Diplomacy

After an erratic 2022, which saw prospects for peace and normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and between Armenia and Turkey, swing between unprecedented new heights and familiar lows, and after a rather pessimistic start for 2023 when diplomacy appeared to have to come to dead end, March has started with cautious optimism in the air, and the prospect of a historic Spring breakthrough appears within reach. This is due to the convergence of a number of factors and developments, some anticipated and some not. The ten developments that offer cause for optimism are: US brokered talks between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Munich; the deployment of an EU Monitoring Mission; the revival of the Brussels format; internet diplomacy; the ruling of the International Court of Justice; a fluid political situation in Stepanakert; Baku and Stepanakert holding direct talks; earthquake diplomacy between Armenia and Turkey; the limitations of Russia’s power and influence have been exposed; and more confident leaderships in both Baku and Yerevan.

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has headed to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on his first official visit to the region as President Biden’s top diplomat. Announcing his departure from US soil overnight on 26-27 February, Secretary of State Blinken said that he was looking forward to “advancing our Central Asian partnerships”. After visiting the Kazakh and Uzbek capitals, he would then head to India for the coming G20 summit. The timing of the visit is notable, coming only days after the first anniversary of Russia’s disastrous full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which as one of its consequences has seen Central Asia reassert itself regionally and rapidly explore ties with other neighbouring power blocs including the EU, the Middle East, and China. On 28 February, Blinken had a joint meeting in Astana with the foreign ministers of all five Central Asian nations: Mukhtar Tileuberdi of Kazakhstan; Jeenbek Kulubaev of Kyrgyzstan; Rasit Meredov of Turkmenistan; Sirojiddin Muhriddin of Tajikistan; and Bakhtiyor Saidov of Uzbekistan. He also met with each FM in person in Astana, with the exception of the latter, whom he met later in Tashkent.

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine one year ago the prevalent feeling among the Arab Gulf states was that they did not want to get involved.  Some thought the best policy was to ignore it, others that they should at the very least dodge it, and some even saw in it some opportunity to extend relations with Russia and China.  There were a number of reasons for this. The region was frustrated with how the west dealt with it. It expected a more equal relationship that never properly materialised. There was fatigue at western attempts – some clearly ill-judged – at interfering in the Arab region, and conversely, disappointment at western failure to stand up to Iran. The unsightly US departure from Afghanistan, and talk of American strategic re-positioning, convinced some that the American moment in the Gulf had passed.

The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has arrived in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Thursday (23 February), one day before the one year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The visit from PM Sanchez comes one day after Spain confirmed that it would send six refurbished Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, with the goal to have the tanks in Ukraine by the end of March or early April. Writing on Twitter, PM Sanchez said, "We will stand by Ukraine and its people until peace returns to Europe." He has also visited Bucha, the Kyiv suburb infamously known as the site of many alleged Russian war crimes against civilians in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion. "Bucha and Irpin show the wounds and scars of Putin's barbarism. Russia is not going to win this war. All of Spain is with Ukraine," he said. Sanchez's visit is the latest in a number of high-profile visits to Kyiv in the run up to the 24 February. US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit on Monday during which he pledged another $500m of military aid. Then, on Tuesday, the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Kyiv for talks with President Zelensky, during which she pledged to continue supporting Ukraine in resisting Russian attacks but ruled out offering fighter jets.

The President of the United States Joe Biden has made a surprise visit to Kyiv ahead of the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February last year. On Monday morning (20 February), there were reports of blocked roads and major traffic jams in the Ukrainian capital as speculation built over the potential arrival of an "important guest", according to Ukrainian officials.  The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and St Michael’s Cathedral has been blocked off with a police and military presence. Just before midday, pictures emerged on social media showing the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky walking alongside the US President Joe Biden in central Kyiv. As Joe Biden was seen walking beside Volodymyr Zelensky outside St Michael's Cathedral, heading towards a memorial wall honouring Ukrainian soldiers fallen in Russia's war against Ukraine since 2014, air raid sirens rang out over the Ukrainian capital. It was already known that Biden would be visiting Poland to mark one year of Russia's full-scale invasion, but his visit to Kyiv has come as a complete surprise.

The earthquake that hit Turkey and parts of Syria on 6 February was a massive tragedy. As of Thursday (16 February) it has left nearly fifty thousand people dead, many tens of thousands injured and millions affected directly or indirectly. The world rallied around the beleaguered communities, putting aside political differences and diplomatic obstacles. The impact of the earthquake on Turkey was enormous. Ten out of eighty one Turkish provinces were affected, and some Turkish towns were wiped away almost completely. Humanitarian aid started pouring into Turkey from every part of the world. The contribution of one small neighbouring country was particularly significant, not only as part of the humanitarian effort, but also for its political and diplomatic symbolism. Armenia and Turkey have had a difficult relationship for decades. The two neighbouring countries do not have diplomatic relations. Their borders are closed. Recent attempts to normalise relations appeared to be moving at very slow speed – both sides having to manoeuvre around many sensitive issues, and a heavy baggage of history. It took an earthquake to jolt relations out of decades of animosity.

The Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers Mevlut Cavusoglu and Ararat Mirzoyan have met in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Wednesday (15 February). The meeting followed an announcement from Armenian officials that a second Armenian aid convoy crossed the land border into Turkey late on Tuesday after the devastating 6 February earthquake which has killed over 40,000 people across Turkey and Syria. The meeting is being seen as a major development in the normalisation of ties between the two countries who do not enjoy any formal diplomatic relations and who remain divided over a number of issues. Mirzoyan expressed his "condolences to the families of the many thousands of victims of the devastating earthquake, the people and government of Turkey, and I wish swift recovery to all those injured." Recalling the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia that killed over 20,000 people, Mirzoyan said, "I believe that the international community must not remain indifferent towards any humanitarian crisis happening anywhere around the globe. And it was by this very principle that immediately after the devastating earthquake the government of Armenia made a decision to send rescuers and humanitarian aid to Turkey."