Diplomacy

On Thursday (3 July), Russia formally recognised the Taliban government in Afghanistan by accepting credentials from its new ambassador, Gul Hassan Hassan. In April, Russia removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations. On Thursday, the Russian Foreign Ministry welcomed this decision, stating that diplomatic ties would promote "productive bilateral cooperation" in areas such as trade, energy, transport, agriculture, and security. Afghanistan’s foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, welcomed Russia’s move, calling it 'historic' and expressing hope that other countries would follow suit. This reflects the Taliban's growing efforts to gain international legitimacy since seizing power in August 2021 following the US withdrawal from the country.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas has ended her official visit to Armenia after signing a partnership agreement with authorities in Yerevan. Following talks with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, a joint press conference was held in which the media was briefed about an agreement outlining Armenia’s participation in the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy crisis management operations. According to Kallas, the document envisions Armenia’s participation in EU missions around the world.

The Russian president and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron  have spoken on the phone for the first time in years. Their last conversation took place in September 2022, more than six months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The United States has halted deliveries of certain anti-aircraft missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine promised by the Biden administration due to fears of dwindling supplies. This was reported by political news site Politico on Tuesday night (1 July), citing three anonymous sources within the US Department of Defence, and was confirmed by the White House after publication.

A Russia-appointed official in Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk region was quoted by AP on Monday saying that Moscow’s forces have overrun all of it, one of four regions Russia annexed from Ukraine in September 2022. If confirmed, it would make Luhansk the first Ukrainian region fully occupied by Russia after more than three years of war with international peace efforts led by the US failing to make progress on halting the fighting. Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively rejected a ceasefire and hasn’t budged from his demands, which include Moscow’s control over the four illegally annexed regions. 

On July 1, Denmark takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union for the eighth time. Under the motto ‘A Strong Europe in a Changing World’, the Danish Presidency said its programme of work will ensure that the EU takes responsibility for its own security, while also strengthening its competitiveness. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that priority will be given to boosting defence capabilities in Europe amid Russia's war in Ukraine and US threats to Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory. Pushing countries to keep promises to boost defence spending and bolstering Europe's "dangerous" security will top Denmark’s agenda as it takes over the rotating presidency on Tuesday, according to Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

A Berlin government spokesperson said on Monday (30 June) that Germany expects the EU’s plans for an 18th sanctions package against Russia to be adopted this week.

The Nato Summit held in The Hague on 24-25 June was a failure, wrapped in success. It was a success because it avoided public display of divisions, mainly by avoiding issues: it was the shortest summit anyone can remember; it also had a very short final statement that basically had two points, the first a re-commitment to article 5 of the North Atlantic Charter and the principle that an attack on one will be considered an attack on all. The fact that Nato leaders in the Hague had felt the need to re-emphasise this should be a cause of worry not celebration, but in the end, it is good that it was said. The second outcome, the one that received most attention, was the commitment of European countries to spend more on their defence: 5 per cent of GDP, of which 3.5 per cent on hard defence, and 1.5 per cent on related ancillary areas such as infrastructure. You may, if you want, believe that this was a response to US President Donald Trump's insistence. Or, if you are more prudent, understand that countries that matter – Germany, France, Poland and the Scandinavian countries had decided on this course of action quite separately, and as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which was a wake-up call. Finland and Sweden’s decision to abandon their neutrality, and join NATO was taken long before Trump returned to the White House. The EU’s decision to spend massively on defence was always to ensure that other European countries are part of this process, willy-nilly.