Conflict and Peace

For those who are believers in multilateralism and a rules based international system last night's developments in the UN Security Council were a dark and disappointing moment. The Council considered a resolution put forward by more than sixty UN member states, which strongly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called on Moscow to withdraw its troops immediately and provide safe access for humanitarian relief work. Russia, which has veto power as one of five permanent members of the council, voted against it and vetoed it as was expected. Eleven countries voted in favour. There was disappointment that three countries - China, India and UAE - abstained.

The prominent human rights organisation, Amnesty International, has accused Russia of indiscriminate attacks against civilians during its current invasion of Ukraine. In its report, Amnesty International says that, "the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been marked by indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas and strikes on protected objects such as hospitals. Indiscriminate attacks violate international humanitarian law (the laws of war) and can constitute war crimes. “The Russian military has shown a blatant disregard for civilian lives by using ballistic missiles and other explosive weapons with wide area effects in densely populated areas. Some of these attacks may be war crimes. The Russian government, which falsely claims to use only precision-guided weapons, should take responsibility for these acts,” said Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General.

In unleashing this war on Thursday morning, President Putin assured Russians it was going to be a short war, even though he knows very well this is not going to be the case, and that the cost for Russia is going to be enormous. Whether the Russian people have the same single minded view of things as Putin does is another matter. Most Russians usually fall in line once the men in the Kremlin – or in this case the man in the Kremlin – have made up their mind. Putin’s Russia is no democracy, but Russians are aware of what is going on around them. One can sense a disquiet at the turn of events which augurs badly for Mr Putin. A long protracted conflict will severely test the resilience of the current Russian leadership. Already last night, thousands took to the streets in Russian cities, to protest against the war. Many shouted, this is Putin's war, not ours.

Continuing in the cynical mode that he has been using throughout the crisis Putin claimed his plans “don’t include occupation of Ukrainian territory, we are not going to impose anything on anyone by force.” “To anyone who would consider interfering from outside: If you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All the relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me,” he said.