On July 12, a Russian court in Southern Krasnodar upheld an appeal by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) after a previous ruling made last week by a district court ordered the oil transporter to cease operations due to ecological concerns. The initial decision led Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to look toward new routes for Kazakh energy exports. While the decision will suit Kazakhstan’s energy sector in the short-term, the persistent instability since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to result in Kazakhstan seeking to free itself from Russian dependence for the export of its energy resources in the medium to long term. For the Kremlin, Nur-Sultan’s willingness to engage with Western countries is a cause for concern and could signal the weakening of Russian hegemony in Central Asia. Kazakh oil may be flowing again from Novorossiysk but the damage to Russian-Kazakh relations has been done.

In a live speech broadcasted on Wednesday, the UAE ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed laid out his vision for the future of the country. Speaking two months after being elected as the third president of the UAE, MBZ highlighted issues that are key and relevant to the Emirati society and youth. 

Two weeks after violent protests rocked Uzbekistan’s Karakalpakstan region, speculation continues about who was behind the turmoil that appeared to take officials in the capital, Tashkent, completely by surprise. This despite the fact that the reasons that triggered the unrest appear to be clear, namely proposed constitutional changes that promised to weaken the autonomy of the region, which occupies a territory, of 166,590 sq kms, and has a population of 1.9 million. Official reports say that 18 civilians were killed during the protests, 94 hospitalised, and hundreds more injured. The Uzbek Government has blamed unspecified foreign forces for being behind the unrest. Uzbekistan is a tightly managed country, where such unrest is by and large unheard of, and where the only country that has the potential to provoke such wide-spread disturbances is Russia, given its longstanding and deep rooted influence in Central Asia. Some Uzbek diplomats in Europe have been briefing that the disturbances were part of a planned “colour revolution”, although they did not quite explain what they meant by that. Uzbekistan is known to have been under considerable pressure from  Moscow in recent years to join Russia-led regional structures, such as the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO military alliance, but president Shavkat Mirziyoyev has so far resisted the pressure.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have stressed the importance of normalisation of their relations to the consolidation peace in the region, according to their respective press offices. The two leaders discussed the normalisation process in a phone call on Monday (11 July), seen as an important step in the ongoing efforts. "Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Nikol Pashinyan emphasized the importance they attach to the bilateral normalization process between Turkiye and Armenia, which will also contribute to the strengthening of peace and stability in the region," a statement by the Turkish presidency said. They also expressed hope that an agreement reached in early July would be implemented soon. The Armenian leader wrote on Twitter: "We expect early implementation of agreements reached in the meeting of our Special Representatives on July 1.” At that tmeeting the two envoys agreed on the early opening of their land border to the citizens of third countries.

The president of the United States, Joe Biden, will this week visit the Middle East for what promises to be the launch of a new era in US relations with the region. Commonspace.eu will be following the visit and reporting on its importance. Late on Saturday, President Biden published an article on the Washington Post, outlining the reasons for his visit, and why it is so important. We reproduce it here in full. In the article, Biden argues that a more secure and integrated Middle East benefits Americans in many ways. "Its waterways are essential to global trade and the supply chains we rely on. Its energy resources are vital for mitigating the impact on global supplies of Russia’s war in Ukraine." The president states "We have to counter Russia’s aggression, put ourselves in the best possible position to outcompete China, and work for greater stability in a consequential region of the world. To do these things, we have to engage directly with countries that can impact those outcomes. Saudi Arabia is one of them, and when I meet with Saudi leaders on Friday, my aim will be to strengthen a strategic partnership going forward that’s based on mutual interests and responsibilities, while also holding true to fundamental American values."

Preparations are under way for a fourth meeting between Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, facilitated by the president of the European Council Charles Michel. Even a year ago such a process would have been unthinkable. There is no more than one format in which Armenia and Azerbaijan pursue their quest for peace. But options are also available in the way the two leaders can work to achieve the ultimate goal, a peace agreement that will hail a new era of lasting peace in the region. In this commentary, Dennis Sammut says there are many roads open on the way to lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and all need to be explored and exploited. Developing trade relations, intensive people to people contacts, establishing diplomatic relations in stages, facilitated travel between the two countries including direct air travel –  are all important steps that can and should be taken in the process of normalising relations. Most of them can be agreed and start giving results in months not years. The process can be supported by an intensive programme of confidence building measures that will help build trust at various layers of society.