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For many, the worst is yet to come

28 March 2020

Will Murray looks at the march of coronavirus and with the worst yet to come for many says that it now more important than ever to follow the advice of the medical authorities.

By now, you may be familiar with the widely-circulated graph with the number of coronavirus cases over time, alongside healthcare system capacity and two arched curves - a sharp peak and a shallow peak (see above). The lines visually represent the trajectory of coronavirus cases with and without precautionary measures, such as handwashing and social distancing. Whilst in the first curve where the virus runs its natural course, the demand for hospital treatment is significantly higher than the healthcare system can handle; the second curve, whilst taking more time, is significantly more manageable. As we have seen in Italy, the greatest number of people die from the virus when beds in intensive care units fill up [1]. This graph highlights just how essential preventative measures are helping to 'flatten the curve', mitigating the deaths likely to occur.

So, with the currently implemented lock downs and preventionary measures, when is the virus likely to peak across countries in Europe and beyond?

In Western Europe, the UK expects the height of the virus in two-three weeks [2]; the French peak is likely sometime around the 5th of April [3]; and swamped medical teams in Spain and Italy are hoping for it by the end of this month [4][5]. In the Netherlands, Jaap van Dissel, Director of the Public Health Institute RIVM, has suggested the peak occurring at some time in the end of May [6]

 

In Eastern Europe, Poland expects its peak in the middle of April [7], with Romanian and Czech Ministries of Health, amongst others, saying that projections of the virus will depend on the effectiveness of the measures currently being put in place [8][9].

In the South Caucasus, it is still too early to predict exactly how the virus will develop, but cases continue to rise in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Although these are just a few of the countries on the continent, it is quite clear that for most of us, the worst is yet to come. It's now more important than ever that we continue to follow guidelines set out by the World Health Organization and our local medical authorities to 'flatten the curve', preventing our medical services from becoming overwhelmed.

References:

[1] NY Times - Dip in Italy's Cases Does Not Come Fast Enough for Swamped Hospitals

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-hospitals.html?auth=login-google

[2] The Scotsman - 'When will coronavirus peak in the UK? Predictions based on infection curve, Italy and government guidance'

https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/when-will-coronavirus-peak-uk-predictions-based-infection-curve-italy-and-government-guidance-2519753

[3] Le Journal des Femmes - 'Coronavirus : carte en France, cas par région, décès, courbe, pic'

https://sante.journaldesfemmes.fr/maladies/2605417-coronavirus-carte-france-cas-deces-courbe-pic-italie-symptome-monde-chine-italie-espagne-etats-unis/

[4] EU Observer - Spain prays to reach peak of pandemic this week

https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/147850

[5] Huffington Post - 'Silvio Brusaferro (Iss): "Dal 19-20 marzo curva contagi sembra attenuarsi"'

[6] NLTimes.nl - 'Dutch Coronavirus Infection Rate Declining: Health Officials; ICU Peak Expected in May'

https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/25/dutch-coronavirus-infection-rate-declining-health-officials-icu-peak-expected-may

[7] ExMetric - '9 tys. Zakażeń i wyraźne zahamowanie w okolicy 15 kwietnia. Prognoza przebiegu epidemii koronawirusa w polsce - model exmetrix'

http://www.exmetrix.com/pl/uncategorized/9-tys-zakazen-i-wyrazne-zahamowanie-w-okolicy-15-kwietnia-prognoza-przebiegu-epidemii-koronawirusa-w-polsce-model-exmetrix/

[8] Czech Republic Ministry of Health - 'Datová a informační základna pro management pandemie COVID-19'

[9] Romania Insider - 'Romania considers home treatment for mild Covid-19 patients if total number of cases goes over 4,000'

https://www.romania-insider.com/home-treatment-coronavirus-romania

source: This article prepared by Will Murray is published as a public service announcement by commonspace.eu

 

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