The war against Iran, unleashed by the United States and Israel started 100 days ago, on 28 February 2026. Two days later, in my Monday Commentary on commonspace.eu, I said that Donald Trump had opened Pandora’s Box, and that the conflict unleashed will have deep and lasting consequences for the region, and for the world. Unfortunately, it seems I was right. We are just at the beginning of what are likely to be, a chain of events, that remain for the most part unpredictable, even if the dangers, turmoil and risks, can already be seen.
The problem is far from being resolved. A sort of a ceasefire has decreased the violence in the Gulf. Trump, under pressure from many quarters, to bring the crisis to a halt, keeps promising a deal “soon”, but in this, as with everything else in this saga, Trump is far away from reality. The revolutionary regime in Iran did not melt away; the killing of the Supreme Leader did not end the regime, nor did it mellow it down, the Iranian people did not rise to overthrow the clerics and their system, and the world did not rally around the US to support its adventure. Instead, Trump found himself tied to Israel’s Benyamin Netanyahu, and his convoluted view of the Middle East. Traffic through the vital global trade artery – the Strait of Hormuz, has been disrupted, as have global energy supplies, and other vital goods, such as fertilizer.
Even if a semblance of peace is restored, the impact will be widespread and everlasting.
This is seen, and will be seen even more crudely in the future, in the six Gulf monarchies that constitute the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).
The six countries have since the late 1960s relied on the US for their defence and security. They had blind faith in the US, and this seemed to increase when Donald Trump returned to the White House for a second term. They did not want the war. It came as an unpleasant surprise. But once it started, they expected the Americans to win it quickly and decisively. Instead, they find themselves faced with an injured but emboldened Iran, and a new Gulf reality that is unpleasant and uncomfortable.
The GCC countries have to go back to the drawing board. At least three of them, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE, have the financial clout necessary, and leaders that are sharp enough to deliver. But there are some realities that will be inevitable. One can mention five:
- Saudi Arabia will become more dominant. The Kingdom has always been the primus inter pares in the region. This will only become more so in the future. For the moment UAE does not seem to accept this, but in time, forced by circumstances, it will also fall in line;
- The GCC will search for a new security model, in which the US will be a part, but only a part; Since it replaced Britain as the main security provider in the Gulf in the late 1960s, the United States has had monopoly of military power. Everything indicates that the GCC countries will now look for something else;
- The ‘’Dubai Magic” is over. Neither the tourists nor the bankers, will come back soon. The time of unlimited spending sprees is over; the future has to be built on new realities.
- The six GCC states are hereditary absolute monarchies ruled by six families. The new reality will increase the stress on the system of internal governance. Whilst one should not overstate this, one cannot ignore it either;
- Managing Iran will remain one of the challenges ahead. Much work needs to be done, and the GCC countries will have to be ambitious, creative, bold and generous, in the process. Their long-term survival will depend on how well they do this.
Iran, a hundred days after the killing of the Supreme Leader, is injured but emboldened. The heavy bombardments by the most powerful planes and missiles of the US and Israel, killed thousands of people, including one tier of leaders. But the worst damage is the material damage to infrastructure and facilities that will take years to restore. So far, the Islamic Republic, and its institutions have remained intact. But that does not mean they are not under pressure. Beyond the bravado speech coming out of Tehran, there is another reality. The war might not have triggered the revolt that Netanyahu and Trump expected, but it has triggered a process of change, the full implications of which will only be seen once the dust has settled.
Donald Trump emerges from the last hundred days weakened and vulnerable. The outcome of the war is not what he expected. It was his war, even if some say that it was Netanyahu’s war. He thought he could win it quickly and decisively. He didn’t. Americans, to the right and to the left, are unhappy with the war and its consequences. They will have their say in the mid-term elections later this year. It is too early for the opponents of Trump to claim victory. But the writing is on the wall. The war will define Trump’s second term. For the moment it does not look good for the president.
It does not look good for the United Sates either. Despite the impressive display of US shooting power, the war exposed the limits of US power, and the increasing US isolation in the world. The US can flatten a country, but it cannot flatten a people. The US deployed everything it has against Iran, except nuclear weapons. It dented the Iranian regime and its capabilities. Maybe even more. But it did not obliterate it. That clearly came as a surprise to Donald Trump; to US allies in the Gulf it came as a shock; to US adversaries in the world, who were watching carefully, it was a very instructive moment, and they all drew their own conclusions.
The last hundred days have had an impact on others too: Israel; Lebanon, and the Palestinians, are caught in it.
Europe is trying desperately not to be embroiled in Trump’s war. But Europe must be prepared for the day after. There is little sign of that yet.
source: Dr Dennis Sammut is the Director of LINKS Europe, and Managing Editor of commonspace.eu
