Reports from various sources say both Armenia and Azerbaijan are concentrating their troops along the border zone, in an apparent preparation for a potential escalation, writes Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Despite the optimism following last month's Munich meeting between the leaders of the two countries, the sides have not since taken any tangible step towards the resolution of their ongoing disputes. This despite the fact that recent history of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is a testimony to the fact that an unstable status-quo, with imitations of negotiations, is a ticking bomb, he argues.

The violent attack against the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran on 27 January has strained tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran, sparking fears of further deterioration in relations between the two countries, writers Vasif Huseynov in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Azerbaijan rejected Iran’s assertions that the attack was driven by personal motives and accuses Tehran of whipping up anti Azerbaijani hysteria. All this has brought the bilateral relations between the two countries to a new low. It cannot be excluded that things will deteriorate even further, given that Tehran does not seem ready to renounce its claims against Azerbaijan. This constitutes an alarming threat to regional peace and security for a variety of reasons. Above all, the current state of bilateral relations, and the propagation of anti-Azerbaijani sentiments by the Iranian media, create a precarious situation that could easily spiral into escalation with the slightest incident or provocation. All this has brought the bilateral relations between the two countries to a new low. It cannot be excluded that things will deteriorate even further, given that Tehran does not seem ready to renounce its claims against Azerbaijan. This constitutes an alarming threat to regional peace and security for a variety of reasons. Above all, the current state of bilateral relations, and the propagation of anti-Azerbaijani sentiments by the Iranian media, create a precarious situation that could easily spiral into escalation with the slightest incident or provocation.

The stalemate in the process of normalising relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan has created new risks. Writing for commonspace.eu in this op-ed, Vasif Huseynov says that "there is widespread concern in the region that the sides might end up in a violent military escalation this year if they fail to sign a peace treaty and agree on a roadmap for the resolution of the remaining disputes concerning the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan and the re-opening of regional transportation links. Under these circumstances, there is a great need for the constructive intervention and active mediation of the EU, without which Baku and Yerevan are unlikely to be able to overcome the difficulties created by the Russian side", he argues.