South Caucasus

The European Union has officially confirmed that the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet in Brussels on Sunday (14 May). The official announcement comes after a claim made in the Financial Times yesterday (8 May) about the two leaders meeting in the Belgian capital this weekend. In a statement, the EU said "President Michel has continued to be in close contact with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to advance the EU’s efforts to promote stability in the South Caucasus and normalisation between the two countries," before announcing the trilateral meeting in Brussels this weekend. The statement adds that this meeting in Brussels will be "flanked" by a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the sidelines of the upcoming European Political Community summit in Chisinau, Moldova, on 1 June 2023. In addition to this, the EU also said that Pashinyan and Aliyev have "agreed to continue to meet trilaterally in Brussels as frequently as necessary to address ongoing developments on the ground and standing agenda items of the Brussels meetings".

"The signing of an agreement – it is still not clear if it will be called a Peace Agreement, or something else – will certainly not mean that all issues between Armenia and Azerbaijan are resolved," writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. "There is also much that still needs to be done to build enough trust and confidence for any agreement to not simply be a piece of paper. But an agreement will certainly be the sign of the end of an era of war and hostilities which has also poisoned the atmosphere between the two neighbouring nations." The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, accompanied by large delegations, were in Washington this week for face to face negotiations on the future relations between their countries. After a hiatus of several months, during which contact was relegated to exchange of emails, the two sides, with some US prodding, on Monday engaged in what many consider to be the most detailed exercise yet in trying to chart the future relations between the two countries.

On Monday (1 May) the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken for the first day of talks understood to be taking place until latest Friday (5 May). AFP have reported that the talks will last four days. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, along with their delegations, are meeting at the George P. Schultz National Foreign Affairs Training Center in Arlington, Virginia, a short distance south-west of Washington D.C. Mirzoyan, Bayramov and Blinken are understood to have sat down for negotiations at 09:45 local time yesterday, after both foreign ministers had their own individual meetings with Blinken beforehand. Statements issued by both Armenia and Azerbaijan said that issues of the security situation in the region and the process of normalisation of relations between the two countries were discussed in the meeting hosted by Blinken. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Armenian Service report that the talks are more aimed at "an agreement on the normalisation of relations" rather than a peace treaty, citing a U.S. official speaking to reporters on the condition of anonymity.

In April 2022 a group of Armenian and Azerbaijani experts published their report “The South Caucasus from war to peace: 30 measures between now and 2030” in which they outlined their vision for the process of building trust and confidence between Armenia and Azerbaijan and between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, in order to contribute to lasting peace in the South Caucasus. One year later, in this joint paper, Ahmad Alili and Benyamin Poghosyan, co-rapporteurs of the group, reflect on events and developments over the eventful past twelve months. They say peace remains within reach, but more hard work is needed.