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Stories related to violent conflicts, diplomatic tensions, and conflict prevention, mediation and resolution.

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Commentary
The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine
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The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine

14 May 2024
Vladimir Putin was sworn in for another six-year term as the President of Russia on Tuesday, 7 May. With Putin having been the undisputed leader of Russia for decades, continuity, one would have thought, was assured. Yet Putin himself, on Monday (13 May) speaking at a meeting of the Security Council spoke of “a new political cycle” in Russia. Some of the first decisions of the re-elected president give us a sense of what is to come. First, there was the surprise dismissal of Sergei Shoigu as Minister of Defence, and his transfer to be the Secretary of the Security Council. There had been speculation for some time that Shoigu’s time at the Ministry of Defence was up. But what was surprising was the appointment of Andrei Belousov, former Deputy Prime Minister – an efficient technocrat with an economic background to replace him. That the Russian Ministry of Defence has needed a shake-up for some time has been abundantly clear, but Andrei Belousov’s mission seems to be more ambitious than that: He is tasked with transforming the Russian Defence Ministry into a modern institution that can embrace new ideas and techniques, and that has enough flexibility to conduct the sort of hybrid warfare that is likely to be the order of the day going forward. So despite all of Putin’s bravados about the Russian nuclear arsenal, it seems he is putting his faith in a more innovative, agile, and versatile force. Then on Monday, 13 May, Putin held his first meeting of the Security Council since his inauguration. The Kremlin website only referred to one item out of apparently several that were discussed, namely relations with the post-Soviet Republics, a subject much close to the heart of the president. Putin reiterated that this was a priority in foreign policy. Putin said, “we should pay even more attention to this area in the new political cycle in Russia and discuss the way we will organise this work from all points of view, including organisational”. So it appears that there is new thinking in this sphere, details of which is not yet known.
commonspace.eu editorial team

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Opinion
Opinion: No Peace is possible with zero trust
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Opinion: No Peace is possible with zero trust

9 January 2023
"If one side of the conflict, regardless of the motives and explanations, takes action to starve the civilian population of the other side, trust will not reach the zero level; it may go beyond zero. Thus, all external actors, who have been involved in the complicated task of creating some trust between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, should clearly express their position – the blockade of the Lachin corridor should be stopped immediately. At the same time, negotiations should continue to address any concerns of Azerbaijan without breaching the November 10, 2020, trilateral declaration, writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu.
Benyamin Poghosyan
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News
Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas in the shadow of the Ukraine-Russia War
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Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas in the shadow of the Ukraine-Russia War

7 January 2023
Orthodox Christians all over the world on Saturday (7 January) celebrate Christmas in accordance with the Julian Calander. On the eve, Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill delivered a Christmas service in the Christ the Saviour Cathedral in Moscow, and the scene was repeated in Christian Orthodox Churches across Eastern Europe and the Middle East and world wide. This Christmas however sees the Orthodox world in conflict with itself as the Ukraine-Russia War rages on. In the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Ukrainians ventured out into a light dusting of snow to buy gifts, cakes and groceries for Christmas Eve family celebrations.  In a video message, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised Ukrainians as “united as never before” and lamented that the conflict has forced many to abandon Christmas folk traditions that prohibit sewing and hunting. “It is forbidden to sew and knit, but we weave camouflage nets and sew bulletproof vests, overcoming evil. Our ancestors did not go hunting in these days, but we fight so that we do not become prey and to defeat the beast,” he said. Putin attended services at the Annunciation Cathedral, one of several churches on the grounds of the Kremlin.
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Opinion
Opinion: EU mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is needed now more than ever
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Opinion: EU mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is needed now more than ever

6 January 2023
The stalemate in the process of normalising relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan has created new risks. Writing for commonspace.eu in this op-ed, Vasif Huseynov says that "there is widespread concern in the region that the sides might end up in a violent military escalation this year if they fail to sign a peace treaty and agree on a roadmap for the resolution of the remaining disputes concerning the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan and the re-opening of regional transportation links. Under these circumstances, there is a great need for the constructive intervention and active mediation of the EU, without which Baku and Yerevan are unlikely to be able to overcome the difficulties created by the Russian side", he argues.
Vasif Huseynov
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News
Putin orders Orthodox Christmas ceasefire, rejected by Ukraine
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Putin orders Orthodox Christmas ceasefire, rejected by Ukraine

5 January 2023
Following an appeal from Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a 36-hour ceasefire along the front line in Ukraine over Orthodox Christmas. Scheduled to begin on Friday at 12pm Moscow time, the ceasefire ordered by Putin was quickly rejected by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian presidential advisor Mikhailo Podolyak responded by saying that "[The Russian Federation] must leave the occupied territories - only then will it have a 'temporary truce'". He added that Russia should "keep hypocrisy to yourself". Over the New Year celebrations, Russia launched one of its biggest drone attacks on critical infrastructure and main population centres in Ukraine since the start of its full-scale war. Ukraine says that it successfully destroyed all 84 of the drones that Russia launched over the New Year period. Patriarch Kirill had asked "all the parties involved" in the conflict to "cease fire and establish a Christmas truce". A subsequent statement by the Kremlin read: "Taking into consideration the appeal by [Kirill], the president hereby instructs the minister of defence of the Russian Federation to impose a ceasefire regime along the entire line of contact in Ukraine", ending at midnight on Sunday.
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News
Ukraine under massive Russian attack
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Ukraine under massive Russian attack

29 December 2022
Cities across Ukraine have been targeted by a wave of Russian missile strikes, in one of the largest bombardments since the war began. At least three people - including a 14-year-old girl - were taken to hospital after explosions hit the capital Kyiv, Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said. Blasts were also heard in the cities of Kharkiv, Odesa, Lviv and Zhytomyr. Ukraine's military said 69 missiles were launched, with air defences intercepting 54 of them. Earlier, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said more than 120 missiles had been launched at civilian infrastructure. The air raid lasted for close to five hours and the regional leader of the southern province of Odesa, Maksym Marchenko, spoke of a "massive missile attack on Ukraine". The Ukrainian Air Force said Russia attacked the country from "various directions with air and sea-based cruise missiles". It added that a number of Kamikaze drones had also been used. As air raid alerts sounded in all regions of the country, presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych urged civilians to seek shelter and said the country's air defences were operating.
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Opinion
Opinion: 2022 - a year of high expectations tempered by dire realities
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Opinion: 2022 - a year of high expectations tempered by dire realities

29 December 2022
After the wave of diplomatic activities in late September – early October 2022, it seemed that the idea of signing a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan by the end of 2022 was more than a dream. However, November – December 2022 proved that pessimists were closer to reality. After Russia re-inserted itself in the negotiation process by organizing a new trilateral leaders' summit on October 31, 2022, and Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met in Washington on November 7, 2022; the peace process stalled. In the current situation, the external players involved in the negotiations and interested in preventing a resumption of hostilities should focus on preserving the fragile stability that emerged after September aggression by Azerbaijan. In this context, the resumption of the Brussels format of negotiations is of utmost importance. Otherwise, the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and Armenia – Azerbaijan relations risk becoming another pawn in Russia – US confrontation, with negative implications for all sides.
Benyamin Poghosyan
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