Conflict and Peace

The prospect of peace in the South Caucasus may finally be within reach. Following the high-profile meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House as facilitated by U.S. President Donald Trump on 8 August, hopes are rising that Yerevan and Baku could soon sign a long-anticipated peace treaty. That breakthrough has already been welcomed internationally, sparking renewed movement on the Armenia–Türkiye track as well. Opening the Armenian-Türkiye border has long been a policy objective for successive governments in Yerevan.

Libya’s UN-recognized government based in Tripoli has reached a preliminary accord with a powerful armed group to end months of tensions that have flared into occasional violence, a government adviser and local media said on Saturday 13 September. Negotiations between the government and the Radaa Force were facilitated by Turkiye, according to the same sources quoted by Arab News. Ziyad Deghem, an adviser to the head of the Presidential Council transitional body, said the details of the accord “will be announced to the public at a later date.” Libyan broadcaster Al-Ahrar on Saturday posted on X a video that it said showed defense ministry forces entering an airport controlled by Radaa.

The Israeli military began a ground offensive targeting Gaza city on Tuesday 16 September slowly squeezing in on the Palestinian territory’s largest city that has seen block after block already destroyed in the Israel-Hamas war. Residents still in the city were warned they must leave and head south. The push marks yet another escalation in a conflict that has roiled the Middle East as any potential ceasefire feels even further out of reach despite months of diplomacy. While the military wouldn’t offer a timeline for the offensive, Israeli media outlets suggested it could take months. Earlier in the day, according to Associated Press, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that “Gaza is burning” while independent experts commissioned by the United Nations’ Human Rights Council announced that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, joining a rising international chorus of such accusations.

Applause rang out in the UN General Assembly Hall on Friday as countries endorsed a declaration on the peaceful settlement of the question of Palestine and implementation of the two-State solution with Israel.  The New York Declaration is the outcome of an international conference held in July at UN Headquarters, organized by France and Saudi Arabia, which resumes later this month. The General Assembly comprises all 193 UN Member States and 142 countries voted in favour of a resolution backing the document. Israel voted against it, alongside nine other countries – Argentina, Hungary, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Tonga and the United States – while 12 nations abstained. The vote highlights the current Israeli international isolation as a result of its current policies. Prior to the vote, French Ambassador Jérôme Bonnafont recalled that the New York Declaration “lays out a single roadmap to deliver the two-State solution”. This involves an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, release of all hostages held there, and the establishment of a Palestinian State that is both viable and sovereign. The roadmap further calls for the disarmament of Hamas and its exclusion from governance in Gaza, normalization between Israel and the Arab countries, as well as collective security guarantees.

On Friday (12 September), Russia and Belarus commenced large-scale joint military exercises under the name “Zapad 2025,” in operations that have triggered concern among NATO members along the alliance’s eastern frontier. The manoeuvres begin only days after Poland accused Moscow of violating its airspace with an unprecedented number of drones, intensifying tensions across the region. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the purpose of Zapad 2025 is to enhance the skills of commanders and staff, improve cooperation, and conduct field training among regional and allied troop groupings. The Kremlin insists the drills were planned well in advance of the drone incident on Wednesday (10 September) involving Poland.

On Wednesday (10 September), Israeli jets targeted Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, as well as al-Jawf province. Houthi authorities reported that there are at least 35 dead and 131 wounded, although later figures suggested 46 fatalities and 165 people injured. Strikes in Sanaa’s al-Tahrir neighbourhood damaged residential areas, a medical facility, and the national museum, while in al-Jawf, government compounds were hit. The damage to civilian infrastructure has drawn widespread condemnation, with UNESCO warning of irreparable losses to cultural heritage.

The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen stated she would push to sanction "extremist" Israeli ministers and curb trade ties over Gaza, as she warned famine should not be used as a "weapon of war". Addressing the European Parliament on 10 September in the annual State of the Union, von der Leyen lamented that divisions among member states were holding back a European response but insisted the European Commission "will do all that it can on its own". "What is happening in Gaza has shaken the conscience of the world. People killed while begging for food. Mothers holding lifeless babies. These images are simply catastrophic," von der Leyen said. The German politician said the Commission would put its bilateral support to Israel on hold, stopping all payments, but without affecting work with civil society groups and Israel's Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial.

The agreements reached in the US-mediated summit of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Washington on August 8 are poised to fundamentally reshape the region's future. Particularly, the deal concerning the Zangezur corridor – rebranded as the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) – holds significant geopolitical importance. If implemented, the TRIPP agreement would deal a severe blow to the regional standing of Russia and Iran. More importantly, it would pave the way for a strategic U.S. presence in this critical geography. This outcome represents a success that few would have predicted for the United States, especially for the Trump administration, given the region's notoriously complex and volatile geopolitics.