Conflict and Peace

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant on Tuesday (25 June) for former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. He is suspected of being responsible for attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine between October 2022 and March 2023. An arrest warrant has also been issued for Valery Gerasimov, commander-in-chief of the Russian army.

The Council of the European Union on Monday (24 June) adopted a 14th package of economic and individual restrictive measures against Russia, "dealing a further blow to the Putin regime and those who perpetuate its illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine". These measures are designed to target high-value sectors of the Russian economy, such as energy, finance and trade, and make it increasingly difficult to evade EU sanctions.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday (23 June) that the current phase of ''intense" fighting against Hamas in Gaza was almost over. Netanyahu says the ground offensive in the southern town of Rafah is ending. 

Somalia's government is trying to delay the withdrawal of African peacekeepers, warning of a potential security vacuum, according to documents seen by Reuters. Neighbouring countries are concerned that resurgent al-Shabab militants could seize power. The African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is due to withdraw by 31 December, to be replaced by a smaller new force. But in a letter last month to the acting chair of the African Union Peace and Security Council, the Somali government asked for the withdrawal of half of the 4,000 troops due to leave by the end of June to be delayed until September. The letter had not been previously reported. A joint assessment by the Somali government and the AU in March, seen by Reuters, recommended adjusting the overall withdrawal timetable based on the readiness and capabilities of Somali forces. The assessment, which was mandated by the UN Security Council, warned that 'a hasty withdrawal of ATMIS personnel will contribute to a security vacuum'. Mursal Khalif, an independent member of parliament, expressed deep concern about the country's direction. The European Union and the United States, the main funders of the AU force in Somalia, have sought to reduce the peacekeeping operation because of concerns about long-term funding and sustainability, according to four diplomatic sources and a senior Ugandan official. Negotiations over a new force have been complex, with the AU initially pushing for a more robust mandate than Somalia wanted, three diplomatic sources said. A heated political dispute could lead Ethiopia to withdraw some of its most experienced troops.

The United States is moving Ukraine to the top of the list to receive air defence interceptors to protect its cities from the onslaught of Russian missile attacks. The policy decision applies to interceptors used by the Patriot and other air defence systems to shoot down incoming missiles and drones. As a result, the US will give priority to Ukraine for Patriot surface-to-air missiles. Deliveries to other countries will be delayed to allow Ukraine to build up a sufficient stockpile.

Debris and oil have been found in the Red Sea, where the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier M/V Tutor was attacked by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis on 12 June 2024. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the vessel is believed to have sunk. One crew member, believed to be in the Tutor's engine room at the time of the attacks, remains missing.

North Korean soldiers have briefly crossed the heavily guarded border with South Korea. It was the second time in two weeks. When the South Korean army fired warning shots, the soldiers withdrew. The South Korean army said it was a misunderstanding.

An explosion has claimed the lives of several North Korean soldiers in the Demilitarised Zone between North and South Korea. The incident fits a pattern of rising tensions between the countries.