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Blinken and Von der Leyen speak to Aliyev ahead of their meeting with Pashinyan

5 April 2024

Armenian prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, is in Brussels, where he is expected to meet on Friday afternoon (5 April) with US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken and European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. The unusual format of the tripartite meeting is being billed as "the joint EU-US-Armenia high-level meeting in support of Armenia’s resilience".

There has been intense speculation about the purpose of the meeting, and the likely outcomes. Azerbaijan has seen it as an attempt to encourage Armenia to take a more hardline position in its dealings with it, including in the current negotiations of an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty. Russia has been vocal in criticising the meeting, seeing it as yet another western attempt at snatching Armenia away from the Russian orbit. Other countries, such as Turkey and Iran have also been critical of the three way meeting.

Behind the scenes there have been a lot of work going on in order to calm down neves, especially in Baku, and ahead of the meeting, both Secretary of State Blinken and President von der Leyen, spoke to Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev.

Aliyev-Blinken telephone conversation

In a read out of the Blinken-Aliyev telephone conversation, the State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said:

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The Secretary reinforced the importance of the U.S.-Azerbaijan bilateral relationship and highlighted a growing number of partnership initiatives, including energy and climate priorities. Secretary Blinken and President Aliyev discussed the importance of advancing the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which would bring economic benefits to the entire region. The Secretary underscored that there is no justification for increased tension on the border and cautioned that aggressive actions and rhetoric from any side would undermine prospects for peace. The Secretary reiterated the need for Azerbaijan to adhere to its international obligations and commitments regarding human rights and fundamental freedoms and urged the release of those unjustly detained.

There was a much longer readout published on the website of the Azerbaijani presidential administration:

On April 3, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a phone call to the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.

Antony Blinken said he had received reports that the trilateral meeting between the U.S., the European Union, and Armenia to be held on April 5 had caused concern with the Azerbaijani side and stressed the importance of clarifying the issue by speaking with President Ilham Aliyev regarding this matter. The Secretary of State pointed out that the primary focus of the said meeting would be on Armenia’s economic development issues.

President Ilham Aliyev highlighted that, based on the information he received, discussions preceding the trilateral meeting included topics such as military support for Armenia, joint military exercises, the establishment of military infrastructure along border areas with Azerbaijan, and Armenia's arming through the EU's European Peace Facility funded through the U.S. budget. The head of state emphasized that such steps carry an anti-Azerbaijan nature, including the policy of arming Armenia by France, which will escalate the arms race in the region and cause provocations.

During the telephone conversation, Antony Blinken underlined that the meeting on April 5 was not aimed against Azerbaijan.

Discussions were also held regarding peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. President Ilham Aliyev said that the negotiations held in Berlin by the foreign ministers regarding the text of the peace agreement were beneficial in terms of advancing the process and emphasized the need to accelerate the negotiations. In addition, the head of state emphasized that the accusations voiced in the West about Azerbaijan intending to attack Armenia are completely baseless. President Ilham Aliyev asserted that the French Minister of Foreign Affairs lied during a press conference alongside Antony Blinken in Paris on April 2 by accusing Azerbaijan of not recognizing Armenia's territorial integrity and posing a threat to Armenia. The head of state highlighted Azerbaijan's adherence to the statement adopted during the Prague meeting in 2022 and the Almaty Declaration.

President Ilham Aliyev stated that non-transparent preparation, lack of inclusivity, and refusal to postpone the trilateral meeting scheduled for April 5 between the United States, the European Union, and Armenia, despite Azerbaijan's valid concerns, would ultimately escalate tensions and create new dividing lines instead of fostering peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus.

During the conversation, they also touched upon bilateral cooperation between Azerbaijan and the United States. Antony Blinken referenced his previous discussions with President Ilham Aliyev during the Munich Security Conference in February this year, affirming the U.S.'s intention to expand cooperation with Azerbaijan across various sectors. He also mentioned the contacts between the delegations of the two countries within the framework of COP29.

President Ilham Aliyev reiterated Azerbaijan's keen interest in advancing bilateral relations with the United States in the areas previously discussed during the Munich Security Conference, noting that COP29 presents excellent opportunities for cooperation between the two nations in the field of climate change and green technologies.

Aliyev - von der Leyen telephone conversation

The following day, it was Ursula von der Leyen's turn. No read out of the telephone conversation between her and President Aliyev has been so far issued by the EU, but the website of the president of Azerbaijan published the following:

On April 4, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, made a phone call to Ilham Aliyev, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

During the telephone conversation, the parties discussed the prospects for the development of cooperation between Azerbaijan and the European Union, particularly highlighting such areas of cooperation as renewable energy, transportation connections, energy security, and others.

They underscored the importance of the Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Partnership in the field of energy, signed between Azerbaijan and the European Union in 2022.

They noted that COP29 to be held in Baku under Azerbaijan's presidency provides favorable opportunities for cooperation in climate action and the green transition.

The President of the European Commission emphasized the readiness of the European Union to support Azerbaijan in the humanitarian demining efforts.

The issue related to the trilateral meeting to be held in Brussels on April 5 was raised during the phone conversation. President Ilham Aliyev reiterated Azerbaijan's standpoint on this meeting, similar to the discussions with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and emphasized the need for regional inclusivity.

source: commonspace.eu with the press services of the US State Department, the president of Azerbaijan and agencies

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Monday Commentary: PEACE IN OUR TIME?

19 October 2026

Making peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan was never going to be simple, nor easy, nor quick. It is taking time, writes Dennis Sammut in this Monday Commentary. “There is a sense of realism coming from the leaders of the two countries – President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and prime minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia, that frankly, is necessary and welcome”, he writes. At a time when conflicts are raging all over the world – from Ukraine to the Gulf, from Africa to South Asia, the prospect that Armenia and Azerbaijan had finally, after decades of conflict that left thousands of dead and many more displaced, decided on embarking on a journey of peace was welcomed. Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be top-down up to a point. Both leaders have spent political capital preparing for a peace deal. But both are aware that their people are not ready for peace yet. In fact, in Armenia, most of the elite are negative toward a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan needs time to persuade his countryfolk. That is why 2031 is realistic. Ilham Aliyev runs a tighter shop, but he is also not immune to public opinion. Every time someone hits a landmine in Karabakh, which unfortunately happens often, peace comes into question. Which is why Aliyev chooses to sound hardline, more often than not. In pursuing the peace agenda, both Aliyev and Pashinyan need to proceed cautiously. But they are right in making peace the central issue in their agenda. It is the main issue, and the one that will define them in history. So forward, cautiously but resolutely! In pursuing the peace agenda, Aliyev and Pashinyan need to be supported clearly and unambiguously. There are too many people in Baku and Yerevan who are sitting on the sides, waiting. The international community is not doing enough. It is time to be counted. Otherwise, the spoilers will win, and the region will go back to its bad habits. (Click the image to read the full commentary).

Dennis Sammut

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UN Security Council Presidential Statement on the Role of Diplomacy during Active Hostilities

5 November 2026

The United Nations Security Council is today expected to adopt a presidential statement on the role of diplomacy during active hostilities. The draft text, which was authored by Pakistan, underscores the importance of maintaining diplomatic engagement even after the outbreak of armed conflict, with a view to containing escalation, facilitating cessations of hostilities and ceasefires, and creating conditions conducive to peaceful political settlements. Resolution 2788 of 22 July 2025, which was initiated by Pakistan, reaffirmed the Council’s commitment to the peaceful settlement of disputes under Chapter VI of the UN Charter. A year later, on 23 July, the Council convened an open debate to review the resolution’s implementation and examine ways of making more effective use of the peaceful dispute settlement tools available under Chapter VI. The draft presidential statement builds on previous Council products, such as resolution 2788, but it is the first to focus specifically on the role of diplomacy in containing and de-escalating active hostilities. Since the open debate in July, Council members have continued to call for intensified efforts towards de-escalation and dialogue, although differences persist over how proactively the Council should promote mediation and other peaceful means of dispute settlement, particularly in situations where the consent of the parties is contested. In his statement opening the general debate of the 81st session of the General Assembly on 22 September, Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted the devastating consequences of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, and the Middle East, warning that these and other crises illustrate what happens when “force outpaces diplomacy” and stressing the urgency of sustained diplomatic engagement. The negotiations on the draft presidential statement do not appear to have been particularly contentious, although Council members expressed differing views on some elements of the text. Pakistan circulated the initial draft to Council members on 14 October. Following informal consultations with Council members to address comments on the initial draft, Pakistan circulated a first revised draft on 23 October, incorporating several proposed amendments. On 29 October, Pakistan circulated a second revised draft, which it placed under silence procedure until the following day (30 October). After the US broke silence, a third revised draft was circulated on 3 November and placed under silence procedure until this morning (4 November). The draft subsequently passed silence. The agreed presidential statement emphasises the importance of maintaining direct and indirect channels of communication between parties to armed conflict to reduce the risk of miscalculation and create opportunities for sustained political engagement. (click image to read more)

Last week I visited Baku, Azerbaijan. My visit was relatively short, but very intensive, and had many meetings with stakeholders and colleagues. When I arrived in Baku first time in 1996, Azerbaijan was a different country: weak, poor, and shaken by defeat in war. For thirty year the Karabakh issue dominated the agenda: the political agenda but also the popular mindset. Now, thirty years later, Azerbaijan has returned to Karabakh, and peace with Armenia is on the horizon. It is a new era for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, for the South Caucasus, but also for Europe. But we cannot be complacent: the Peace agreement has been initialed but not signed; borders remain closed; TRIPP is ambitious but remains an idea; and there are spoilers who want to turn the clock back. We must not allow them, and in this Europe and Azerbaijan must work together. Europe’ vanguard organization is the European Union – it is a free union of 27 member states; it is a strong global economic force, and increasingly a diplomatic and military force too. But it remains “work in progress” and can often appear dysfunctional. It often lacks collective and institutional memory. In its dealings with Azerbaijan the EU has made many mistakes – not least opening the delegation here late – in 2008. It sometimes appears condescending. Some utterances from the European Parliament and from some quarters in some member states are not understandable even for me. They irritate the Azerbaijanis, but serve no other purpose But Azerbaijan has also not handled relations with the EU well. It has failed to respond when the hand of friendship reached out; and it confused irritating actions, sometimes by well-meaning people; sometimes by outright spoilers, with strategic action. In short, EU-Azerbaijan relations have suffered from a lack of proper dialogue. This dialogue must be frank, honest and multi-faceted involving different segments of society on both sides. Is Azerbaijan Europe? When Azerbaijan applied to join the Council of Europe in the 1990s, there were some who opposed, saying this was not Europe. I was one of the people who argued that Armenia and Azerbaijan may be on the periphery of the continent geographically, but were European in essence. Certainly their elites. During the discussion on 4 September in Baku, my friend Farhad Mammedov, mentioned that Azerbaijan is not interested in joining the EU, and was now close to the Central Asian countries in the 5 plus 1 format. Neither things mean that Azerbaijan is not Europe. There are several European countries that are not in the EU, and do not want to be, for example Norway and Switzerland. Iceland has recently voted to stay out of the EU. The UK was a member and left. Europe is bigger than the EU, and the holding of the European Political Community summit in Baku in 2027 proves that. Despite all the rhetoric, I never heard the president of Azerbaijan saying that Azerbaijan is not Europe, nor have I heard any European president say it either. Not wanting to join the EU and forging close relations with neighbouring regions does not make Azerbaijan any less European. It is only logical that when Europeans talk to Azerbaijan they talk like family. The conversation is often frank. It must also be honest, and Europeans need always to remember this too. A frank, honest and multi-faceted dialogue A frank, honest and multifaceted dialogue will contribute to relations between Azerbaijan and the rest of Europe: it will avoid misperception, which unfortunately is very common on both sides; it will provide a forum where problems can be discussed and resolved, and it will increase mutual trust, so that together common problems can be addressed. (click image to read the full Monday Commentary)

Dennis Sammut

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Monday Commentary: “The barren rocks of Aden” and “These lands of Yemen are so ruthless”

21 September 2026

There are two early 20th-century tunes that mark foreign attempts to occupy and “pacify” Yemen. The Scottish tune “The barren rocks of Aden” marks the mobilisation of Highland soldiers, enlisted to be deployed to the Yemeni port of Aden, that in 1837 became the last colony to be incorporated into the British Empire. The tune talks of the harshness of the terrain, but is celebratory, It was even played as a farewell tune to Sir William Luce at the parade in Sharjah celebrating his end as “British Viceroy” in the Middle East in 1966. The second tune is an Anatolian lament. As Ilker Sezer reminded us this weekend, in his weekly feature on “Turkiye Today”, it “mourns the tragic fate of Ottoman soldiers dispatched to the harsh, remote deserts of Yemen during the fall of the empire, young men who marched away from their villages and never returned home. Most of their names, and numbers, were never recorded. Yet, their fate left a mark on the Turkish psyche.” Subsequent invaders have discovered that Yemen is a grave that cannot be overcome by the strength of modern technology, and that whilst Yemeni society is splintered and divided, building a reliable alliance with Yemeni factions is difficult. These are the harsh lessons facing Saudi Arabia, as the Kingdom faces its biggest challenge in its modern history. The leadership of the Kingdom now has to respond decisively. At stake is their very credibility. This is likely to be a long and messy conflict. Saudi military objectives need to be focused: to box in the Houthis rather than destroy them. This is likely to include: (a) regaining territory lost on the Red Sea coast; (b) control over Bab el Mandeb Strait; (c) some kind of cordon sanitaire on the Saudi-Yemeni border; and if things go well (d) the capture of Sanaa. All this would not eliminate the Houthi problem, but it will contain it. In the end the Saudis will have to continue managing Yemen with a mixture of carrot and stick. For the moment, the stick is likely, but the carrot cannot be forgotten either. (click the image to read the Monday Commentary in full)

Dennis Sammut

Blinken and Von der Leyen speak to Aliyev ahead of their meeting with Pashinyan

source: commonspace.eu with the press services of the US State Department, the president of Azerbaijan and agencies

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Monday Commentary: PEACE IN OUR TIME?

UN Security Council Presidential Statement on the Role of Diplomacy during Active Hostilities

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Monday Commentary: European-Azerbaijan relations need an intensive and multifaceted dialogue that is frank and honest

Monday Commentary: “The barren rocks of Aden” and “These lands of Yemen are so ruthless”