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Not quite there yet!

Not quite there yet!

The presidents of Ukraine and the United States were both upbeat after their talks on Sunday (28 December), but clearly there is yet no agreement on how to end the war in Ukraine. Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky said progress had been made during Florida talks but the US president admitted the problem of territory remained "unresolved". While both the US and Ukrainian presidents described the talks as "great", Trump said "one or two very thorny issues" remained outstanding - most notably on the issue of land. Addressing reporters at Mar-a-Lago, Zelensky said they had come to an agreement on "90%" of the 20-point peace plan, while Trump said a security guarantee for Ukraine was "close to 95%" done. Zelensky later said US and Ukrainian teams would meet next week for further talks on issues aimed at ending Russia's nearly four-year war in Ukraine. "We had a substantive conversation on all issues and highly value the progress that the Ukrainian and American teams have made over the past weeks," Zelensky said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Moscow currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory. A proposal to turn the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which Russia largely controls, into a demilitarised zone remains "unresolved", Trump said. "Some of that land has been taken," he told reporters after the meeting. "Some of that land is maybe up for grabs, but it may be taken over the next period of a number of months." Moscow currently controls about 75% of the Donetsk region, and some 99% of the neighbouring Luhansk. The regions are collectively known as Donbas. Russia wants Ukraine to pull back from the small part of the territory it still controls in Donbas, while Kyiv has insisted the area could become a free economic zone policed by Ukrainian forces. The US president has repeatedly changed his own position on Ukraine's lost territories, and in September stunned observers by suggesting that Ukraine might be able to take it back. He later reversed course. "[That] is a very tough issue," he said. "One that will get resolved." Security guarantees for Ukraine are "95% done", Trump said, without formally committing to logistical support or troop deployment to help protect Ukraine from future attacks. Trump floated the possibility of trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, saying it could happen "at the right time". Immediately after their bilateral talks, Trump and Zelensky held a one hour meeting with European leaders. European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, wrote on X "We had a good hour-long conversation with President Trump and Zelensky. Several European leaders were present and discussed future peace talks. Good progress has been made. Europe stands ready to work with its partners to consolidate this."  
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Israel recognises Somaliland, opening a pandora's box in Africa

Israel recognises Somaliland, opening a pandora's box in Africa

Israel ‍has recognized Somaliland as an "independent and sovereign state," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday. "Together with Foreign Minister Sa'ar and the President of the Republic of Somaliland, we signed a joint and mutual declaration," Netanyahu posted to X. "This declaration is in the spirit of the Abraham Accords signed at the initiative of President Trump," he said. In doing so, Israel became the first country to recognize the breakaway region. Somalia's Foreign Ministry denounced Israel's "deliberate attack" on its sovereignty and warned that recognizing Somaliland as an independent state would "undermine regional peace." "Illegitimate actions of this nature seriously undermine regional peace and stability, exacerbate political and security tensions," the ministry said in a statement. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said he held phone calls with his counterparts from Somalia, Turkey and Djibouti to discuss what they described as dangerous developments in the Horn of Africa, following Israel's announcement The ministers condemned Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, reaffirmed their full support for Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity, and warned that recognizing breakaway regions poses a threat to international peace and security, Egypt's Foreign Ministry said. "This initiative by Israel, which aligns with its expansionist policy and its efforts to do everything to prevent the recognition of a Palestinian state, constitutes overt interference in Somalia's domestic affairs," the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.  The African Union (AU) joined the condemnations of Israel's recognition of Somaliland.  "Any attempt to undermine the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Somalia... risks setting a dangerous precedent with far-reaching implications for peace and stability across the continent," an AU statement read. Israel said that it has now established diplomatic relations with Somaliland, and the two will soon set up embassies. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that by recognising Somaliland Israel has opened Africa's pandora's box. "The borders of most African countries were drawn in colonial times, and in the post-colonial period of the last seventy years, these borders have been considered sacrosanct. The two exceptions are also to be found in the Horn of Africa, where Eritrea broke away from Ethiopia and South Sudan broke away from Sudan." (click the image to read the full article).

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Opinion: In Armenia, Strategic Diversification Clashes With Geographic Realities

Opinion: In Armenia, Strategic Diversification Clashes With Geographic Realities

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signalled plans to seek European Union (EU) membership. Though framed as an attempt to diversify away from decades of dependency on Russia, Moscow instead sees it as a western attempt to simply oust it from the region. Such a move is supported by some in Armenia amid disillusionment with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) following the 2020 war with Azerbaijan and a 2022 incursion into Armenia itself.
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Quad countries meet in Washington in first event  hosted by new Secretary of State, Marko Rubio

Quad countries meet in Washington in first event hosted by new Secretary of State, Marko Rubio

In his first engagement with the international community after being sworn in as Secretary of State, Marko Rubio hosted the foreign ministers of India, Japan and Australia, for a meeting of the quad, the mechanism that unites the four countries and that is becoming increasingly important. At the end of the meeting the four foreign ministers issued a short statement:
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Pashinyan in Davos: Armenia’s foreign policy a balancing act between the West and Russia

Pashinyan in Davos: Armenia’s foreign policy a balancing act between the West and Russia

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia has decided to adopt a foreign policy that is balanced between relations with the European Union and Russia. He added that balanced relations are also being created at the regional level notably with Iran, by establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey and concluding a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan said this approach is not easy but also not impossible adding that Armenia is being transparent with all its international partners about its intentions. “Yes, we have decided to get closer to the European Union, but we are very intensively trying to share our position with Iran and Russia and with all our partners”, Pashinyan stated.
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Analysis
Analysis: How Trump’s US presidency may impact the South Caucasus

Analysis: How Trump’s US presidency may impact the South Caucasus

A second Trump presidency is unlikely to bring a sharp focus to the South Caucasus and American policy for the region will hinge on existing bipartisan frameworks and congressional initiatives rather than direct presidential involvement, according to an analysis by Vita van Dreven of The Hague Institute for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. She explores how the Trump presidency might impact the South Caucasus, analysing potential policy directions and their implications for the region:
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Donald Trump takes oath of office as US President, says he will save America from decline

Donald Trump takes oath of office as US President, says he will save America from decline

Donald Trump aged 78 was sworn in as the 47th president of the US and pledged in his inauguration address to rescue America from what he described as years of betrayal and decline, prioritizing a crackdown on illegal immigration. Trump declared his intention to sign a number of executive actions in his first hours as president, including a number focused on border security and immigration, his top priority. Trump announced a "national emergency" at the US-Mexico border, declared drug cartels as terrorists, and will scrap government diversity programmes. His vice president, JD Vance, was sworn in just before him.
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Donald Trump takes oath of office as US President, says he will save America from decline.

Donald Trump takes oath of office as US President, says he will save America from decline.

Donald Trump aged 78 was sworn in as the 47th president of the US and pledged in his inauguration address to rescue America from what he described as years of betrayal and decline, prioritizing a crackdown on illegal immigration. Trump declared his intention to sign a number of executive actions in his first hours as president, including a number focused on border security and immigration, his top priority. Trump announced a "national emergency" at the US-Mexico border, declared drug cartels as terrorists, and will scrap government diversity programmes. His vice president, JD Vance, was sworn in just before him.
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Analysis
Consolidating relations between Georgia and Azerbaijan

Consolidating relations between Georgia and Azerbaijan

The working visit by the Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze to Azerbaijan on January 17 suggests that both countries recognise that close cooperation is essential for ensuring stability and fostering prosperity in the region. During the visit, Kobakhidze met with Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov and participated in a session of the joint intergovernmental commission, which included delegations from both countries. The discussions revolved around the partnership between the two countries, bolstering trade and economic ties, as well as expanding cooperation in the energy and transportation sectors.
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New Strategic Partnership signed between the U.S. and Armenia

New Strategic Partnership signed between the U.S. and Armenia

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan launched the U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission on January 14 marking the latest milestone in the bilateral relationship between the two countries.  The United States and Armenia signed the strategic partnership agreement at the State Department in Washington expanding cooperation in security and several of areas as Yerevan appears to distance itself from Russia, a traditional. The United States is "working with Armenia in the realm of security and defense, and in particular, to support its efforts to assert its independence and sovereignty over its own territory," Blinken said at the signing ceremony.
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Opinion
Opinion: From Key West to Key Failures - The Demise of the OSCE Minsk Group

Opinion: From Key West to Key Failures - The Demise of the OSCE Minsk Group

When I moved to Yerevan in October 1998, it was rare to hear much positive conversation about the future of Armenia or Karabakh. That had also been the case when I visited the country on a research trip earlier that June. Many were already tired of the conflict and few seemed enthused with a new regime that had just come to power after the ousting the country's first president earlier that year. Levon Ter-Petrosyan had chosen to resign following a palace coup staged by his inner circle opposed to a concessionary peace deal with Azerbaijan. They thought the deal proposed by a troika of France, Russia, and the United States was a betrayal. Ter-Petrosyan warned that it might well be the best Armenia could ever hope for.