South Caucasus

The influential chairman of the Georgian Dream Party Bidzina Ivanishvili and his family members have been transferring their business assets from offshore entities to companies registered in Georgia, according to Transparency International. This follows the financial sanctions imposed on Ivanishvili by the U.S. Treasury Department on the 27th December of last year due to Ivanishvili's alleged efforts to undermine democratic processes in Georgia in favor of the Russia. A few days later, on December 31, 2024, Ivanishvili began transferring his companies from offshore zones to Georgia, Transparency International reported on Wednesday.

Russia has warned the Armenian government of severe economic consequences if it pursued plans to move towards membership of the European Union. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk insisted on Wednesday that the EU accession process will mark the beginning of Armenia’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic (EEU), a Russian-led trade bloc that gives Armenia tariff-free access to Russia’s vast market. “The outcome here is obvious: opening markets with the European Union will mean closing markets with the Eurasian Economic Union,” Russian news agencies quoted him as telling journalists.

In his interview to Azerbaijani media on January 7 this year, President Aliyev touched upon the issue of the upcoming Trump administration, notably speaking about his positive expectations, up to the prospects of establishing strategic partnership relations. This statement was rather unexpected, given many recent tensions between Baku and Washington, including the spat with the U.S. Embassy and the Azerbaijani side’s refusal to hold a US-mediated meeting of foreign ministers with Armenia during the OSCE Summit in Malta. Back then, Azerbaijani MFA issued a statement saying that the four years of the Biden administration were “lost years” for the Azerbaijan-US relations.

The Council of the European Union has decided to suspend parts of the EU-Georgia visa facilitation agreement leading to Georgian diplomats and officials having to apply for visa when travelling to the EU. "For travels to a member state which has reintroduced visa requirements, Georgian diplomats and officials will also no longer benefit from shorter application times, lower visa fees, and the possibility to submit fewer supporting documents," a Council statement announced on Monday.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signalled plans to seek European Union (EU) membership. Though framed as an attempt to diversify away from decades of dependency on Russia, Moscow instead sees it as a western attempt to simply oust it from the region. Such a move is supported by some in Armenia amid disillusionment with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) following the 2020 war with Azerbaijan and a 2022 incursion into Armenia itself.

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was downed by a missile on 25 December fired from a Pantsir-S1 air defence system which was brought from Syria to Russia, according to reliable sources familiar with the investigation quoted exclusively by Azerbaijan-based international news channel AnewZ and reported for the first time in Europe by Euronews. Electronic warfare systems were deployed against the Azerbaijani aircraft on 25 December as it was on its approach to land in Grozny, leading to severe malfunctions in its control systems before its crash near Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, AnewZ reported based on its sources.

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 was downed by a missile on 25 December fired from a Pantsir-S1 air defence system which was brought from Syria to Russia, according to reliable sources familiar with the investigation quoted exclusively by Azerbaijan-based international news channel AnewZ and reported for the first time in Europe by Euronews. Electronic warfare systems were deployed against the Azerbaijani aircraft on 25 December as it was on its approach to land in Grozny, leading to severe malfunctions in its control systems before its crash near Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, AnewZ reported based on its sources.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia has decided to adopt a foreign policy that is balanced between relations with the European Union and Russia. He added that balanced relations are also being created at the regional level notably with Iran, by establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey and concluding a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan said this approach is not easy but also not impossible adding that Armenia is being transparent with all its international partners about its intentions. “Yes, we have decided to get closer to the European Union, but we are very intensively trying to share our position with Iran and Russia and with all our partners”, Pashinyan stated.

A second Trump presidency is unlikely to bring a sharp focus to the South Caucasus and American policy for the region will hinge on existing bipartisan frameworks and congressional initiatives rather than direct presidential involvement, according to an analysis by Vita van Dreven of The Hague Institute for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. She explores how the Trump presidency might impact the South Caucasus, analysing potential policy directions and their implications for the region: