For decades, Russia has tried to protect its interests in the South Caucasus following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But Russia had nothing to offer to the countries of the region, be it for their economic and political challenges, or even more importantly for the process of restoring peace in the region after it slid into conflict at the end of the Soviet era. There was however one thing that it could do, and that was to spoil any efforts for peace and reconciliation, if these efforts did not originate and were managed by Russia itself. This way it could maintain it primordial position in the region, and as much as possible, keep everyone else out, whilst often presenting itself as an exemplary peacemaker. This grotesque situation has played itself out in front of everyone’s eyes since 1992. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have for most of the time had no choice but to play along with the Russian masquerade, and the international community, most of the time distracted by other issues, generally played along, being content to be seen offering some kind of balance to Russian posturing. Russia never had, and certainly does not have now, any interest in working genuinely with international partners to support peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. If a dialogue with Russia is necessary so that Russia will not be a spoiler, than that dialogue is futile because Russian objectives are not the same as those of the West. Russia’s gloating when Azerbaijani president Aliyev failed to turn up for a crucial summit in Granada last week is a case in point. We are now already seeing Russian rhetoric increase as preparations for the long-expected meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan, with Michel, scheduled for later this month, intensify. Russian pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan ahead of the Brussels meeting is also increasing both overtly and covertly. There is an argument that Armenia and Azerbaijan simply cannot afford to be seen agreeing with each other, under the auspices of Brussels, without the Russians being part of the story. Thus there has been in recent weeks some frantic discussions about how that could be done, including by having the final lap of any discussions in Tbilisi, without any outside mediators. Such ideas have also found favour in Tehran and Ankara. A wonderful idea, but one that has many flaws. Any agreement will need to be somehow underpinned by some kind of international patronage. And “ownership” will also determine who is going to pick up the bill for post-conflict reconstruction and other costs of erasing the scars of the conflict from the region, including for example demining. Still, Tbilisi may be a venue that more or less can be acceptable to both the Russians as well as to the Europeans and the Americans. In the end, the location of the symbolic finishing line must not turn out to be the most important issue. All focus, and all efforts must be concentrated on getting Armenia and Azerbaijan to agree to finally put an end to this long painful episode in their history, that has taken the lives of tens of thousands, displaced hundreds of thousands and costed billions. And that would be just the end of the beginning because translating a written agreement into concrete actions that would ensure lasting and durable peace will be a much longer and more difficult endeavour.

It has been planned for many months, and it took place for the first time after a gap of eight years, but the meeting of the foreign ministers of the six GCC countries and the 27 EU member states when it eventually took place yesterday in Muscat, capital of Oman, was inevitably overshadowed by the deepening crisis in the Middle  East triggered by Saturday's attack by Hamas on Southern Israel. Addressing the issue, whilst speaking to the media at the end of the meeting, EU High Representative Josep Borrell stated that in the meeting, the two sides agreed that "the priority is to cease violence and to prevent further regional escalation. It is of utmost importance to ensure the release of hostages, as well as the protection of civilians at all times and by all parties."  commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that it is good that after years of neglect, the EU is finally giving relations with the Gulf Co-operation Council countries the importance that they deserve. The final declaration from the Muscat meeting is ambitious and wide ranging. It needs to be seen how the EU proposes to take it forward, and what is the mechanism it will put in place to ensure that it does not remain merely a piece of paper. The final declaration announces the holding of an EU-GCC summit of Heads of State and Government but gives no details. Whilst this summit will need to be well prepared, the aim should be to have it as soon as possible. But in the meantime the crisis in Middle East will remain the topic of the day for a while, and it is good that, even if by co-incidence of timing, the EU and the GCC countries could co-ordinate their positions in such a sensitive time.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres, on Monday, 9 October, made a passionate call for a return to negotiations between the sides in the Middle East, and said that "only a negotiated peace that fulfills the legitimate national aspirations of Palestinians and Israelis, together with their security alike – the long-held vision of a two-State solution, in line with United Nations resolutions, international law and previous agreements – can bring long-term stability to the people of this land and the wider Middle East region." Gutteres was speaking as the most serious crisis in the middle East in half a century unfolded following the Saturday morning raids by Hamas militants on towns and settlements in the south of Israel. Whilst unequivocally condemning the attacks, Gutteres said that "this most recent violence does not come in a vacuum. The reality is that it grows out of a long-standing conflict, with a 56-year long occupation and no political end in sight." "It’s time to end this vicious circle of bloodshed, hatred and polarization", the UN Secretary General said in the press briefing, which he held in New York following a meeting with other senior UN officials. Clearly, the UN sees the crisis as one of the most significant in recent years and is brazing itself for a humanitarian catastrophy as Israel launches a large scale punitive action in Gaza with the aim of eradicating completely Hamas, and its political and military capacity. In his statement, Gutteres said that "Civilians must be respected and protected at all times".

Tragedy continues to unfold in the Middle East, following the Saturday morning audacious attack by Hamas militants against targets in Southern Israel. The Palestinians broke out of Gaza into Israel, captured a number of settlement and military outposts and created havoc amongst civilian communities. The numbers of death in Israel is now above 700. Israel has responded with a massive aerial bombardment of the densely populated Gaza strip - leaving already hundreds dead and many more injured and displaced. The fighting is however not over yet and this tragedy continues to unfold, with most observers thinking it will get much worse. Israel is on Monday primarily focused on clearing Israeli settlements from Palestinian gunmen. This task is made more difficult since some of the gunmen may be holding hostages. There are also reports that new Palestinian militants are crossing over from the Gaza strip even now, and the Israeli Army has not denied this. Israel has mobilised one hundred thousands reservists. This in itself is a big burden on the economy and these reservists will need to return to their civilian jobs as soon as possible. But for the moment Israel is focused on revenge, and on obliterating Hamas. Easier said than done. This is a force that is intricately embedded within the 3.5 million civilian population of Gaza. For Israel to achieve its aim a massive human cost will be necessary.