Diplomacy

A second Trump presidency is unlikely to bring a sharp focus to the South Caucasus and American policy for the region will hinge on existing bipartisan frameworks and congressional initiatives rather than direct presidential involvement, according to an analysis by Vita van Dreven of The Hague Institute for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. She explores how the Trump presidency might impact the South Caucasus, analysing potential policy directions and their implications for the region:

Donald Trump aged 78 was sworn in as the 47th president of the US and pledged in his inauguration address to rescue America from what he described as years of betrayal and decline, prioritizing a crackdown on illegal immigration. Trump declared his intention to sign a number of executive actions in his first hours as president, including a number focused on border security and immigration, his top priority. Trump announced a "national emergency" at the US-Mexico border, declared drug cartels as terrorists, and will scrap government diversity programmes. His vice president, JD Vance, was sworn in just before him.

Donald Trump aged 78 was sworn in as the 47th president of the US and pledged in his inauguration address to rescue America from what he described as years of betrayal and decline, prioritizing a crackdown on illegal immigration. Trump declared his intention to sign a number of executive actions in his first hours as president, including a number focused on border security and immigration, his top priority. Trump announced a "national emergency" at the US-Mexico border, declared drug cartels as terrorists, and will scrap government diversity programmes. His vice president, JD Vance, was sworn in just before him.

The working visit by the Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze to Azerbaijan on January 17 suggests that both countries recognise that close cooperation is essential for ensuring stability and fostering prosperity in the region. During the visit, Kobakhidze met with Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov and participated in a session of the joint intergovernmental commission, which included delegations from both countries. The discussions revolved around the partnership between the two countries, bolstering trade and economic ties, as well as expanding cooperation in the energy and transportation sectors.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan launched the U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission on January 14 marking the latest milestone in the bilateral relationship between the two countries.  The United States and Armenia signed the strategic partnership agreement at the State Department in Washington expanding cooperation in security and several of areas as Yerevan appears to distance itself from Russia, a traditional. The United States is "working with Armenia in the realm of security and defense, and in particular, to support its efforts to assert its independence and sovereignty over its own territory," Blinken said at the signing ceremony.

When I moved to Yerevan in October 1998, it was rare to hear much positive conversation about the future of Armenia or Karabakh. That had also been the case when I visited the country on a research trip earlier that June. Many were already tired of the conflict and few seemed enthused with a new regime that had just come to power after the ousting the country's first president earlier that year. Levon Ter-Petrosyan had chosen to resign following a palace coup staged by his inner circle opposed to a concessionary peace deal with Azerbaijan. They thought the deal proposed by a troika of France, Russia, and the United States was a betrayal. Ter-Petrosyan warned that it might well be the best Armenia could ever hope for.

The EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Magdalena Grono paid her first official visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan from 7 to 11 January 2025. According to the official X account of the EUSR for the South Caucasus, valued in-depth exchanges of views were held with the leaderships and officials in both capitals on how best to advance peace, normalisation efforts and regional cooperation. The EU Special Representative also referred to the need to develop bilateral relations between the EU and the two countries. The EU Special Representative also stated she had exchanges with local civic societies but did not make specific references to any organisations.

The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment for Turkmenistan as it commemorates three decades of its established status as a neutral state, coinciding with the International Year of Peace and Trust – a worldwide initiative championed by Turkmenistan itself. This dual celebration underscores the nation’s enduring influence in fostering international peace, development, and diplomatic harmony.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process began the new year with a bombshell revelation: a video recording from the first congress of the “Yerkrapah” Volunteer Union in July 1993. The footage features Armenia’s first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, delivering a speech on the “success” of Armenia’s “national liberation movement.” The speech, along with the reaction of Vazgen Sargsyan – leader of “Yerkrapah” and Armenia's Defense Minister in the early 1990s – holds significant political, legal, and humanitarian implications for the ongoing peace negotiations between the two countries.