CESD Report: Mixed fortunes for Azerbaijani economy after western sanctions on Russia

The very public, and very rare, spat between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which saw Saudi planes bombarding cargo in Mukalla in Southern Yemen, which had just been unloaded from two ships that arrived from the UAE port of Fujeirah, has caused concern among the four other GCC countries, and other neighbours in the region. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi visited Riyadh on Wednesday for talks with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on the developments in Yemen, which have raised concern across the region. Oman's Foreign Ministry said the meeting between the ministers “addressed efforts to contain the escalation of violence and ways to support the political process aimed at addressing the root causes of the crisis”. Tension has risen in recent weeks after the military takeover of Mahra and Hadhramaut, which share a 700km border with Saudi Arabia, by the Southern Transitional Council. The STC is the largest faction within the forces of the ruling Presidential Leadership Council, led by Rashad al Alimi.  In Riyadh, Mr Al Busaidi and Prince Faisal discussed “achieving a comprehensive and sustainable settlement that preserves the sovereignty of the Republic of Yemen over its security and stability, while also taking into account the aspirations of its people and the higher national security interests of neighbouring countries and the rest of the region”, Oman's Foreign Ministry said. Oman has played a vital mediation role in Yemen since Houthi rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, forcing the government to flee south. A Saudi-led coalition, including the UAE, intervened at the request of the government to counter the Houthis, who control most of the north. On Monday ( 28 December) the UAE announced that it was heeding calls by Mr Alimi, backed by Saudi statements, which called for the withdrawal of UAE forces from Yemen. This in turn raised concerns about internationally backed efforts to counter terror groups there. Gulf countries have called for calm and restraint following the escalation in recent days. GCC members, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait said they were monitoring the situation closely, highlighting the important role played  in the past by Saudi Arabia and UAE supporting “stability and security” in Yemen. Bahrain expressed its “confidence in the leadership of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and their ability to contain any differences in viewpoints within the framework of a unified Gulf”. Qatar and Kuwait commended statements issued by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which reflected “a commitment to prioritising the interests of the region, strengthening the principles of good neighbourliness and adhering to the foundations and principles upon which the GCC Charter is based”, Qatar's Foreign Ministry said. (click picture to read the article in full).

In a move seen as an attempt to de-escalate a crises with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday (30th December) announced that it was heeding a call to withdraw its troops from Southern Yemen. UAE says that its presence included counter-terrorism teams that were crucial in fighting against Islamist groups. UAE sources said that parts of Yemen not controlled by the Houthis have had Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP) operatives using the territory to launch attacks on Europe, the US and Middle East. UAE teams have co-ordinated with American and British special forces and intelligence. The sources added that Emirati forces and their Yemeni allies also helped reverse Houthi gains in the south. including the liberation of Aden port. The small UAE contingent has remained in place since the UAE withdrew most of its military personnel in 2019. The leading English-language newspaper in Abu Dhabi, The National, said that the main UAE force was based at Riyan Mukalla International Airport, with access to fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters, but also operated smaller contingents in the port town Balhaf and Shabwa. "It is understood it also flew a number of drones from the airbase that were able to track terrorist movements, pass information back to its allies and assisted special forces' missions." Meanwhile a division has emerged in Yemen's presidential council after four members denounced what they called the 'unilateral decisions' by the chairman. Four of Yemen’s eight Presidential Leadership Council members on Tuesday denounced an announcement by the council’s chairman accusing him of breaching the governing agreement. Tension between Yemeni leaders has been rising for weeks, underscoring the fragility of the country's already fractured political landscape and further complicating efforts to confront the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The latest rift took an unprecedented turn on Tuesday morning, marked by a Saudi-led coalition “limited operation” striking combat vehicles Riyadh linked to the Southern Transitional Council, which has three members in the PLC. The PLC Chairman, Rashad al Alimi, on Tuesday said that he was seeking to cancel the joint defence agreement with the UAE. “What has been issued … constitutes a clear violation of the Declaration of the Transfer of Power [agreement], which explicitly stipulates that the Presidential Leadership Council is a collective body whose decisions are taken by consensus, or by majority when consensus is not possible,” the statement by the four members said. “It does not, under any circumstances, allow for unilateral decision-making on sovereign, military, or major political matters." The statement was signed by STC chief Aidarous Al Zubaidi, Faraj Al Bahsani, Tariq Saleh and Abu Zaraa al Muharrami. (click the picture to read the full article).