South Caucasus

The governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan have recently agreed the text of a historic peace agreement that ends years of animosity and warfare. The agreement is expected to be signed soon. LINKS Europe, which has a long history of engagement with the process of peace in the region, recently launched a new Armenia-Azerbaijan dialogue format in the framework of the European Union's EU4Peace initiative. In the last two weeks dozens of Armenians and Azerbaijanis, including academics, students, civil society activists, journalists and other professionals, many of them young, were involved. The work is organised in five thematic groups focusing on peace and security, connectivity, environment, governance and gender and equality and in phase 2 of the project, which has just ended, around fifty participants took part in in-person and online meetings, and more than twenty others were involved indirectly. The Chairpersons of the five thematic groups met in Vilnius, 3-6 July to launch the third phase of the program. The five thematic groups are now working on separate reports, which are expected to be finished in November and presented to the two governments and other stakeholders. The reports will outline a vision, up to 2040.

In Mackinder’s terminology, Eurasia is the heartland of geopolitics and the South Caucasus, though small in economic terms compared to the surrounding major powers, constitutes the heart of that heartland. No major power can afford to ignore or neglect it. Strategically located at the crossroads of East and West and being the only region that borders two most controversial actors of Eurasia (Russia and Iran), control over the South Caucasus equates to control over a vital part of the Eurasian continent. This is why the region’s geopolitical orientation carries immense significance, particularly amid the evolving landscape of international relations shaped by the war in Ukraine and the recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel in the southern neighborhood. Today, the geopolitics of the South Caucasus is in flux, and most importantly, this transition has now reached to the most important nation-state of the region: Azerbaijan.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas has ended her official visit to Armenia after signing a partnership agreement with authorities in Yerevan. Following talks with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, a joint press conference was held in which the media was briefed about an agreement outlining Armenia’s participation in the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy crisis management operations. According to Kallas, the document envisions Armenia’s participation in EU missions around the world.

Bagrat Galstanyan, the hardline cleric who led street protests against the start of border demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and called for the resignation or impeachment of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has been placed in pre-trial detention for two months. More than a dozen others have also been detained, with that number expected to rise. They are accused of plotting a coup ahead of next year's parliamentary elections, following the publication by pro-Pashinyan media of an alleged seven-page document detailing the plan.

Armenian authorities on Wednesday arrested a prominent Christian cleric, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, along with 13 other people and charged them with orchestrating a plot to overthrow the government. In a statement reported by Reuters, Armenia's Investigative Committee said it had filed criminal charges against Galstanyan and 15 others whom they said had "acquired the means and tools necessary to commit a terrorist attack and seize power". A total of 14 individuals have been arrested, investigators said.

Armenia finds itself in deepening discord between its political and religious elites. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s unprecedented public attacks on Catholicos Karekin II, head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, mark further escalation in a personal feud waged since the 2018 Velvet Revolution. It has worsened each year since and not least since Karekin II approved the participation of his own clergy to join protests against Pashinyan in 2022 and for one to lead them in 2024.