Conflict and Peace

Intense diplomatic efforts over the last month are a good reflection of a sustained determination on the part of Armenia and Azerbaijan to bring their decades-old conflict to an end, and sign a peace agreement, writes commonspace.eu. Meetings between president Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and prime minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia were held in Brussels on 15 May, with the mediation of EU Council president Charles Michel. The three leaders met again on 1 June in Chisinau, this time also with the participation of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Aliyev and Pashinyan met, together with president Putin of Russia, in Moscow on 25 May. And on 4 June the leaders of both Armenia and Azerbaijan were in Ankara for the inauguration of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s new term in office, where they also met informally. The next formal meeting is now set to be held in July in Brussels. A lot is also going on behind the scenes with European and American envoys travelling in the region.

600 square kilometres in Ukraine's southern Kherson region have been flooded after the Nova Kakhovka dam collapsed in the early hours of Tuesday (6 June). This was announced by the region's governor, Oleksandr Produkin. Speaking on Telegram, Produkin also said 32% of the flooded area is on the Ukrainian controlled right bank and 68% on the Russian occupied left bank. The average water level in flooded areas is currently 5.61m, with the town of Oleshky being particularly badly affected. In total, 30 communities have been affected, according to Ukrainian officials. As of Thursday morning (8 June), 2,000 people have been evacuated from affected areas while some who are stranded on the roofs of their homes in Russian-controlled areas have received drinking water by drone, the governor said. There have also been reports of Russian forces shelling affected areas and even shooting at Ukrainians trying to rescue people affected by the floods. While thousands have been made homeless, Ukrainian officials have said that hundreds of thousands now have no access to clean water, and irrigation systems served by the Dnieper river have been swept away, seriously damaging fertile land that could take years to recover.

Russia has blown up a dam in southern Ukraine's Kherson region. This was reported by Ukraine's Southern Operational Command early in the morning on Tuesday (6 June). The Soviet-era hydroelectric plant lies on the Dnipro river, next to the city of Nova Kakhovka and approximately 50km east of the city of Kherson. Videos have emerged online of a major breach towards the Russian-occupied side of the river, and there are already reports of flooding in dozens of towns and villages downstream. Ukrainska Pravda, citing a nearby resident, said there was a single explosion, after which the dam "collapsed like a house of cards." Ukrainian authorities say that approximately 16,000 people are in the critical zone, and evacuations have already begun. It is expected that flooding down stream will reach critical levels at around 11am local time. At 9am, Kherson Oblast governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported that the villages of Tyaginka, Lvove, Odradokamyanka, Ivanivka, Mykilske Tokarivka, Ponyativka, Bilozerka, and the Ostriv district in Kherson were "fully or partially flooded." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called an emergency meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, according to the council's head, Oleksii Danilov. 

Reports have emerged online during Sunday (4 June) and early Monday morning (5 June) of increased fighting along the front line in Ukraine. Various social media sources that have regularly provided updates on the current situation on the ground in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 reported forward Ukrainian troop movements in a number of locations along the front line over the last 24 hours. On Monday morning, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said troops were "moving forward" towards the eastern city of Bakhmut, and had destroyed a Russian position near the city. As of 09.30 CET on Monday (4 June), nothing else regarding the ostensible counteroffensive has been officially stated by Ukrainian authorities. Yesterday, Ukrainian authorities published a video asking for people to withhold any precise information they may have on Ukrainian troop movements, saying "Plans love silence. There will be no announcement of the start [of the counteroffensive]." The footage featured masked and well-armed troops holding their fingers to their lips, stressing the importance of operational security.