US Vice President J.D, Vance has ended his whirlwind visit to the South Caucasus having been in Armenia on Monday (9th February), and Azerbaijan on Tuesday (10th February). It was a big success. Vance was on his best behavior, and went out of his way to be nice and complimentary to his hosts. In Yerevan, the Vice President and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a joint statement on the completion of negotiations on a 123 Agreement, which establishes a legally binding framework for peaceful nuclear cooperation between the U.S. and partner countries. While in Azerbaijan, Vance and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a Strategic Partnership Charter between the U.S. and Azerbaijan that covers regional connectivity, economic investment, and security and defense issues.  The guests were happy, and the hosts were delighted. Now it is time to put what was agreed in practice. That will be more challenging.

US Vice President JD Vance announced a $9 billion U.S. investment in Armenia’s nuclear energy sector during a visit to Yerevan, saying the two countries had completed negotiations on a civil nuclear cooperation framework that will enable joint projects, including the use of US small modular reactor technology. Vance said the initiative aims to strengthen Armenia’s energy security while creating jobs in the United States. At a joint briefing with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Vance also confirmed that Washington had approved the sale of V-BAT drones to Armenia in a deal worth $11 million. The US vice president voiced support for Pashinyan ahead of Armenia’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 7, describing him as a partner capable of building long-term cooperation with Washington. Vance also commented on the implementation of the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" project, which, in his opinion, will radically change the entire South Caucasus, open "a new world for international trade, transit and energy flows, and provide unprecedented connectivity between Armenia and neighboring countries." US Vice President Vance visited Armenia on Monday (9 February)>, where he held talks with prime minister Nikol Pashinyan. On Tuesday he is expected to go to Baku to meet President Ilham Aliyev.

One slogan at a pro-democracy Iran rally held in Berlin, one of many that took place in Europe this weekend, caught my attention. It said “No Shah, no Mullahs”. It caught the dilemma of many Iranians, inside and outside the country, that are being forced into a false choice between the present clerical regime, and the “Shah”, the son of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who ruled Iran from 1941 until the 1979 revolution. For most of the time, and certainly since 1953, the Shah was absolute ruler. Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was no democrat. He ruled as an absolute dictator, with the help of a secret policy that tortured and abused people. It is at best disingenuous, at worst an act of great folly and cynicism, that in the United States, the son and heir of Mohammed Reza Pahlavi is being promoted as the alternative to the clerical regime that currently rules Iran. Today Iran is also ready for change, but this change cannot be going back half a century in time. No Shah, no Mullahs, as the slogan in Berlin said. Its time for  Iran to turn the page, but this has to be done by the Iranian people in their own way. You cannot bomb a new regime to replace the present one. The Iranian system is resilient, and will not allow change imposed from outside. What will emerge will not be what Israel and the US wants, but it can be what the region needs: a peaceful, stable and prosperous Iran at peace with itself and its neighbours. Change is likely to come incrementally, and from inside the system. Many inside the system understand that change is needed. (click the image above to read Dennis Sammut's this week's Monday Commentary in full).