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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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Interview
Thursday Interview: Régis Genté

Thursday Interview: Régis Genté

Europe has grown uncomfortably familiar with Russia’s policy towards its “near abroad”: the former Soviet states that Moscow continues to treat as part of its rightful sphere of influence. Sheltered by NATO and still invested in managing relations with Russia, Western capitals responded to the 2008 war in Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea as serious but containable shocks: the first largely through mediation and monitoring, the second through non-recognition and sanctions. That sense of distance has since collapsed. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 turned the post-Soviet space into a central theatre of European security, while Donald Trump has further unsettled confidence in the NATO umbrella itself. Few observers are better placed to make sense of this moment than Régis Genté. A French journalist based in Tbilisi for more than two decades, he has covered the South Caucasus and the wider post-Soviet world for Le Figaro, Radio France Internationale, and France 24, alongside policy work for think tanks including IFRI. In his book Notre homme à Washington: Trump dans la main des Russes, he argues that the US president's posture toward Moscow is neither erratic nor accidental, but the product of a four-decade Russian cultivation that has tied Trump to the Kremlin more tightly than Washington or Brussels yet admits. In this conversation, he traces those ties, explains how Putin keeps Russia's elites bound to the Kremlin, and reads Georgia's political crisis as a case study in Russian post-imperial influence. (To read the full interview, click on the image above.)