By a decree of its de-facto leader, Samvel Sharamanyan, the self-declared and internationally unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) was dissolved and will cease to exist by the end of 2023. NKR was declared by the Karabakh Armenians in 1991 to replace the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, which was established by the Soviets in 1923. Thus, the dissolution of NKR ends a hundred years during which Nagorno-Karabakh had its own political status and identity. No doubt, memories of these hundred years will linger on in the consciousness of both Armenians and Azerbaijanis for generations to come. Though the next 100 years remain uncertain, absorbed as it will be into the Azerbaijan’s Karabakh Economic Region, call it what you will – Nagorno Karabakh, Dağlıq Qarabağ, Karabakh, or Artsakh – the entity is gone and unlikely to return.
The pain and suffering experienced during three decades of conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis over the mountainous region is, however, unlikely to disappear. In the early 1990s, over 600,000 Azerbaijanis fled from advancing Armenian and local ethnic Armenian forces in the seven regions surrounding Karabakh, making the 2020 war inevitable. This time, however, it is reported that tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians left upon being presented with the difficult choice of either leaving their homes or living under Azerbaijani rule.
It had been hoped that the issue of the re/integration of Karabakh into Azerbaijan proper could have been resolved through albeit difficult negotiations, but attempts to bring Stepanakert and Baku together for talks failed. Despite many warnings, this left few prepared for Karabakh’s sudden dissolution let alone ready to cope with the consequences. Indeed, negotiations between Yerevan and Baku had appeared in deadlock on three major issues, with one concerning the rights and security of Karabakh's ethnic Armenian population and their re/integration into Azerbaijan.
It was only in the aftermath of Baku’s blitzkrieg that those talks are now beginning over the fate of a population that has all but disappeared, leaving their homes, possessions, and the graves of their loved ones behind. The same had been true for the Azerbaijani IDPs that had left before them, albeit with those homes and monuments later razed to the ground. It is imperative that Baku does not make the same mistake as Yerevan and Stepanakert before it. Though it seems unlikely for now, the prospect of Karabakh Armenians returning must also be considered.
Stepanakert’s representatives in talks with Azerbaijan have already been discussing various points in the handover of the region to Baku. Humanitarian supplies are now restored, electricity is supplied from the Azerbaijani and not Armenian power grid, gas will follow, proposals for civil society exchanges between both groups are being pondered, as will those for the creation of a joint field hospital and even joint medical teams. It all sounds potentially encouraging on paper – with one caveat. There is now no longer an ethnic Armenian population.
Unless that changes, the Karabakh Armenians will instead face the challenge of integrating into Armenian not Azerbaijani society.
Overwhelmed by trauma, fear, and uncertainty, so many left Karabakh in just a few days that the Stepanakert-Goris highway was burdened by an exodus of almost biblical proportions. It was understandable. Collective memory had been further triggered by predictions of the massacre of civilians as they fled. Only a humanitarian corridor under the auspices of international organisations, many said, could save them. As it turned out, video footage instead showed the population passing calmly through the Azerbaijani checkpoint on the Hakari bridge.
Nonetheless, Baku did little to reassure residents that they could remain in Karabakh, except through statements that were probably left unread. Baku did, however, at least rush medical supplies and firefighters to Karabakh when fuel made available for them to leave exploded, killing at least 68 and injuring hundreds more.
Regardless, there must be an option to return, assuming the environment for that exists and even if only to collect their possessions. Later, as some have already pointed out, there will also be the issue of access to the graves of their loved ones. Not only is this necessary on a personal level, but also to prevent those graves from falling into neglect or even disappearing. As one former diplomat to Baku told me, a presence or return will allow greater monitoring and protection of Karabakh’s cultural and religious sites and monuments.
Other issues such as property rights might also emerge, though like those ethnic Armenians that fled Azerbaijan before them over three decades ago, it is possible that international organisations such as UNHCR and the Norwegian Refugee Council could construct houses for them as they did in response to that first wave of refugees. With that uncertain, however, some might possibly leave for Russia or elsewhere. It is already difficult to find temporary accommodation and employment in Armenia, hardly an economic powerhouse.
It is imperative that this new wave of displaced persons is not forgotten in the same way that hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis often were before them. They should also be included in the now even more difficult process of facilitating eventual reconciliation. Otherwise, new wounds will continue to fester even if an agreement to normalise relations is signed by Baku and Yerevan. Regardless, with one chapter now over in this conflict, and with a new one about to begin, this was not how Karabakh was meant to end.
Meanwhile, Kavita Belani, UNHCR head in Yerevan, says that there are two main questions she hears from those ethnic Armenians now newly arrived from Karabakh. The first is how does Azerbaijan envision the re/integration process? The second regards what shape will any observation mission take? Belani says she has no answers to give them yet, but it does indicate that a return is theoretically possible. Hopefully, in the next few days, weeks, and months, she will have her response.
