Region

Russia

Stories under this heading cover Russia, as well as countries in the eastern part of the European continent, such as Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova.

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Commentary
The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine

The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine

Vladimir Putin was sworn in for another six-year term as the President of Russia on Tuesday, 7 May. With Putin having been the undisputed leader of Russia for decades, continuity, one would have thought, was assured. Yet Putin himself, on Monday (13 May) speaking at a meeting of the Security Council spoke of “a new political cycle” in Russia. Some of the first decisions of the re-elected president give us a sense of what is to come. First, there was the surprise dismissal of Sergei Shoigu as Minister of Defence, and his transfer to be the Secretary of the Security Council. There had been speculation for some time that Shoigu’s time at the Ministry of Defence was up. But what was surprising was the appointment of Andrei Belousov, former Deputy Prime Minister – an efficient technocrat with an economic background to replace him. That the Russian Ministry of Defence has needed a shake-up for some time has been abundantly clear, but Andrei Belousov’s mission seems to be more ambitious than that: He is tasked with transforming the Russian Defence Ministry into a modern institution that can embrace new ideas and techniques, and that has enough flexibility to conduct the sort of hybrid warfare that is likely to be the order of the day going forward. So despite all of Putin’s bravados about the Russian nuclear arsenal, it seems he is putting his faith in a more innovative, agile, and versatile force. Then on Monday, 13 May, Putin held his first meeting of the Security Council since his inauguration. The Kremlin website only referred to one item out of apparently several that were discussed, namely relations with the post-Soviet Republics, a subject much close to the heart of the president. Putin reiterated that this was a priority in foreign policy. Putin said, “we should pay even more attention to this area in the new political cycle in Russia and discuss the way we will organise this work from all points of view, including organisational”. So it appears that there is new thinking in this sphere, details of which is not yet known.
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Opinion
Opinion: Russian withdrawal from Karabakh allows Azerbaijan to strengthen its ties with its Turkic "family"

Opinion: Russian withdrawal from Karabakh allows Azerbaijan to strengthen its ties with its Turkic "family"

The geopolitics of the South Caucasus is as unpredictable as ever. Even as recently as the beginning of April, few, if any, would have imagined that Russia may withdraw its peacekeeping contingent from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan anytime soon. Many observers were even skeptical about the possibility of their withdrawal in November 2025 – the date which was stipulated in the November 2020 trilateral statement as the potential but not fixed date for the ending of the peacekeeping mission of Russia. This skepticism was grounded in the understanding that for Russia, Karabakh holds paramount importance in the broader context of the South Caucasus. In the wake of Russia’s unexpected withdrawal of its peacekeeping mission from the Karabakh region, the South Caucasus enters a new geopolitical dynamic. This historic development not only signifies Azerbaijan's attainment of complete sovereignty over its territories but also heralds the definitive end of the Karabakh conflict. President Ilham Aliyev's adept diplomatic maneuvers have secured Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and positioned Baku as a confident actor on the regional stage. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers marks a pivotal moment, shaping the future landscape of Azerbaijan-Russia relations and regional geopolitics. As Azerbaijan charts its course forward, its commitment to regional integration remains, however, steadfast, with a focus on strengthening ties within the Turkic world.

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Editor's choice
News
Russian airstrike on Idlib market in Syria kill at least 13, injures dozens

Russian airstrike on Idlib market in Syria kill at least 13, injures dozens

A Russian airstrike launched on a market in the north-western Syrian city of Idlib on Sunday (25 June) have killed 13 people, reports Arab News. At least nine civilians are among the dead, including two children. Around 30 people are understood to have been injured in the Russian strike on the rebel-held city, and it is expected that the death toll will rise. The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - backed by Russia and Iran - has won back most of the territory that it lost to various groups in the early years of the Syrian Civil War that began in 2011 after the regime violently surpressed pro-democracy protests that had swept through a number of Arab countries. The violent repression of the protests led to President Assad and Syria being a pariah state for a number of years, although a process of the country's rehabilitation has recently taken place with Syria re-joining the Arab League in May this year, at the 32nd summit of the group in Jeddah. You can read more about this here. Over the years, Russia has repeatedly launched airstrikes across rebel-held regions of Syria. Although deadly Russian airstrikes on civilians in Syria have been limited this year - likely due to its ongoing invasion of Ukraine - Sunday's strike is the deadliest attack on Syria this year.
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News
Russian attacks on Ukraine's Kryvyi Rih, Odesa and Donetsk Oblast kill 18, injure many more

Russian attacks on Ukraine's Kryvyi Rih, Odesa and Donetsk Oblast kill 18, injure many more

The past two days have seen Russian missile and drone strikes targeting the Ukrainian cities of Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, and Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, in total killing at least 18 people and injuring at least 50. At approximately 3.20am on Tuesday morning (13 June), only one of six missiles fired by Russian forces at the home town of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky breached air defenses, striking an appartment block and a food warehouse. As of 9am CET on Wednesday (14 June), Ukrainian authorities have said the strike has killed 12 people, and injured at least 35. More than 70 residential buildings were also damaged as a result of the missile strike, as well as three schools, three buildings of two other educational institutions, and a dormitory. Then, at approximately 2.30am on Wednesday morning, reports emerged of another Russian overnight attack on the southern city of Odesa. Ukraine's Southern Command has reported that at least 3 people were killed by a strike on the warehouse of a retail chain, which caused a large fire.
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News
Russia blows up Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine causing widespread flooding

Russia blows up Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine causing widespread flooding

Russia has blown up a dam in southern Ukraine's Kherson region. This was reported by Ukraine's Southern Operational Command early in the morning on Tuesday (6 June). The Soviet-era hydroelectric plant lies on the Dnipro river, next to the city of Nova Kakhovka and approximately 50km east of the city of Kherson. Videos have emerged online of a major breach towards the Russian-occupied side of the river, and there are already reports of flooding in dozens of towns and villages downstream. Ukrainska Pravda, citing a nearby resident, said there was a single explosion, after which the dam "collapsed like a house of cards." Ukrainian authorities say that approximately 16,000 people are in the critical zone, and evacuations have already begun. It is expected that flooding down stream will reach critical levels at around 11am local time. At 9am, Kherson Oblast governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported that the villages of Tyaginka, Lvove, Odradokamyanka, Ivanivka, Mykilske Tokarivka, Ponyativka, Bilozerka, and the Ostriv district in Kherson were "fully or partially flooded." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called an emergency meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, according to the council's head, Oleksii Danilov. 
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News
Reports of increased fighting along Ukraine front line, Russia claims large attack thwarted

Reports of increased fighting along Ukraine front line, Russia claims large attack thwarted

Reports have emerged online during Sunday (4 June) and early Monday morning (5 June) of increased fighting along the front line in Ukraine. Various social media sources that have regularly provided updates on the current situation on the ground in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 reported forward Ukrainian troop movements in a number of locations along the front line over the last 24 hours. On Monday morning, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said troops were "moving forward" towards the eastern city of Bakhmut, and had destroyed a Russian position near the city. As of 09.30 CET on Monday (4 June), nothing else regarding the ostensible counteroffensive has been officially stated by Ukrainian authorities. Yesterday, Ukrainian authorities published a video asking for people to withhold any precise information they may have on Ukrainian troop movements, saying "Plans love silence. There will be no announcement of the start [of the counteroffensive]." The footage featured masked and well-armed troops holding their fingers to their lips, stressing the importance of operational security.
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News
Drones fly above Kyiv and Moscow, Russia attacks three times in 24 hours

Drones fly above Kyiv and Moscow, Russia attacks three times in 24 hours

Russia has launched three mass aerial assaults on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in 24 hours, with the latest coming in the early hours of Tuesday (30 May).  It was the 17th such attack just this month, with the Kyiv City Military Administration reporting that Iranian-made Shahed drones approached the city from different directions, and in several waves. According to Ukrainian authorities, the country's Air Defense shot down 29 out of 31 drones mostly fired at Kyiv. There are reports of one woman being killed and three others being injured after debris from a destroyed drone fell on a tower block, causing a fire. Drones shot down over other parts of Kyiv did not cause any other casualties, Kyiv City Military Administration reported. Between midnight and 5am yesterday, on Monday (29 May), Ukrainian Air Defenses had also fought off yet another aerial attack from Russia, shooting down 37 out of 40 cruise missiles, and 29 out of 35 Shahed drones. No casualties were reported on that occasion, although a second attack that came late morning yesterday reportedly injured one. Meanwhile, also on Tuesday morning, Muscovites awoke to the sound of explosions as alleged Ukrainian drones were shot down over Moscow. Although Russia's state-run RIA Novosti reports that eight drones were shot down over Moscow, reports on social media suggest that as many as two dozen drones flew over Moscow. Russian authorities have reported that falling debris damaged a tower block, injuring two people, although they were not hospitalised. Ukraine has not commented on the claims.
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News
Moscow and Minsk to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, use remains “extraordinarily unlikely”

Moscow and Minsk to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, use remains “extraordinarily unlikely”

Yesterday on Thursday (25 May), the Russian and Belarusian defence ministers Sergei Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin signed documents on placing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to the Russian state-controlled news agency Interfax, Shoigu said at the meeting that decisions over the control and use of the nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus would remain under the control of Russia.  Shoigu added that Russia may take "additional measures" in the future "to ensure the security of the Union State [of Russia and Belarus] and respond to the military-political situation". Russian President Vladimir Putin, and especially TV propagandists, have consistently threatened the West with nuclear weapons as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched on 24 February last year has foundered. On 25 March this year, President Putin threatened to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus "for training", although Belarus has worked towards this development for some time.In their daily assessment of the Russian offensive campaign against Ukraine, the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the chance of Russia using the nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere is "extraordinarily unlikely".