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Conflict and Peace

Stories related to violent conflicts, diplomatic tensions, and conflict prevention, mediation and resolution.

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Egypt rejects Israeli "offer" for an exit only Rafah checkpoint in Gaza

Egypt rejects Israeli "offer" for an exit only Rafah checkpoint in Gaza

Egypt has rejected an Israeli "offer" for opening for exit only the Rafah checkpoint in Gaza. According to the Egyptian State Information Service, Egyptian authorities refuted on Wednesday afternoon reports that Israel claims it will open the Rafah crossing, the only lifeline for Gaza to the outside world, but only for those wishing to leave the besieged coastal enclave.  Citing an Egyptian official, the service stated that ''any agreement to open the crossing will cover both entry and exit, in line with US President Donald Trump's plan for humanitarian and political arrangements following the ceasefire.'' Cairo reaffirmed its adherence to the plan and UN Security Council Resolution 2803, including the right of return for Palestinians and maintaining two-way operations at the crossing. Earlier in the day, Israel's Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced that the Rafah crossing would reopen ''within the next few days,'' marking the first such move since February 2025. According to the statement, departures would require prior Israeli security approval and would follow mechanisms previously implemented under EU supervision. Notably, the statement made no mention of the entry of humanitarian aid, which continues to flow through the Kerem Shalom crossing. A Palestinian official also echoed the Egyptian denial of Israel's claim. The announced agreements stress that no Palestinians will be forced to leave Gaza. Those who choose to travel will have the right to return, while humanitarian aid will continue through UN agencies, the International Red Cross and Crescent, and other independent organisations. A European Union official, who requested anonymity and is familiar with the matter, told TNA that the EU has received no official notification from Israel regarding new arrangements, stressing that "no changes exist beyond the January agreements, and we await Israel's formal approval for crossing operations under the Trump plan. "Reopening the crossing will follow mechanisms jointly supervised by the EU and the Palestinian Authority to ensure oversight and transparency, according to the EU official.

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Armenian and Azerbaijani experts discuss transboundary water dialogue in Tbilisi

Armenian and Azerbaijani experts discuss transboundary water dialogue in Tbilisi

An event on water dialogue between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts is taking place today in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Monday (6 March). In a Facebook post, Emin Milli, the Founder and Chairman of Restart Initiative and the Co-Founder of Daha Yaxşı, Restart Initiative's media project, revealed that the focus of the meeting is to establish what are the key challenges to Internal Water Resources Management at the bilateral transboundary basin level, and to explore potential areas of mutual interest and cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is the third dialogue in the "Economic Connectivity: Armenia-Azerbaijan Dialogue Series" organised by the Restart Initiative in cooperation with the Hertie School, and sponsored by the United States of America. There will be a series of interviews with the participants of the dialogue published by Daha Yaxşı both this and next week. In today's meeting, one of the participants said, "we all will be losers if we don’t cooperate."
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Ukraine likely conducting limited tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut, Russia still deploying 60-year-old tanks

Ukraine likely conducting limited tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut, Russia still deploying 60-year-old tanks

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a "limited tactical withdrawal" from Bakhmut, said the Institute for the Study of War in its latest update of the Russia-Ukraine war on Monday (6 March). They did also caution, however, that it is too early to tell if Ukraine is considering a complete withdrawal from the city. Quoting a Ukrainian serviceman, the ISW also reported that, as of 4 March, Russian forces had not yet crossed the Bakhmuta River into central Bakhmut. Russian military bloggers have also claimed the Wagner Group had pushed Ukrainian positions back to central Bakhmut, according to the ISW. Amid the increased fighting along the frontline in eastern Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence reported in its intelligence update on 6 March that Russia "has continued to respond to heavy armoured vehicle losses by deploying 60-year-old T-62 main battle tanks".
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Commentary
A convergence of factors and developments make a spring breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations possible

A convergence of factors and developments make a spring breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations possible

After an erratic 2022, which saw prospects for peace and normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and between Armenia and Turkey, swing between unprecedented new heights and familiar lows, and after a rather pessimistic start for 2023 when diplomacy appeared to have to come to dead end, March has started with cautious optimism in the air, and the prospect of a historic Spring breakthrough appears within reach. This is due to the convergence of a number of factors and developments, some anticipated and some not. The ten developments that offer cause for optimism are: US brokered talks between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Munich; the deployment of an EU Monitoring Mission; the revival of the Brussels format; internet diplomacy; the ruling of the International Court of Justice; a fluid political situation in Stepanakert; Baku and Stepanakert holding direct talks; earthquake diplomacy between Armenia and Turkey; the limitations of Russia’s power and influence have been exposed; and more confident leaderships in both Baku and Yerevan.
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Warmer weather could help Ukraine in Bakhmut as Kyiv claims 150,000 Russian troop losses

Warmer weather could help Ukraine in Bakhmut as Kyiv claims 150,000 Russian troop losses

In its latest intelligence briefing on the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday (2 March), the UK Ministry of Defence has suggested that warmer weather around Bakhmut - the eastern Ukrainian town with a pre-war population of 70,000 that Russia has been trying to capture for months - may help the Ukrainians in their defence. In the briefing, the UK Ministry of Defence wrote, "as Ukrainian forces continue their defence of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, rising temperatures are now creating the muddy conditions [...] limiting cross country movement (CCM)." "Poor CCM typically provides some military advantage to defending forces," the briefing adds. The UK Ministry of Defence also note that daytime temperatures around Bakhmut have risen to above freezing, and warmer than average forecasts over the next weeks will also likely decrease CCM. "It is almost certain that by late-March, CCM will be at its worst following the final thaw. This will add further friction to ground operations and hamper the off-road movement of heavier armoured vehicles, especially over churned-up ground in the Bakhmut sector."
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Commentary
Gulf States' position on the war in Ukraine is a work in progress

Gulf States' position on the war in Ukraine is a work in progress

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine one year ago the prevalent feeling among the Arab Gulf states was that they did not want to get involved.  Some thought the best policy was to ignore it, others that they should at the very least dodge it, and some even saw in it some opportunity to extend relations with Russia and China.  There were a number of reasons for this. The region was frustrated with how the west dealt with it. It expected a more equal relationship that never properly materialised. There was fatigue at western attempts – some clearly ill-judged – at interfering in the Arab region, and conversely, disappointment at western failure to stand up to Iran. The unsightly US departure from Afghanistan, and talk of American strategic re-positioning, convinced some that the American moment in the Gulf had passed.
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Ukraine repels 60 Russian attacks in 24 hours as Bakhmut situation deteriorates

Ukraine repels 60 Russian attacks in 24 hours as Bakhmut situation deteriorates

The Ukrainian military repelled 60 Russian attacks in five areas over the past 24 hours in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its morning update on Tuesday (28 February). Ukraine repelled the attacks near Kupyansk in eastern Kharkiv Oblast as well as Lyman, Bakhmut, Adviika, and Shakhtarsk in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia is concentrating its main offensive efforts, according to the General Staff. Russian troops reportedly carried out eight missile attacks, 32 air strikes, and launched more than 85 attacks using multiple launch rocket systems  between 27 and 28 February, the statement said. Meanwhile, in his daily address on the evening of 27 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the situation in the Bakhmut direction is "getting more and more difficult". He added that Russia "is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense". The commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, has said the situation around Bakhmut is "extremely tense". Russia has been trying to take the medium-sized industrial town with a pre-war population of roughly 70,000 for over six months, and has long been a location where the front line has been the most active.