OPINION: Dennis Sammut - "The “Bidhzina Phenomena” and the Caucasus Region."

As the process of political transition in Georgia gathers pace, and with the prospect of political co-habitation between the two main political forces in the country, at least for the next year, the question now needs to be asked how the new situation will impact the region of the Caucasus as a whole.

In this special commentary for Caucasus Elections Watch Dennis Sammut analysis the impact of the “Bidhzina phenomena” on the Caucasus Region.

The Georgian Dream leader, Bidhzina Ivanishvili has kept his comments on foreign policy focused firmly on commitments to Georgia’s European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations, and some general comments on rebuilding relations with Russia. However some of his closest associates have spoken more specifically on the need to recalibrate Georgia’s foreign policy to make it more focused towards the region and the immediate neighbours.

In an exclusive interview with Caucasus Elections Watch three weeks before the election, one of the Coalition leaders, Irakli Alasania, now designated as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence in the new Government, stated “Georgia’s Foreign policy should be refocused on establishing regional stability in the Caucasus. It should concentrate on assisting the neighbours to settle their differences and build a more integrated region.”.

A few days later, the Georgian Dream Foreign Affairs spokesman, and now designated as the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the new Parliament, Tedo Japaridze, speaking in Brussels, also called for a refocus of foreign policy to give more attention to regional issues.

These are welcome developments that would be appreciated in western capitals, where it was always hoped that Georgia could play a more positive role in regional issues.

In the Caucasus itself, the Governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan remain somewhat baffled and cautious about developments in Georgia. In the run up to the elections the two governments had failed to open proper lines of communication with the Georgian Dream opposition, fearing that they would upset President Saakashvili. The votes of the Armenian and Azerbaijani minorities were dutifully delivered to the ruling party with a nod and a wink from Baku and Yerevan. This perhaps will be the last time that this will happen.

All sides now need to reach out to each other. The region desperately needs regional co-operation and Georgia can play an important role in facilitating this.

It will not be easy, and if the past is any experience, it can even be unpleasant. However the benefits for Georgia in becoming a regional hub are enormous, and it will also add a lot to its political kudos. This is however not a one way affair. Georgia has problems of its own with its large neighbour Russia. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan need to weigh in to help normalise relations between Georgia and Russia. There is a win-win situation in this for everybody – even if the major problems such as that of the unrecognised entities remain unresolved for some time to come.

Georgia’s dealings with its own Armenian and Azerbaijani minorities need to become more sophisticated, and less patronising. This is a sensitive issue for Georgia but it is now time to bring these communities properly within the political process, not through symbolic actions but through proper empowerment.

The election campaign has shown just how determined and resourceful is Bidhzina Ivanishvili. Those who thought of him as simply a rich man now need to reassess their evaluation. Ivanishvili is much more than that. He is a phenomena that has hit Georgia like a storm, and can do likewise for the region, shuffling all the certainties of the past.

Ivanishvili needs to take the bull by the horns on the issue of regional relations and show that he means business. There are things Georgia can do unilaterally without waiting for anybody else. Ivanishvili should move fast to build relations with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, and they on their part should welcome this and respond with equal enthusiasm.

This comment was contributed by Dennis Sammut, Executive Director of LINKS.

The article was first published in electionswatch.org

Related articles

Editor's choice
News
European Commission Disburses €1.24 Billion to Boost Ukraine’s Defence Industry

European Commission Disburses €1.24 Billion to Boost Ukraine’s Defence Industry

The European Commission disbursed €1.24 billion to Ukraine on Wednesday (October 7) under the defence component of the €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan, earmarked for drones, drone interceptors, ammunition, and missiles produced by Ukrainian entities. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the payment would strengthen Ukraine’s defence industry and its ability to protect people and infrastructure. She described Russia’s ongoing attacks as a deliberate strategy intended to make daily life increasingly difficult for Ukrainians. The Ukraine Support Loan provides an indicative €60 billion for defence and €30 billion for budgetary assistance during 2026–2027. The European Commission plans to disburse €28.3 billion for Ukraine’s defence industrial capacity in 2026, with further payments under the defence component expected in the coming weeks. Funding decisions are based on Ukraine’s evolving requirements and remain subject to agreed conditions and monitoring. According to Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyi, the latest payment brings Ukraine’s defence financing received through the programme to nearly €13 billion. He said the government would continue working with European partners to ensure the remaining planned funding is delivered on schedule and in full For the remainder of 2026, €32.5 billion in EU financial support remains available to Ukraine. This includes €28.1 billion under the Ukraine Support Loan – €15.4 billion for defence industrial capacity and €12.7 billion in budget support. A further €4.4 billion remains available through the Ukraine Facility, bringing the total budget support available for 2026 to more than €17 billion, subject to Ukraine meeting the relevant conditions. Since 2022, the EU and its member states have provided €228.7 billion in overall support to Ukraine, including €3.8 billion generated from immobilised Russian assets.
Editor's choice
News
In Ethiopia, government forces take rebel capital

In Ethiopia, government forces take rebel capital

Government forces in Ethiopia, have taken control of the town of Mekelle, capital of the Tigray region. Earlier, Ethiopia's federal military said it had recaptured the main airport in the capital of the northern Tigray region, dealing a major setback to an ​opposition alliance in its stronghold. Clashes pitting a rebel alliance led by Tigray's ruling party ‌against the government and its allied forces broke out in northern Ethiopia last week, in the most serious escalation of violence since a 2020-2022 civil war. The fighting has stoked fears that it could escalate into a wider regional conflict, potentially drawing in neighbouring ​countries in the Horn of Africa and the Gulf. In recent days Ethiopia and Eritrea broke off diplomatic relations amid mutual accusations. In Washington, State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott ​said the United States strongly urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to "exercise maximum restraint and return ⁠to dialogue and cooperation as agreed in their 2018 peace framework." "The Horn of Africa cannot sustain another ​military conflict and humanitarian crisis," Pigott said. "A conflict jeopardizes ongoing U.S. collaboration on shared interests with both countries." The ​federal government in Addis Ababa accused Eritrea of supporting the rebel alliance alongside Sudan and Egypt. The three countries deny this. Troops from the Ethiopian National Defence Forces had regained control of Alula Aba ​Nega Airport in Tigray's capital Mekelle,   A Mekelle resident who asked not to be named for security reasons, confirmed the ‌taking of ⁠the airport by government forces and added they could hear gunfire outside the city centre. This source said they had seen some Tigrayan Defence Force fighters abandoning their posts and heading home, and that there was looting of government facilities taking place in the city. Mekelle's airport, which ​is around 10 km (6 miles) from the centre of the city, was ​one of three ⁠airports in the region that were seized by the opposition forces at the start of the fighting on September 23. The taking of Mekelle by government forces would be a major setback for the opposition alliance, although analysts say ⁠it ​would be unlikely to end the conflict. In 2020, federal forces captured ​Mekelle within the first month of the two year war before the TPLF reclaimed it seven months later.

Popular

Editor's choice
Interview
Thursday Interview: Murad Muradov

Thursday Interview: Murad Muradov

Today, commonspace.eu starts a new regular weekly series. THURSDAY INTERVIEW, conducted by Lauri Nikulainen, will host  persons who are thinkers, opinion shapers, and implementors in their countries and spheres. We start the series with an interview with Murad Muradov, a leading person in Azerbaijan's think tank community. He is also the first co-chair of the Action Committee for a new Armenian-Azerbaijani Dialogue. Last September he made history by being the first Azerbaijani civil society activist to visit Armenia after the 44 day war, and the start of the peace process. Speaking about this visit Murad Muradov said: "My experience was largely positive. My negative expectations luckily didn’t play out. The discussions were respectful, the panel format bringing together experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey was particularly valuable during the NATO Rose-Roth Seminar in Yerevan, and media coverage, while varied in tone, remained largely constructive. Some media outlets though attempted to represent me as more of a government mouthpiece than an independent expert, which was totally misleading.  Overall, I see these initiatives as important steps in rebuilding trust and normalising professional engagement. The fact that soon a larger Azerbaijani civil society visits to Armenia followed, reinforces the sense that this process is moving in the right direction." (click the image to read the interview in full)