Diplomacy

The policy decisions made by the new President of the United States, Donald Trump, have triggered tectonic shifts in the international political order. The post-World War II, U.S.-led system is unraveling before our eyes, and paradoxically, this process has been accelerated by the United States itself. The new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, described the post-Cold War order, characterized by unipolarity, as an “anomaly” and stated, “It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually, you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, with multiple great powers in different parts of the planet.” The United States appears to have abandoned its post-World War II role as the leader of the free world, established through Pax Americana and its commitment to providing security for allies in Europe, East Asia, and beyond.

On the evening of 30 January, a Facebook post by the Independent Centre for Strategic Studies sparked outrage in Armenia. The post featured a 29-second video showing a group of men singing a 1972 Azerbaijani song with the chorus, Jan Karabakh, in Yerevan’s Republic Square. Though a song has been performed in the Armenian language with the same phrase actually in Karabakh, this short recent public rendition triggered a wave of anger on social media in the country.

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze met with his Armenian counterpart Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan on Thursday. According to media reports,  they discussed the importance of the strategic partnership between the two countries as well as the issues to be discussed at the 14th Meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission for Economic Cooperation. They also gave attention to the situation in the region including progress in the peace process.

LINKS Europe held its first event within the recently launched EU4Peace III programme in Tbilisi on Thursday 30 January. Armenian and Azerbaijani participants engaged in an open and constructive discussion on how to shape a dialogue best suited to today's realities. As part of the initiative, LINKS Europe will shortly launch five thematic groups: The thematic groups, with Armenian and Azerbaijani participants will discuss the following topics: (1) Climate Change & the Green Economy; (2) Peace & Security; (3) Governance; (4) Regional Connectivity; (5) Gender and Diversity . On 2nd April, at a meeting in The Hague, LINKS Europe will launch the Armenia-Azerbaijan Expert Political Dialogue Platform. The platform is a parallel, mutually reenforcing initiative bringing together experienced Armenian and Azerbaijani experts and stakeholders. It is expected that one of the main tasks of the platform in 2025 will be to support the thematic groups, particularly in the phase of preparation of their reports. The EU4Peace III action, supported and funded by the European Union, aims to contribute to the sustainable normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. By broadening the engagement of social groups, the initiative aims to link political processes to wider societal transformation.

Georgia’s delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has announced that it will immediately halt its participation in the assembly after the plenary voted to impose strict conditions for ratifying the delegation’s credentials. Among the conditions is a rerun of the contested October 2024 parliamentary elections, which Georgia’s governing party, Georgian Dream, is accused of rigging, and the release of all political prisoners detained at ongoing pro-EU protests in the country. According to the resolution, which was passed on January 29 by 114 votes to 13 with seven abstaining, should the conditions be met, the assembly would revisit the ratification of the Georgian delegation’s credentials in April.

Russia has warned the Armenian government of severe economic consequences if it pursued plans to move towards membership of the European Union. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk insisted on Wednesday that the EU accession process will mark the beginning of Armenia’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic (EEU), a Russian-led trade bloc that gives Armenia tariff-free access to Russia’s vast market. “The outcome here is obvious: opening markets with the European Union will mean closing markets with the Eurasian Economic Union,” Russian news agencies quoted him as telling journalists.

In his interview to Azerbaijani media on January 7 this year, President Aliyev touched upon the issue of the upcoming Trump administration, notably speaking about his positive expectations, up to the prospects of establishing strategic partnership relations. This statement was rather unexpected, given many recent tensions between Baku and Washington, including the spat with the U.S. Embassy and the Azerbaijani side’s refusal to hold a US-mediated meeting of foreign ministers with Armenia during the OSCE Summit in Malta. Back then, Azerbaijani MFA issued a statement saying that the four years of the Biden administration were “lost years” for the Azerbaijan-US relations.

The Council of the European Union has decided to suspend parts of the EU-Georgia visa facilitation agreement leading to Georgian diplomats and officials having to apply for visa when travelling to the EU. "For travels to a member state which has reintroduced visa requirements, Georgian diplomats and officials will also no longer benefit from shorter application times, lower visa fees, and the possibility to submit fewer supporting documents," a Council statement announced on Monday.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signalled plans to seek European Union (EU) membership. Though framed as an attempt to diversify away from decades of dependency on Russia, Moscow instead sees it as a western attempt to simply oust it from the region. Such a move is supported by some in Armenia amid disillusionment with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) following the 2020 war with Azerbaijan and a 2022 incursion into Armenia itself.