Diplomacy

For weeks, expectations were built up that a summit between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosted by European Council president, Charles Michel, French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, scheduled on the margins of the meeting of the European Political Community in Granada, Spain on 5 October, will give a stimulus to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Just a day before, however, Azerbaijan announced that President Ilham Aliyev will not attend. What could have been agreed in Granada? Speaking in the Armenian parliament on 4 October, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan outlined the points of a document that he said he had hoped could have been signed in Granada the next day had the Azerbaijani leader not cancelled his visit, but which he still felt could be signed at an opportune moment. Pashinyan outlined the three principles as: 1. Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity, based on the understanding that Armenia territory is 29800 square km while Azerbaijan territory is 86600 square km; 2. The Alma Ata declaration should be the political basis for border delimitation and later demarcation. It is important that before delimitation is made, agreement is reached on which maps delimitation and demarcation will be based on. This should be implemented based on the maps of 1975, but in principle, we may be flexible on this;   3. Restoration of communications of the region should take place based on the principles of sovereignty, laws, equality, and reciprocity of the countries.  

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking at prime minister's question time in the Armenian parliament on Wednesday (4 October), said that a document now exists which he was ready to sign, that was consistent with the logic of peace and stability in the region. Pashinyan said that he does not want to create a false impression that the document is against the interests of Azerbaijan and completely compatible with the interests of Armenia. "Armenia hopes that the conceptual document will be signed at an opportune moment. I am ready to sign it," he said. Earlier, the prime minister said that he had hoped that the document could have been signed in Granada on the margins of the European Political Community Summit on Thursday (5 October). It now transpires however that Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has refused to attend the summit. Pashinyan said he will attend the summit nonetheless. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that it is clear that there is now broad agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on at least a general document, which the Armenian prime minister called a "Conceptual Document", which may be the basis for a future, more comprehensive peace treaty. But all the sides are aware of broader sensitivities, and it seems that Russian pressure on Aliyev made him miss an important opportunity to take the peace process forward by signing the document in Granada this week. This is a highly risky gamble since circumstances can change very fast. One therefore hopes that the "opportune moment" mentioned by prime minister Pashinyan will come within days, not weeks.

On the eve of the expected meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Granada on Thursday (5 October), on the margins of the gathering of the European Political Community, Brussels' leading think tank, the European Policy Centre, has published a commentary by commonspace.eu Managing Editor and Director of LINKS Europe, Dr Dennis Sammut on the prospects of the EU's initiative to bring lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He argues that "the exodus of 100,000 Armenians from Karabakh following the recent Azerbaijani military operation has focused minds. However, as it pursues its peace initiative with Armenia and Azerbaijan, the EU’s primary objective is to get both sides to sign a peace agreement. Going forward, the EU needs to adopt a regional approach as the core of its engagement with the South Caucasus." Given the speed of changes on the ground, there is a risk that the EU peace initiative may run out of steam or become irrelevant since, at this point, Armenia-Azerbaijan relations can take different trajectories. Granada offers the last opportunity for a substantial peace agreement that would, at last, turn the page on an ugly chapter of modern South Caucasus history. It is unlikely that a substantial deal can be signed yet. Still, in Granada, it should become quite clear whether the conditions exist to overcome the final obstacles, with the sides formally recognising each other’s territorial integrity based on the borders stated in the 1991 Almati Declaration, and, eventually, by establishing full diplomatic relations. The EU needs to be strategic in its vision and focused on its approach. Getting an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal agreed and signed by the end of the year must now be the priority.

The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali Akbar Ahmadian, underscored Tehran's firm opposition to geopolitical changes in the region, and warned that any border change will bring about instability and insecurity and aggravate crises. Ahmadian made the comments in a Sunday meeting with Secretary of the National Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, in Tehran. The Iranian official pointed to the latest developments in the Caucasus region, and called on all parties to help establish peace in the region. The Iranian FARS news agency said that Ahmadian reaffirmed Iran's principled and unchanging policy on developing relations and interaction with the neighboring states and creating a region free of conflict. "Frank and constructive dialogue among regional countries will prepare the ground for [improving] sustainable security, balanced development and prosperity of the nations in the region," the SNSC secretary stated. Ahmadian voiced Iran's readiness to arrange a meeting among the regional states.

US President, Joe Biden, on Tuesday (19 September) met in New York on the margins of the UN General Assembly, the leaders of the five Central Asian Republics. Attending the meeting were the presidents of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This was the inaugural C5+1 presidential summit.   A readout from the White House said that the leaders discussed a range of issues, including security, trade and investment, regional connectivity, the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations, and ongoing reforms to improve governance and the rule of law. 

For a number of years, the United States has promoted a mechanism for dialogue with the five Central Asian Republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Known as the C5 + 1 these meetings have usually be en held at the level of foreign minister. The first meeting was held in 2015, and the mechanism now also has a secretariat to ensure continuation between meetings. Today (19 September) in New York, US president Joe Biden will take the relationship further, by upgrading the dialogue to presidential level. This is both symbolic and significant. For a long time the United States has been accused of abandoning Central Asia, tacitly accepting that this was Russia's back yard. Well if it ever was, it no longer is. China has become an even more important player in Central Asia than Russia, and the Central Asian Republics are desperately trying to open up to the world. A slow, painful but hugely necessary process of reform is taking place in the five countries, in some pursued with more enthusiasm than others. At today's meeting, President Biden is expected to give encouragement to this reform process, but the key message will be one of support for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the five countries - a welcome message in the region given Russia's continued pressures.  Also on the US president's agenda will be Afghanistan, which neighbours a number of the C5 countries. And of course there is the issue of sanctions against Russia as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has been trying to use the Central Asian republics to circumvent the sanctions. This is an important issue for the international community and the US president will seek the best way to secure the support of the C5 governments.

Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan was in Kazakhstan this as Türkiye intensifies its contacts with Central Asia, and the Turkic republics of the region with whom it shares strong historical and linguistic ties. In Astana, Fidan met with the country's president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Monday (11 September). This was Fidan's first visit to Kazakhstan after his appointment as Turkish Foreign Minister, He was previously head of the country's intelligence service. The visit is part of the preparations for the next summit of the Turkic States which will take place in Astana in November. The Organisation of Turkic States was established shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union as Türkiye sought to rebuild old historical and ethnic and linguistic ties with the region. But at the time Russian pressure stopped the governments of the region from getting too close to Turkiye. The situation is now very different, and with governments across Central Asia seeking new openings to the rest of the world, the Turkish connection is becoming increasingly important. Fidan conveyed greetings from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, highlighting that the Turkish side intends to make every effort to promote cooperation between the two countries and take interaction within regional and international structures to a new level. According to Fidan, the Turkish President plans to comprehensively discuss the prospects for strengthening the strategic partnership between the two states during his upcoming visit in November, which is set to coincide with the summit of the Organization of Turkic States.

The G20 summit opened in India's capital New Delhi on Saturday (9 September) with a speech by prime minister Narendra Modi during which he welcomed the African Union as the 21st member of the grouping, whose name will presumably now change to G21. It seems also that it is not the only name that is changing. The country name-plate in front of Modi during his speech did not say India, but Bharat. Commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that the G20 summit had become a coming of age party for India, as it projects increasing confidence and assertiveness in the international arena. Having recently celebrated the success of having a successful lunar mission, the summit was an opportunity to come down to earth with a bang. The decision of prime minister Modi to speak as the leader of Bharat was a symbolic gesture marking a break between the country and its long and often painful colonial era past. By securing the admittance of the African Union in the G20, India also consolidated its role as one of the leaders of the Global South - a role India actively played in the 1950s and 1960s under prime ministers Nehru and Gandhi, but one which in recent years appeared to take back stage to more immediate urgent issues. For the G20, India has thrown a lavish party. But guests were left under no illusion that this was not also a Modi celebration. The Indian prime minister faces a tough election next year, and appearing as the leader amongst global statesman helps the prime minister's image. A reminder perhaps that in India these things matter, because India is a democracy, and in the end it is the people that have the final word. One reason perhaps why two G20 leaders were conspicuously absent: President Xi of China, and President Putin of Russia. Their absence was noted, although not necessarily missed.