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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
US continues to bomb Iran

US continues to bomb Iran

A  seventh consecutive night iff attacks by United States forces on targets across Iran has left 10,000 people without water after a desalination plant was hit, with Iran retaliating by launching another wave of drones and missiles at US-allied Gulf states, according to the Qataru Channel Al Jazeera. Hamzeh Pour, chief executive of the Hormozgan Water and Wastewater Company, was quoted by the Tasnim news agency on Saturday as saying that a seawater pumping station and a power transformer at the Bunji desalination plant in Jask in southern Iran were “completely destroyed”, depriving 20 villages of water. Iran’s retaliation also targeted civilian infrast ructure, a war crime under international humanitarian law. In the early hours of Saturday, Kuwait announced the closure of its airspace and said two power and water desalination plants were hit by Iranian attacks. Several Kuwaiti firefighters were wounded while responding to a fire sparked by the strikes, the country’s firefighting force said. Air raid sirens also sounded repeatedly in Bahrain, where authorities urged residents to seek shelter. In Jordan, authorities said they intercepted 10 Iranian ballistic missiles. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its naval forces had targeted a US military fuel pier at Kuwait’s al-Ahmadi port and a US warplane assembly site at Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa Air Base. The IRGC also said it attacked a US base in Azraq in Jordan, claiming to have destroyed two American fighter jets. The Iranian attacks came after the US military’s Central Command, or CENTCOM, announced it had carried another wave of overnight strikes targeting “surveillance sites, military logistics infrastructure, underground weapons storage, and maritime capabilities” in Iran. (click image to read more)
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News
Donald Trump’s extraordinary TV address

Donald Trump’s extraordinary TV address

United States President Donald Trump has delivered an extraordinary prime time television speech, alleging government “cover-ups” and “vulnerability” in the nation’s electoral system. He made broad accusations about a “deep state” conspiracy involving his Democratic predecessors, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and he lashed out at familiar foes, including the news media and China. For years, Trump has spread baseless claims that his loss in the 2020 presidential election was “rigged” and “stolen”. Trump stopped short of repeating his false claim that he had, in fact, won that race. But in his remarks, he sought to raise suspicion about the election’s outcome, pointing to declassified government documents. Those files, however, painted a more nuanced picture than Trump portrayed, and they failed to substantiate his claims of a conspiracy. After the speech, Democrats criticised Trump for attempting to mislead the public and reduce confidence in the US electoral system, with months to go until the November midterm election.
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News
Donald Trump’s extraordinary TV address

Donald Trump’s extraordinary TV address

United States President Donald Trump has delivered an extraordinary prime time television speech, alleging government “cover-ups” and “vulnerability” in the nation’s electoral system. He made broad accusations about a “deep state” conspiracy involving his Democratic predecessors, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and he lashed out at familiar foes, including the news media and China. For years, Trump has spread baseless claims that his loss in the 2020 presidential election was “rigged” and “stolen”. Trump stopped short of repeating his false claim that he had, in fact, won that race. But in his remarks, he sought to raise suspicion about the election’s outcome, pointing to declassified government documents. Those files, however, painted a more nuanced picture than Trump portrayed, and they failed to substantiate his claims of a conspiracy. After the speech, Democrats criticised Trump for attempting to mislead the public and reduce confidence in the US electoral system, with months to go until the November midterm election. One of the biggest accusations of the night was levied against China, the US’s geopolitical rival. “Starting during the 2020 election cycle, the People’s Republic of China carried out what is believed to be the largest compromise of election data in history,” Trump said near the outset of his speech. He claimed that Beijing, through “illicit” means, had acquired 220 million US voter files, including names, addresses and party preferences. “Think of that: Tens of millions of voters’ data in 18 states have been bought, stolen or hacked by China,” Trump said. A spokesperson for China’s embassy denied such claims, saying the country “has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the US”. Trump, however, did not say that the information had been used to influence any election. But critics pointed out that such voter information is already publicly available. Some states even sell that public data, for prices ranging from $0 to $37,000, as the US Election Assistance Commission explained in a 2020 report. The documents declassified by the White House also appeared to indicate Beijing was, at least in part, drawing from publicly available data. It did, however, express curiosity at China’s increasing interest in such information. “While the PRC [People’s Republic of China] government has historically demonstrated interest in US elections, this is a newly-identified interest for this individual actor,” a heavily redacted assessment said. “The US voter registration information is available for public download, with 2021 voter registration information available for some states.”  (click image to read more)
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News
10th anniversary of a failed coup that redefined Turkiye

10th anniversary of a failed coup that redefined Turkiye

Ten years ago, parts of the Turkish military attempted to overthrow the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The consequences of the failed coup continue to shape Turkiye to this day.  It was the evening of July 15, 2016. A warm summer day was coming to an end. Many people were spending their Friday evening with friends or family, looking forward to the weekend. There was nothing to suggest that Turkiye was about to be fundamentally transformed. Then, just a few hours later, tanks were rolling through the streets. Fighter jets flying over Ankara and Istanbul. Soldiers blocking the Bosphorus Bridge, the link between Europe and Asia. The parliament in Ankara came under fire. Turkish President Recep Tayip Erdogan called on the public via a video call broadcast to take to the streets and stop the coup. The coup attempt failed that very night, but its political consequences continue to impact the country The Turkish government blamed the Gulen movement for the coup attempt. Its founder, the Muslim cleric Fetullah Gulen was based in the United States. The government accused Gulen of having infiltrated the judiciary, police, military, and other state institutions with followers over decades in an effort to undermine the state. Gulen and his followers denied any involvement in the coup. Many high-ranking military officials with alleged ties to Gulen were arrested.. Gulen died in the US aged 83 in the US in 2024. In Turkey, July 15 is now a national holiday. The former Bosphorus Bridge was renamed the "Bridge of the Martyrs of July 15." It commemorates the people who lost their lives that night. According to official figures, 253 people died, most of them civilians. Many streets, squares and schools also bear the name "July 15". However, the anniversary is not just about commemorating the victims. It also marks a profound political turning point. The Gulen movement was designated a terrorist organization, and its alleged supporters were largely extracted from the state apparatus. Six days after the coup, parliament approved a state of emergency. It was initially limited to three months but did not end until July 19, 2018. During those two years, the president governed largely by emergency decrees, issuing 32 decrees in total. The consequences of these political purges have been enormous. More than 125,000 members of the civil service and the armed forces were dismissed. According to official figures, approximately 390,000 people had been detained or arrested between 2016 and 2025 on suspicion of ties to Gulen.