Turkey and the Levant

The leaders of six opposition parties in Turkey have agreed to run in the next presidential elections, scheduled for next June, with a joint candidate. At their sixth meeting, held over the weekend they did not say who that candidate will be. “Our people should be assured that our joint candidate will be the president of all and not only the 13th President of the Republic of Turkey and those who vote for the political parties coming together around this table,” read a joint statement released following the meeting of the leaders of the Nation Alliance on  Sunday (21 August). “We are aware of the disappointments that our people have been suffering from for years. We will come out with eligible cadres and efficient policies to relive the people’s disappointments,” it noted. The opposition parties are expected to hold their next meeting on 2 October.

The visit of Turkish president Recip Tayip Erdogan and UN Secretary General, Antoniuo Gutteres, to Lviv on Thursday once more opened the possibility of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.  However a lot of the discussions were focused on the more immediate issue of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he has agreed to the parameters of a potential mission of the International Atomic Energy Agency to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, after repeated shelling of the complex raised fears of a nuclear catastrophe.. Speaking at a news conference in Lviv on Thursday following a trilateral meeting with the Turkish president and the UN secretary-general, Zelenskyy said “only absolute transparency and control of the situation” by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), among other bodies, could guarantee nuclear safety. It was not immediately clear if Russia would agree to the parameters. The Ukrainian leader also reiterated a call for Russia to immediately withdraw its forces from the nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine and stop all military activity in the area. Concerns about the plant mounted on Thursday when Russian and Ukrainian authorities accused each other of plotting to attack the site and then blame the other side. Kyiv and Moscow have accused each other of multiple recent incidents of shelling at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, which Russian troops captured early in the war. 

Turkish representatives will meet counterparts from Sweden and Finland on 26 August in an effort to remove the final stumbling blocks for the accession of the two Scandinavian countries into NATO. Turkey is one of seven out of thirty NATO countries still to ratify the decision taken at the last NATO summit to admit Sweden and Finland into the alliance. Speaking at a Conference for Turkish Ambassadors across the world, being held this week in Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Sweden and Finland are yet to deliver their commitments arising from the trilateral memorandum signed at the NATO summit in Madrid in June and they haven't taken any solid steps on Turkey's requests on extradition of terrorists yet. He described the remarks by Swedish and Finnish authorities on their promises as "well intentioned," and reiterated Turkey's desire to see concrete steps from the two countries.

Three grain-loaded ships from Ukraine anchored at the Black Sea entrance of Turkey's Istanbul Strait en route to Ireland, the Turkish National Defence Ministry said on Saturday (6 August) The first ship, the Panama-flagged Navi-Star, which departed from Ukraine's port of Odesa on 5 August, is carrying 33,000 tons of corn under a recent grain shipment deal signed by Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.N. On July 22, those countries and the U.N. signed a deal in Istanbul to reopen three Ukrainian ports for exports of Ukraine grain. A team from the Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul, consisting of representatives from all four sides, are inspecting the ship. After the inspection, it is expected to proceed on its way.

Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president, Recip Tayip Erdogan had four hours of talks in Sochi on Friday (5 August) to discuss a number of pressing issues, including Syria and Ukraine. In the joint statement released after the meeting the two presidents pointed out the importance of sincere, frank and trust-based relations between Turkey and Russia for the establishment of regional and international stability. "The two leaders confirmed that constructive relations between the two countries played a role in reaching the Istanbul Agreement on the transport of grain and food from Ukraine."   In the joint statement, Russia's implementation in accordance with the letter and spirit of the Istanbul Agreement, including the uninterrupted export of raw materials for the production of grain, fertilizer and fertilizer was underlined.. "The leaders confirmed their determination to act in solidarity and coordination in the fight against all terrorist organizations in Syria."  The two presidents agreed to boost political and economic cooperation including in energy and trade.

UN Security Council members have backed Iraq’s demand for a major investigation into a deadly July 20 artillery attack on a tourist area popular with Iraqis in the mountainous Duhok governorate of the Kurdistan region that left at least nine people dead and 23 others wounded. It comes only days after the Security Council unanimously condemned the attack “in the strongest terms.” However, council members did not mention Turkey during the emergency meeting late on Tuesday that was sought by Iraq and the UAE to discuss the attack. On the day of the strike, Baghdad summoned Turkey’s ambassador to condemn what it described as a “heinous crime committed by the Turkish troops, which has topped its continuous aggressions on the sovereignty of Iraq and its territories.”   Turkey has denied responsibility, and blames the Kurdistan’s Workers’ Party, which it considers a terrorist organization, for the attack. The PKK has been engaged in a long-running guerrilla war in southeast Turkey. Iraq does not give sanctuary to PKK fighters or its leadership, many of whom take refuge in the mountains where the borders of Iraq, Iran and Turkey meet. Baghdad has repeatedly rejected their presence on its territory. On Wednesday, the Turkish Foreign Ministry condemned an attack on its Consulate-General in Mosul the night before and called for the Iraqi authorities to take steps to protect its diplomatic missions.

A summit meeting of the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran took place in Tehran on Tuesday 19 July. This is an unlikely trio, three ambitious regional powers who have been brought together by circumstances. The event itself was a set-piece affair, and most of the serious work was done in the bilateral Iran-Russia, Iran-Turkey and Turkey-Russia meetings. Top of the agenda was Syria, and Turkey's determination not to allow Syria to be a springboard for Kurdish militant activity against it. Turkey has for weeks been preparing for a military operation into Syria. Turkish president, Recip Tayip Erdogan told his Russian and Iranian counterparts that he expected their full support in Ankara’s fight against “terrorists” in Syria. Both Russia and Iran have a military presence in parts of Syria mentioned as possible targets of Turkey’s new assault. “What we expect from Russia and Iran is their support for Turkey in its fight against terrorism,” Erdogan said. However, in a meeting with Erdogan on Monday (18 July), Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei told Erdogan such an offensive would be “detrimental” for the region and called for the issue to be resolved through dialogue between Ankara, Damascus, Moscow and Tehran. A 16 point statement was issued at the end of the summit which makes no reference to the imminent Turkish offensive.

"There should be realistic expectations of what can result from ongoing discussions on the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Turkey", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. The potential normalisation of relations – establishment of diplomatic relations, and opening of land borders – does not mean that Armenia and Turkey will not have disagreements, contradictions, or even will not act against each other in particular circumstances. "Given the current situation in the South Caucasus, the region is far away from peace, and no one should have hopes that Armenia – Turkey normalization will solve conflicts and bring an era of peace to the region. However, in the current situation, even a contribution to regional stability is too significant an opportunity to miss."    

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have stressed the importance of normalisation of their relations to the consolidation peace in the region, according to their respective press offices. The two leaders discussed the normalisation process in a phone call on Monday (11 July), seen as an important step in the ongoing efforts. "Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Nikol Pashinyan emphasized the importance they attach to the bilateral normalization process between Turkiye and Armenia, which will also contribute to the strengthening of peace and stability in the region," a statement by the Turkish presidency said. They also expressed hope that an agreement reached in early July would be implemented soon. The Armenian leader wrote on Twitter: "We expect early implementation of agreements reached in the meeting of our Special Representatives on July 1.” At that tmeeting the two envoys agreed on the early opening of their land border to the citizens of third countries.