Kazakh parliamentary election polls project victory for ruling party despite big losses

A poll released by the Strategy Center for Social and Political Studies in Kazakhstan has projected victory for the ruling Amanat party despite heavy losses in the upcoming 19 March parliamentary election.

In the poll that surveyed 1,600 people between 17 and 27 February, 43.6% said they would vote for the ruling Amanat party, the former party of the current president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

This is however considerably lower than what the party received in the 2021 elections, when it received 71.09% of the vote, according to the Central Electoral Commission.

Madi Omarov, political scientist and project coordinator at the Strategy Center, said that the "significant decrease in the support for the party is most likely due to several factors, including President Tokayev’s resignation as party leader, rebranding, and the decline in popularity after the events of January 2022."

Meanwhile, 11.3% said they would vote for the Aq Jol party, 9.9% said they would vote for the Auyl party, 6.3% said they would vote for the People's Party, and 6.2% would vote for the Respublika party.

Click here to read more about the parties and their priorities

In order to win seats in the parliament, known as the Mazhilis, parties must pass a 5% threshold.

Speaking to The Astana Times, Omarov said that "the number of MPs of the ruling Amanat party should significantly decrease. They will probably manage to reach the required number to get a majority through single-mandate constituencies."

He did suggest, however, that it could be possible "for the first time in the history of Kazakhstan’s parliamentarism, this party [Amanat] will have to form a majority coalition with another party.”

In the same poll, turnout was predicted at 59%. 

22.7% respondents said they would "definitely go to the polls", while 36.3% said they would "probably vote".

38.6% of the respondents do not intend to vote, including 25% who are likely not to vote and 13.6% who said they will definitely not vote.

source: commonspace.eu with The Astana Times
photo: The Astana Times

Related articles

Editor's choice
News
Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell tells the European Parliament that the situation in Afghanistan was critical, but the EU will remain engaged

Borrell underlined that the European Union will make every effort to support the peace process and to remain a committed partner to the Afghan people. "Of course, we will have to take into account the evolving situation, but disengagement is not an option.  We are clear on that: there is no alternative to a negotiated political settlement, through inclusive peace talks.
Editor's choice
News
US and Ukraine sign deal giving US access to country’s valuable mineral wealth

US and Ukraine sign deal giving US access to country’s valuable mineral wealth

The United States and Ukraine have signed a minerals deal after a two-month delay, in what President Donald Trump's administration called a new form of US commitment to Kyiv after the end of military aid. Ukraine said it secured key interests after protracted negotiations, including full sovereignty over its own rare earths, which are vital for new technologies and largely untapped. Trump had initially demanded rights to Ukraine's mineral wealth as compensation for US weapons sent under former president Joe Biden after Russia invaded just over three years ago.

Popular

Editor's choice
News
US and Ukraine sign deal giving US access to country’s valuable mineral wealth

US and Ukraine sign deal giving US access to country’s valuable mineral wealth

The United States and Ukraine have signed a minerals deal after a two-month delay, in what President Donald Trump's administration called a new form of US commitment to Kyiv after the end of military aid. Ukraine said it secured key interests after protracted negotiations, including full sovereignty over its own rare earths, which are vital for new technologies and largely untapped. Trump had initially demanded rights to Ukraine's mineral wealth as compensation for US weapons sent under former president Joe Biden after Russia invaded just over three years ago.