Social media usage and Armenia's 2026 election

On June 7, Armenians voted in a parliamentary election that returned Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract to power with a little less than half of all votes. This election, however, was not only fought in the traditional sense; it was also fought in an online information environment shaped by disinformation, diasporic relations, and a history of censorship.

Seventy years of Soviet state media left Armenians in a difficult reality. In 2001, 96.8% of the population reported having little trust in mass media, indicating a deep-seated suspicion of official information sources. Although these numbers have shifted over the last 25 years, the willingness of the Armenian people to turn to alternative media has consistently reflected this distrust. By 2024, around two-thirds of Armenians utilised social media as a primary news outlet; however, this figure is somewhat misleading, as traditional media still dominates those above 45 and in rural populations. Social media has taken a unique position in Armenia, not by supplementing already well-established journalism, but by filling a vacuum.

It was in 2018 that social media first became a well-utilised tool in Armenian politics. Pashinyan's strategy of bypassing captured broadcast media relied on multiple new media platforms, each with distinct functionalities: Facebook Live as a broadcast infrastructure, Telegram as a closed coordination tool, and livestreaming as a real-time accountability mechanism that made violence against protesters instantly costly and visible. With traditional media aligned with the ruling party, reporters had to follow Facebook groups and Telegram conversations to find out where protests would be held and what ideas would circulate; the distinction between online platforms and the press had effectively disappeared. Crucially, though, the underlying media structure that had produced this reality did not change; only the government had. Public distrust in the media continued, and Armenia's information environment remained susceptible to manipulation.

That underlying distrust carried into the 2021 elections, where social and new media again proved a valuable political tool, although this time the strategies initially utilised to mobilise were instead deployed to polarise. The same platforms that had enabled horizontal civic communication in 2018 became vectors for blame, conspiracy, and grief, a shift shaped in large part by the trauma of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. Telegram underwent a key infrastructural shift in this regard: unlike Facebook, which is more easily monitorable, Telegram's closed channel architecture made coordinated disinformation almost impossible to track in real time. Most political groups in Armenia effectively established a communication strategy built on emotional registers of betrayal, loss, and national humiliation; registers that would come to dominate short-form political content five years later.

By 2026, Armenia’s information environment remained shaped by these accumulated realities. Over the last 5 years, social media usage has only become more diverse, influenced by a culmination of factors such as age, gender, interests, and socioeconomic class. Social media usage had grown more diverse, influenced by age, gender, interests, and socioeconomic class, and a new set of tools had entered the picture. Short-form content became a major player in political communication, with TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram all serving as platforms for fast-paced content well suited to the dissemination of disinformation. An analysis by Respense examined around 57,561 media mentions across websites, Telegram, Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, X, and broadcast television; a reflection of Armenia's pluralistic yet polarized information space. Social media was utilised by both major parties in the run-up to the election, creating a competing reality where outlets were instrumentalised to amplify mutual insults and divisive campaign rhetoric, offering little substantive analysis of policy platforms. Notably, around 17.5% of all TikTok videos analysed were labeled high risk for disinformation.

The disinformation that circulated reflected strategies well-known and well-tested around the world. Themes centred on emotional pulls familiar from 2021: betrayal, loss, and national humiliation. These themes were built into fear-driven narratives designed to exploit public anxieties surrounding peace efforts and the existential threat of renewed conflict. The data reflects this starkly: the two primary opposition narratives were ‘the government betrayed Nagorno-Karabakh’, generating 1,230 videos and 15.9 million views, and ‘the 2026 elections will be rigged’, generating 594 videos and 10 million views. It should be noted that Pashinyan remains the political actor in Armenia with the largest single online following, though the opposition collectively pulled in approximately twice the amount of views. Pashinyan's own narratives followed a similar emotional logic, engaging public anxieties surrounding peace efforts by warning that a war with Azerbaijan was imminent should the opposition win.

Alongside emotionally driven narratives came the use of AI-generated multimedia and deepfakes: fabricated clips designed to look like news broadcasts, showing falsified documents to discredit political candidates and front pages of well-known international newspapers impersonated to lend false credibility to fabricated stories. A further identifiable strategy was the use of foreign bots and influence networks, placing false information on foreign platforms and then legitimising and spreading it through official and unofficial channels of regional actors. Many domestic online spaces also exhibited a pay-to-play dynamic, with political entities buying manipulated digital visibility and sponsoring pages to push targeted attacks on opponents. Social media was no longer simply a space for communication and mobilisation; it was used simultaneously to mobilise, legitimise, disinform, and suppress

To understand the scale of the problem, it is worth mapping the specific clusters of disinformation that circulated during the campaign. The content was not random; it was calculated and drawn on deep wells of public anxiety that have been building in Armenia for years. The dominant cluster was security-based, with the most widely circulated narratives portraying Armenia on a path toward military confrontation, with the drawing of comparisons to Ukraine's lived experience. These narratives were frequently delivered through fabricated news content. Hundreds of fake videos had been published by early May 2026 alone, including fabricated clips falsely claiming that NATO instructors were present in Armenia and that a military conflict with Russia would be provoked after the election. Security fears were especially potent given Armenia's lived memory of violence, and disinformation consistently exploited this wound. The second major cluster concerned Nagorno-Karabakh itself, with disinformation narratives spreading falsities, especially among the Armenian diasporas in Russia, blaming the current government for the consequences derived from the conflict. An inherent attempt to frame the conflict as an emotional binary reality, removing the complex regional context that exists.

The third cluster focused on economic realities, with false narratives about the economy being prevalent throughout the campaigns. This included fabricated claims about what EU integration entails and what it would mean for Armenian households, jobs, and trade. These were reinforced by real economic pressures, as in late May 2026, Russia's consumer protection agency temporarily suspended imports and added restrictions on Armenian flower exports to Russia; a move perfectly timed to coincide with the electoral campaign, recalling the economic pressure Russia had applied to Moldova and Georgia when those countries pursued European integration. A fourth cluster operated on cultural and identity lines, linking geopolitical messaging in order to reach audiences otherwise indifferent to foreign policy debates. This included fabricated claims that EU integration carried a mandatory condition to sever Armenia's ties with the Russian Orthodox Church, a narrative cynically designed to weaponise religious identity and stoke fear that European alignment would threaten centuries of spiritual tradition. Perhaps the most corrosive was the institutional trust cluster. Much of this disinformation was explicitly designed not to persuade voters toward any particular outcome, but simply to erode confidence in the electoral process itself. The narratives aimed to undermine democratic practices and break trust in institutions. This form of disinformation is arguably the most durable, because even after a vote is concluded and results are certified, the doubt it plants can continue to linger.

What made the 2026 campaign distinct from previous Armenian information environments was not simply the volume of disinformation, but rather the sophistication of its delivery infrastructure. Politically affiliated networks created fake media websites, impersonated journalists and legitimate news outlets, and amplified false narratives through influencers and interconnected websites in an attempt to make fabricated stories seem credible. The result was a layered information environment in which it was genuinely difficult for ordinary users to differentiate between authentic journalism, domestic political messaging, and foreign-produced fabrication. It is important to note that foreign and domestic disinformation did not operate in isolation; they fed each other, amplified each other's emotional registers, and collectively produced an information space that was structurally hostile to nuance.

Despite the scale of the operations, not all of the disinformation had its intended effect. The relationship between disinformation and public belief is not automatic, as context, lived experiences, and pre-existing trust levels all shape how different narratives land. International observers reported that authorities took steps to address disinformation, though the transparency and effectiveness of these efforts were limited. Civil society organisations, independent fact-checkers, and media literacy initiatives did attempt to counter false claims in real time. The Armenian government itself used the same social media platforms carrying disinformation to run voter education campaigns. The fact that this was necessary at all is itself significant, as the information environment had become so contested that the state felt compelled to compete within it rather than regulate from above.

Armenia's trajectory with social media mirrors a pattern visible across post-Soviet and democratising states: early adoption as a tool of liberation, followed by instrumentalisation as a tool of control, polarisation, and manipulation. The 2018 Velvet Revolution demonstrated the emancipatory ceiling, and the 2021 and 2026 elections demonstrated the adversarial floor. The most plausible near-term trajectory, hence, is not a resolution of this tension but the entrenchment of it. This is especially as short-form video content continues to grow in popularity, particularly among younger Armenians, meaning the speed at which emotional narratives can be distributed will outpace institutional fact-checking capacity. AI-generated multimedia lowers the production cost of disinformation to near-zero. And as long as the underlying condition persists, a population with high social media use but historically low institutional media trust, every new platform becomes a new vector for the same structural vulnerability. The hopeful reading is not naive optimism. Armenia has a growing civil society, a generation politically formed by the experience of 2018, and a population that has now, demonstrably, lived through a major coordinated disinformation campaign and retained enough critical capacity to assess it. The question for the coming years is whether media literacy, platform accountability, and institutional reform can develop quickly enough to match the pace of the threat, or whether the conversation will remain fatally one-directional.

Source: Santiago Ferbel-Azcarate is a Senior Research Assistant at LINKS Europe Foundation.

Latest

Editor's choice
Monday Commentary
Monday Commentary: PEACE IN OUR TIME?

Monday Commentary: PEACE IN OUR TIME?

Making peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan was never going to be simple, nor easy, nor quick. It is taking time, writes Dennis Sammut in this Monday Commentary. “There is a sense of realism coming from the leaders of the two countries – President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and prime minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia, that frankly, is necessary and welcome”, he writes. At a time when conflicts are raging all over the world – from Ukraine to the Gulf, from Africa to South Asia, the prospect that Armenia and Azerbaijan had finally, after decades of conflict that left thousands of dead and many more displaced, decided on embarking on a journey of peace was welcomed. Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be top-down up to a point. Both leaders have spent political capital preparing for a peace deal. But both are aware that their people are not ready for peace yet. In fact, in Armenia, most of the elite are negative toward a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan needs time to persuade his countryfolk. That is why 2031 is realistic. Ilham Aliyev runs a tighter shop, but he is also not immune to public opinion. Every time someone hits a landmine in Karabakh, which unfortunately happens often, peace comes into question. Which is why Aliyev chooses to sound hardline, more often than not. In pursuing the peace agenda, both Aliyev and Pashinyan need to proceed cautiously. But they are right in making peace the central issue in their agenda. It is the main issue, and the one that will define them in history. So forward, cautiously but resolutely! In pursuing the peace agenda, Aliyev and Pashinyan need to be supported clearly and unambiguously. There are too many people in Baku and Yerevan who are sitting on the sides, waiting. The international community is not doing enough. It is time to be counted. Otherwise, the spoilers will win, and the region will go back to its bad habits. (Click the image to read the full commentary).
Editor's choice
News
UN Security Council Presidential Statement on the Role of Diplomacy during Active Hostilities

UN Security Council Presidential Statement on the Role of Diplomacy during Active Hostilities

The United Nations Security Council is today expected to adopt a presidential statement on the role of diplomacy during active hostilities. The draft text, which was authored by Pakistan, underscores the importance of maintaining diplomatic engagement even after the outbreak of armed conflict, with a view to containing escalation, facilitating cessations of hostilities and ceasefires, and creating conditions conducive to peaceful political settlements. Resolution 2788 of 22 July 2025, which was initiated by Pakistan, reaffirmed the Council’s commitment to the peaceful settlement of disputes under Chapter VI of the UN Charter. A year later, on 23 July, the Council convened an open debate to review the resolution’s implementation and examine ways of making more effective use of the peaceful dispute settlement tools available under Chapter VI.   The draft presidential statement builds on previous Council products, such as resolution 2788, but it is the first to focus specifically on the role of diplomacy in containing and de-escalating active hostilities. Since the open debate in July, Council members have continued to call for intensified efforts towards de-escalation and dialogue, although differences persist over how proactively the Council should promote mediation and other peaceful means of dispute settlement, particularly in situations where the consent of the parties is contested. In his statement opening the general debate of the 81st session of the General Assembly on 22 September, Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted the devastating consequences of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, and the Middle East, warning that these and other crises illustrate what happens when “force outpaces diplomacy” and stressing the urgency of sustained diplomatic engagement. The negotiations on the draft presidential statement do not appear to have been particularly contentious, although Council members expressed differing views on some elements of the text. Pakistan circulated the initial draft to Council members on 14 October. Following informal consultations with Council members to address comments on the initial draft, Pakistan circulated a first revised draft on 23 October, incorporating several proposed amendments. On 29 October, Pakistan circulated a second revised draft, which it placed under silence procedure until the following day (30 October). After the US broke silence, a third revised draft was circulated on 3 November and placed under silence procedure until this morning (4 November). The draft subsequently passed silence. The agreed presidential statement emphasises the importance of maintaining direct and indirect channels of communication between parties to armed conflict to reduce the risk of miscalculation and create opportunities for sustained political engagement. (click image to read more)

Popular

Editor's choice
Monday Commentary
Monday Commentary: European-Azerbaijan relations need an intensive and multifaceted dialogue that is frank and honest

Monday Commentary: European-Azerbaijan relations need an intensive and multifaceted dialogue that is frank and honest

Last week I visited Baku, Azerbaijan. My visit was relatively short, but very intensive, and had many meetings with stakeholders and colleagues. When I arrived in Baku first time in 1996,  Azerbaijan was a different country: weak, poor, and shaken by defeat in war. For thirty year the Karabakh issue dominated the agenda: the political agenda but also the popular mindset. Now, thirty years later, Azerbaijan has returned to Karabakh, and peace with Armenia is on the horizon. It is a new era for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, for the South Caucasus, but also for Europe.  But we cannot be complacent: the Peace agreement has been initialed but not signed; borders remain closed; TRIPP is ambitious but remains an idea; and there are spoilers who want to turn the clock back. We must not allow them, and in this Europe and Azerbaijan must work together. Europe’ vanguard organization is the European Union – it is a free union of 27 member states; it is a strong global economic force, and increasingly a diplomatic and military force too. But it remains “work in progress” and can often appear dysfunctional. It often lacks collective and institutional memory. In its dealings with Azerbaijan the EU has made many mistakes – not least opening the delegation here late – in 2008. It sometimes appears condescending. Some utterances from the European Parliament and from some quarters in some member states are not understandable even for me. They irritate the Azerbaijanis, but serve no other purpose But Azerbaijan has also not handled relations with the EU well. It has failed to respond when the hand of friendship reached out; and it confused irritating actions, sometimes by well-meaning people; sometimes by outright spoilers, with strategic action. In short, EU-Azerbaijan relations have suffered from a lack of proper dialogue. This dialogue must be frank, honest and multi-faceted involving different segments of society on both sides.   Is Azerbaijan Europe? When Azerbaijan applied to join the Council of Europe in the 1990s, there were some who opposed, saying this was not Europe. I was one of the people who argued that Armenia and Azerbaijan may be on the periphery of the continent geographically, but were European in essence. Certainly their elites. During the discussion on 4 September in Baku, my friend Farhad Mammedov, mentioned that Azerbaijan is not interested in joining the EU, and was now close to the Central Asian countries in the 5 plus 1 format. Neither things mean that Azerbaijan is not Europe. There are several European countries that are not in the EU, and do not want to be, for example Norway and Switzerland. Iceland has recently voted to stay out of the EU. The UK was a member and left. Europe is bigger than the EU, and the holding of the European Political Community summit in Baku in 2027 proves that. Despite all the rhetoric, I never heard the president of Azerbaijan  saying that Azerbaijan is not Europe, nor have I heard any European president say it either. Not wanting to join the EU and forging close relations with neighbouring regions does not make Azerbaijan any less European. It is only logical that when Europeans talk to Azerbaijan they talk like family. The conversation is often frank. It must also be honest, and Europeans need always to remember this too. A frank, honest and multi-faceted dialogue A frank, honest and multifaceted dialogue will contribute to relations between Azerbaijan and the rest of Europe: it will avoid misperception, which unfortunately is very common on both sides; it will provide a forum where problems can be discussed and resolved, and it will increase mutual trust, so that together common problems can be addressed. (click image to read the full Monday Commentary)
Editor's choice
Monday Commentary
Monday Commentary: “The barren rocks of Aden” and “These lands of Yemen are so ruthless”

Monday Commentary: “The barren rocks of Aden” and “These lands of Yemen are so ruthless”

There are two early 20th-century tunes that mark foreign attempts to occupy and “pacify” Yemen. The Scottish tune “The barren rocks of Aden” marks the mobilisation of Highland soldiers, enlisted to be deployed to the Yemeni port of Aden, that in 1837 became the last colony to be incorporated into the British Empire. The tune talks of the harshness of the terrain, but is celebratory, It was even played as a farewell tune to Sir William Luce at the parade in Sharjah celebrating his end as “British Viceroy” in the Middle East in 1966. The second tune is an Anatolian lament. As Ilker Sezer reminded us this weekend, in his weekly feature on “Turkiye Today”, it “mourns the tragic fate of Ottoman soldiers dispatched to the harsh, remote deserts of Yemen during the fall of the empire, young men who marched away from their villages and never returned home. Most of their names, and numbers, were never recorded. Yet, their fate left a mark on the Turkish psyche.” Subsequent invaders have discovered that Yemen is a grave that cannot be overcome by the strength of modern technology, and that whilst Yemeni society is splintered and divided, building a reliable alliance with Yemeni factions is difficult. These are the harsh lessons facing Saudi Arabia, as the Kingdom faces its biggest challenge in its modern history. The leadership of the Kingdom now has to respond decisively. At stake is their very credibility. This is likely to be a long and messy conflict. Saudi military objectives need to be focused: to box in the Houthis rather than destroy them. This is likely to include: (a) regaining territory lost on the Red Sea coast; (b) control over Bab el Mandeb Strait; (c) some kind of cordon sanitaire on the Saudi-Yemeni border; and if things go well (d) the capture of Sanaa. All this would not eliminate the Houthi problem, but it will contain it. In the end the Saudis will have to continue managing Yemen with a mixture of carrot and stick. For the moment, the stick is likely, but the carrot cannot be forgotten either. (click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)