenia and Turkey, swing between unprecedented new heights and familiar lows, and after a rather pessimistic start for 2023 when diplomacy appeared to have to come to dead end, March has started with cautious optimism in the air, and the prospect of a historic Spring breakthrough appears within reach. This is due to the convergence of a number of factors and developments, some anticipated and some not. The ten developments that offer cause for optimism are: US brokered talks between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Munich; the deployment of an EU Monitoring Mission; the revival of the Brussels format; internet diplomacy; the ruling of the International Court of Justice; a fluid political situation in Stepanakert; Baku and Stepanakert holding direct talks; earthquake diplomacy between Armenia and Turkey; the limitations of Russia’s power and influence have been exposed; and more confident leaderships in both Baku and Yerevan.