Russia continues to pile pressure on Armenia. It realises it is loosing the grip that it has had on the country ever since its independence in 1991. Now, Russia is also using its influence on Iran, a country that borders Armenia, to add pressure on the government of Nikol Pashinyan. According to some Armenian media outlets Iran has demanded that security for the TRIPP project in Armenia be ensured exclusively by the Armenian Armed Forces or the armed forces of a third country already present on Armenian territory. The only such third country at the moment is Russia. Iranian authorities fear that American forces can be deployed to protect the TRIPP route and this could result in the encirclement of Iran. Yet the deployment of US troops has never been under consideration. The Armenian authorities have assured that the implementation of the TRIPP project will not create any challenges or threats for Iran. This latest development follows a tense meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and Armenia prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan in Bishkek. The Russian president was transmiting "hot and cold" in Bishkek. With Pashinyan, the atmosphere was certainly cold. This politicial pressure comes on top of a series of economic measures that Moscow has ordered that try to stifle the Armenian economy. But Pashinyan and his government remain defiant. The governent plan for 2026-31 speaks about a balanced foreign policy. Russia's primary role in Armenia is over.This politicial pressure comes on top of a series of economic measures that Moscow has ordered that try to stifle the Armenian economy. But Pashinyan and his government remain defiant. The governent plan for 2026-31 speaks about a balanced foreign policy. Russia's primary role in Armenia is over. (click image to read the analysis in full)

Kazakhstan held parliamentary elections last week, under a new constitution. They were far from perfect, as international observers noted, but they heralded a new era in Kazakh politics. President Tokayev has to thread carefully, and balance various interests – not least Putin’s Russia, which considers Kazakhstan an artificial creation, that should always be under Russian control. China has been nibbling into Russian interests in Central Asia, but doing it in its own way, mainly through the many economic tools that it possesses. But Central Asia countries, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, now also want to develop their relations with Europe and the west. And internally they are slowly reforming too. This process needs to be supported and encouraged. Kazakhstan’s first unicameral parliament, called Kurultai, began its work following the country’s constitutional reforms, and elections, replacing the former two-chamber Parliament. Of its 145 deputies, 111 are new members, while women now hold nearly one-third of the seats and youth representation has increased. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called on lawmakers to modernize legislation and bring existing laws into line with the new Constitution. Key priorities include digitalization, artificial intelligence, migration policy and social legislation. The elections held on 23 August “were technically well-prepared”, according to the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, one of the organisations that observed the elections, “but took place in an environment lacking political pluralism”. Political choice was limited, as all contesting parties supported the incumbent President’s policies. The campaign was orderly with equal conditions, though the new Adilet party held an undue advantage. Laws revised shortly before the vote with limited consultation fall short of international standards on political participation. (click image to read more)

The number of provocations against Azerbaijan in Russia is increasing. Whilst official Moscow maintains a friendly tone towards Baku, daily incidents indicate otherwise. The latest incident involved the posting of provocative images against Azerbaijan by unknown individuals in front of the guest house of the Embassy of Azerbaijan in the Russian Federation on August 27 at around noon on 27th August The incident was strongly condemned by the Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement issued shortly afterwards. "It is not excluded that this unacceptable provocation, in addition to serving to artificially strain Azerbaijani-Russian relations, is part of the dirty and biased campaign against Azerbaijan conducted in a number of Russian media resources in recent times. The Azerbaijani side calls on the relevant bodies of the Russian Federation to give the necessary legal assessment to such provocative actions, ensure a thorough investigation of the incident, and take necessary measures to prevent the recurrence of such cases. We expect the Russian side to fully fulfill its obligations to ensure the security of the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan and its employees at the appropriate level, as well as to prevent any provocative actions that may impede the normal activities of the diplomatic mission, in accordance with the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement said. In an editorial, the influential Azerbaijani website haqqin.az stated: "What happened on August 27, around midday, outside the guesthouse of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Moscow is disgusting. Hanging insulting notes on the walls of a foreign country's diplomatic building is cowardly, dirty, and petty to the point of disgust. And note where they ended up. The guesthouse is the same mission property and is protected by the same Vienna Convention as the embassy chancery on Leontievsky Lane; this is precisely why the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry cited the convention today. The difference between the two addresses isn't legal. The difference is in who's behind the door. Diplomats are in the chancery. People in the guesthouse are in Moscow on business.  This speaks volumes about the "courage" of the perpetrators and, more accurately, about the conscience of those who sent them.' Moscow works in mysterious ways, but one must ask, what's the point?

As Viktor Orbán’s government suffered a landslide defeat in Hungary last month, one of the main questions was how Prime Minister Péter Magyar’s new and much more pro-EU government would affect the EU’s ability to enact punitive measures against Russia, in particular the severity of sanctions that it could apply to the Kremlin and those indirectly supporting its war effort in Ukraine. With Hungary no longer stonewalling these efforts, the EU adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia on the 24th of April. For the first time, the EU has used its ‘anti-circumvention’ tools and applied them to Kyrgyzstan. These are secondary sanctions on countries helping the Kremlin bypass the primary sanctions imposed upon it as a consequence of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While individual Kyrgyz as well as other Central Asian banks and entities have been targeted before, this is the first time they have been applied to an entire country. Kyrgyzstan’s imports of European dual-use technologies, in particular telecommunications equipment and metalworking machinery, far exceed its domestic demand and are being re-exported to Russia, according to EU Sanctions Envoy David O’Sullivan. This is also greatly facilitated by Ruble-backed cryptocurrency, allowing re-export transactions with Russian entities to better circumvent sanctions, which is why Kyrgyz cryptocurrency company TengriCoin has also been included, along with two major Kyrgyz banks. While this re-export business is surely profitable for Kyrgyz companies, it remains to be seen whether this sanctions package will have any immediate noticeable effect on the Kyrgyz economy. Past EU sanctions have already been criticised by the Kyrgyz government, with President Sadyr Japarov previously describing EU sanctions against individual Kyrgyz entities as “baseless” and interfering in internal affairs. First Deputy Cabinet Chair of Kyrgyzstan, Daniyar Amangeldiev, also pointed out that sweeping sanctions against Kyrgyzstan will have consequences for its image on the global stage. Regardless, the EU has now pushed through its 20th sanctions package, which is undoubtedly an escalation from previous iterations and presents a difficult situation for the Kyrgyz government to navigate. So far, Kyrgyzstan has responded by calling for transparent talks with the European Commission, and is reportedly in direct consultations with the EU, as well as US and UK officials, who have also levied their own sanctions against Kyrgyz entities.

The campaign for the Armenian parliamentary elections began on Friday (8 May), with 17 parties and two electoral blocs in the running. All are seeking to enter parliament and win the support of around 2.5 million eligible voters across Armenia. With the campaign underway, each party is already mobilising public opinion against the other. Parties are divided on different themes: peace vs reconsideration of the current peace process, European vs Russian trajectories, and populist vs democratic tendencies, among other political cleavages shaping the campaign. Each party is targeting different segments of the Armenian electorate and hoping that its strategy will secure seats in parliament. The ruling Civil Contract Party will run independently and once again be led by the current Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan. The party faces several challengers, including former President Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance party, the Strong Armenia alliance associated with businessman and philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan, and Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia Party. Other parties include the former Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan’s Wings of Unity party, the Armenian National Congress, which is expected to participate under the leadership of Levon Zurabyan, and Edmon Marukyan’s Bright Armenia Party. In addition, former Yerevan mayor Hayk Marutyan is also entering the elections with his New Force party, and Aram Sargsyan, leader of the Republic Party and brother of former Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan, who was killed during the 1999 Armenian parliament shooting, confirmed that his party will also run independently. Lastly, among others, the newly formed movement called Against Everyone is also hoping to garner support from undecided voters. (To read the full briefing, click on the image above.)

The deadline given by US president Donald Trump for the “opening” by Iran of the Straits of Hormuz is approaching. "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" will not mark the end of the world. But it will be the end of the Middle East as we know it. Trump delivered his ultimatum in the most unorthodox way for a world leader. The paragraph below contains very strong language, which we do not usually allow on commonspace.eu, but given the fact that they were written by the president of the United States in a public post, we are making an exception. Trump says: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP". Iran have made it clear that if their oil and water infrastructure is attacked, they will reciprocate by attacking similar infrastructure in neighbouring GCC countries. Given the dependence of these states on energy resources for their economies, and on desalination plants for their water, within days we will see a total change of reality in the Middle East. Sane people all over the world are calling for de-escalation and a return to negotiations. This war should never have started, but now it must stop. This is not a game and not a movie. "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" must not become a deadline leading to a tragic end for the Middle East. It can and should mark the moment of a new beginning for the region. (This is a comment by the editorial team of commonspace.eu).

The TRIPP project (the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) is seen as a key component of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process. For Azerbaijan, TRIPP promises access to the Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia; for Armenia, the route reaffirms the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In addition, TRIPP is expected to open up regional trade and connectivity, while the presence of the United States on the ground in developing the route provides Armenia with an added layer of security reassurance. Many analysts argue that TRIPP is at the very heart of the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and they are not wrong. A possible delay in its implementation or a loss of interest from the Trump administration in advancing the route would raise big concerns regarding the peace process in both Baku and Yerevan. (Click on the image above for the full briefing.)