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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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How does the war in Iran affect the implementation of TRIPP?

How does the war in Iran affect the implementation of TRIPP?

The TRIPP project (the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) is seen as a key component of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process. For Azerbaijan, TRIPP promises access to the Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia; for Armenia, the route reaffirms the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In addition, TRIPP is expected to open up regional trade and connectivity, while the presence of the United States on the ground in developing the route provides Armenia with an added layer of security reassurance. Many analysts argue that TRIPP is at the very heart of the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and they are not wrong. A possible delay in its implementation or a loss of interest from the Trump administration in advancing the route would raise big concerns regarding the peace process in both Baku and Yerevan. (Click on the image above for the full briefing.)