Diplomacy

2024 started with an unprecedented number of Russian drones and ballistic missiles raining down on Ukraine. In this op-ed published this week on various media outlets, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, argues that Ukraine prevailing against the Russian aggression is the best security guarantee for Europe and that a paradigm shift is needed from supporting Ukraine for 'as long as it takes' to committing to 'what it takes' for Ukraine to achieve victory. Borrell argues that we must intensify our efforts to win the race against time with Putin’s Russia. "We cannot allow him to prevail. Our own security is at stake. Should Putin’s strategy prove successful, it would embolden Russia and other autocracies to pursue their imperialist agendas. We must at any cost prevent a world where might makes right, where powerful countries change borders at will, and the weak fall prey to the strong. Allowing such a scenario would cast a long shadow over our future for decades to come. Ukraine prevailing against the Russian aggression is the best security guarantee for Europe. A Russia that learnt to stay within its borders will lessen pressure on its neighbours, ease Ukraine’s path to EU membership and allow Europe and the world to shift attention to the many other challenges that need solving. With our assistance, Ukraine can consign Russia’s imperial ambitions to the pages of history. This must guide our actions and thinking."

The Turkish Grand National Assembly (Parliament), on Tuesday, 23 January, ratified the agreement on Swedish membership of NATO, bringing the Scandinavian country one step closer to fulfilling its historic decision to abandon its decades-long neutrality and join the military alliance in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the threat that poses to the European security order. The ratification was adopted by the national assembly in a vote of 287 to 55. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is now expected to sign the accession agreement. formalising the process of Turkish ratification. All members of NATO have to approve the addition of new members to the organisation. The only remaining NATO country to finalise the ratification process is Hungary  “Today we are one step closer to becoming a full member of NATO,” tweeted Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. On Tuesday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reached out to Kristersson, asking him to come down to Budapest and negotiate about the NATO bid, an idea swiftly rejected by Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström.

Turkmenistan, for decades considered one of the most closed countries in the world, is moving towards modest attempts at opening up its economy. Western sanctions against Russia which caused a gradual halt to energy supply from Russia to Europe and swelling Russian gas supplies to China, once Turkmenistan’s almost-exclusive client, made Ashgabat face a new reality that challenged its longstanding economic model, resulting in a significant deterioration of living standards and social discontent. Against this background, the country had to start considering options for diversifying its gas export geography and attracting foreign investment, writes Murad Muradov in this analysis prepared for commonspace.eu. The big question remains however whether the long-cherished idea of the Transcaspian pipeline, a link which would bring Turkmenistan’s gas to European markets, will finally come to fruition after many years of aborted attempts and uncertainty. This may be within reach sooner and faster than expected.

The chairmanship of the Non-Aligned Movement, a grouping of 120 countries, mainly in the global South, passed on Friday morning from Azerbaijan to Uganda. President Yoweri Museveni was elected by acclamation as the chair of the 19th NAM Heads of State and Government Summit taking over from Ilham Aliyev. Azerbaijani foreign minister, Jeyhun Bayramov, represented the outgoing president Aliyev. He congratulated Uganda and President Museveni for assuming the NAM chairmanship and promised that his country will extend all the necessary support to ensure success of the movement. “Azerbaijan chairmanship has done its best to make the voice of our members heard in all possible platforms with successful initiatives and there’s no doubt that Uganda’s chairmanship will continue with this legacy, even further building upon it,” he said. “At this historic moment, after four years of proudly chairing the movement, we are handing over the chairmanship to the Republic of Uganda with a rich substantial and institutional legacy and we are confident that Uganda will further enhance the development feasibility of the movement and strengthen unity among its member states. I would like to reiterate that our passion and determination for the success of NAM will always remain strong and we will continue to contribute to the just cause.”

The African Union, European Union, and United States called Thursday (18 January) for an immediate cease-fire and constructive dialogue between warring factions in Sudan. They also called for an end to tension between Somalia and Ethiopia over an agreement signed between Ethiopia and Somalia’s breakaway region Somaliland. Representatives of the AU, EU and US spoke in Kampala, Uganda, after the meeting of an East African regional bloc. They said the two crises are threatening regional stability in the Horn of Africa. Annette Weber, the EU special envoy for the Horn of Africa, said the two crises have a common link with Red Sea, which she called a critical waterway carrying 10 percent of global cargo. Weber also said there needs to be a collective response among Horn of Africa countries against attacks on ships by Yemen-based Houthi rebels. Regarding Somalia, the AU, EU and US said they recognize the country’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, including the breakaway region of Somaliland.

Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have become full members of BRICS as from 1 January. Iran's membership brought BRICS to Armenia's doorstep, making Yerevan an immediate neighbour of the group. Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu says that given that currently, Armenia is in the painstaking process of re-assessing and re-evaluating its foreign policy. Armenia should carefully look into ways to expand its cooperation with BRICS member states: "first of all in the economic area, inviting BRICS investments into the infrastructure and other projects in Armenia. Armenia is in active discussions with Iran, India, and UAE to bring their investments into Armenia, and there is potential to have Chinese involvement through the Belt and Road Initiative. The possibility of receiving funding from the BRICS New Development Bank for various projects, which can be implemented by BRICS member companies, should be studied too."