South Caucasus

Sochi and Brussels will be two different meetings and they need to be approached differently by all sides. The EU should not try to replicate Sochi in Brussels. That would be both disingenuous and unachievable. But with some astute diplomacy and a measure of goodwill from all sides, the Brussels meeting can also be meaningful, and can in the long term end up being even more significant for the future peace and prosperity of the South Caucasus.

The developments of the last year proved that assessments according to which by taking some 8500 square km of territories in the 2020 Karabakh war, Azerbaijan will be satisfied and an era of peaceful development will be launched for Armenians, were highly exaggerated, and had little semblance to reality, argues Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed.

The foreign ministers of the EU27 and the Eastern Partnership countries met in Brussels this week to take stock of the progress to date and actively prepare for the upcoming Summit. Various sources told commonspace.eu that it was a positive meeting.

The European Union was among a number of international organisations and governments calling for an end to fighting and resumption of negotiations. "The EU urges Armenia and Azerbaijan to exercise utmost restraint, disengage their military forces on the ground and respect the commitments undertaken in the framework of the two trilateral agreements", a statement issued in Brussels said on Wednesday.

The recent visit of the head of the CIA to Moscow had two objectives: first to renew the contacts between the CIA and the FIS on operational issues related to countering international terrorism; the second to pave the way for further high level contacts including possible meetings between Biden and Putin. Professor Lieutenant General (ret.) Hayk Kotanjian in this op-ed says the importance of the visit should not be underestimated.

The European Union has issued a statement on the occasion of the first anniversary of the end of the 44 day Karabakh War. In the statement by the Spokesperson, the EU called for the strict respect for the ceasefire, the immediate release of all remaining prisoners, full cooperation on demining, and the de-escalation of tensions in border areas.

In a joint op-ed, Dr Benyamin Poghosyan and Dr Anar Valiyev discuss how Armenia and Azerbaijan have coped with the changed realities of the last year following the end of the 44-day Karabakh War and the signing of the Armenia-Azerbaijan-Russia trilateral declaration of 10 November 2021. They say the "war has redefined the South Caucasus, and it continues to do so. The heavy price paid by those who died should not be in vain. The opportunity for peace is now within the grasp of the people of the region. It will not be easy to achieve peace, nor is the risk of a spiral back to violence to be completely excluded. Which is why it is now time for cool heads, sober assessments, and careful but courageous steps, by the leaders, as well as by wider society.”

"When playing on Armenian vulnerabilities, both Azerbaijan and Turkey should take into account that each step aimed at increasing fears in Armenia leads to a new level of dependence on Russia", writes Alexander Petrosyan in this op-ed. "In the end, everything is a matter of interpretation and perception", he argues.