Radicalisation

In this week's Monday Commentary, Dr. Dennis Sammut discusses the impact of the US-Iran war on the Arab states of the Gulf. He argues that the crises is a test of their resilience, and that change is inevitable. "On 28 February, Donald Trump connived with Israel to attack Iran, thinking that the US military strength will easily sweep away the Islamic Republic. He did so without seeking the views of experts within the American bureaucracy, getting the necessary congressional and cross-party support, and importantly without consulting with his allies in the region, in NATO, and beyond. The result has been a terrible and costly failure. The Islamic Republic has survived, despite loosing its supreme leader and top officials, and is even emboldened. The limits of US military power has been exposed, and China and others are watching carefully. Allies are distancing themselves from the US, and the cost for global and American economy, has been huge." "But the harshest costs of Trump’s miscalculation is being paid by the Arab states, on and around the Arabian peninsula. Over the last five decades the GCC countries have largely bought themselves out of any problems which they faced. Three of them at least – Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE, have the stamina to do so again if necessary. But the question remains, will it be enough this time?" The world must be prepared for a changing region. Europe in particular needs to be able to deal with the new reality, and to do this with an open mind. In March of this year I wrote that by attacking Iran, Trump had opened “pandora’s box”. That has definitely been the case for the US. Others however may take heart from the saying that “from every crises, an opportunity arises”. (click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)