A major NATO summit in Warsaw concluded this weekend, with a strongly worded communiqué pledging support to eastern European allies against Russian threats at a time leaders are ramping up defence spending in an increasingly uncertain world.
"We remain committed in our support for the territorial integrity, independence, and sovereignty of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and the Republic of Moldova,” said the NATO statement. More support was pledged to Georgia and Ukraine at the summit, and deeper military links agreed.
As expected, the Summit did not give Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP), widely seen as a requisite step for membership. This despite it being in many respects a model NATO partner, participating in joint military operations and working with NATO command structures. Montenegro, a newer NATO ally compared to Georgia, was invited to join in December. Yet the Summit Communique makes it clear that the door for full NATO membership remains open for Georgia, and its contribution to the Atlantic alliance is now increasingly recognised.
In a visit to Tbilisi last week, US Secretary of State John Kerry, in meetings with Georgia’s prime minister and president, pledged more military cooperation in a memorandum which went further than previous US-Georgia military agreements, which mainly focused on joint military operations.
"The memorandum… will support the acquisition of defense and related articles to improve the interoperability, sustainability and deployability of Georgia’s forces… to be able to work and cooperate with the other forces of NATO," said Kerry.
Further steps to increase NATO-Georgia security capabilities were announced in Warsaw. “Support to the development of Georgia’s air defence and air surveillance” was one of the things pledged in a joint statement. Air defence is an area in which increased cooperation is particularly important, said Tina Khidasheli, Georgia’s defence minister. “We have been asking NATO for additional capabilities and, even more important, integration into NATO’s system, and that’s what we received [in Warsaw],” she said.
NATO said ‘significant progress’ has been made on implementing the Substantial NATO Georgia Package introduced at the last NATO summit in Wales in 2014, with a Joint Training and Evaluation Centre (JTEC) inaugurated in Georgia, and many experts from NATO allied countries travelling to the country to advise on issues such as cyber defence and aviation.
At a time when the number of global threats is increasing, there are signs of a reverse to a long-term downward trend in defence spending by European powers. However, only the United States, Britain, Poland, Estonia and Greece hit the NATO target of two percent of GDP going on defence spending each year.
"The majority of allies are still not hitting that two percent mark," said President Obama. "So we had a very candid conversation about this.” The American president was recorded as saying “free riders aggravate me” with reference to the NATO commitment, in an interview with the Atlantic earlier this year. "In good times, and in bad, Europe can count on the United States. Always," he said in the Polish capital.
France and Germany have recently announced plans for multiyear increases in defence spending, after years of cuts. “We still have a long way to go. But I believe that we have turned a corner,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Warsaw.
NATO is strengthening its operations security in the Black Sea region, which is especially important to regional stability given a sharp increase in terrorism in Turkey over the past year, and continued fighting in Ukraine.
"We’re bolstering our efforts on NATO’s southern flank,” said Obama in Warsaw. "We’re going to do more to help partners from North Africa to the Middle East to Georgia strengthen their own defence capacity.”
NATO and the United States both reaffirmed their commitment to Ukraine at a time when there is still ongoing fighting in the east of the country. “The U.S.-Ukraine defense relationship is transitioning from ‘crisis-response’ to an enduring partnership aimed at developing more capable, NATO-interoperable Ukrainian Armed Forces,” said a White House statement at the weekend. A NATO ‘Comprehensive Assistance Package’ to Ukraine was unveiled in Warsaw, which will offer advisory and practical support, as well as funds.
Many analysts and observers said Britain’s recent vote to leave the European Union cast a shadow over the summit. Although ‘Brexit’ will not directly impact on NATO, such a radical change to the world order is likely to have deep and unpredictable consequences for years to come. "We are at a NATO meeting, but most of the discussions have not been about NATO issues, they have been about the outcome of the referendum and the consequences," said Philip Hammond, Britain’s foreign minister.
Some Georgians are worrying that increasing Euroscepticism at the heart of Europe – not just in Britain but also in Germany and France – will mean focus will move away from countries like Georgia, and European leaders will be unwilling to spend political capital on expanding alliances and commitments overseas.
Many Georgians feel understandably feel let down by the EU and NATO in recent months. The EU long said a visa-free deal for Georgian tourists was on the cards, but postponed it last month. This was ostensibly to ensure more safeguards are in place, but more likely because of domestic political concerns, as well as because of German concerns on a Georgian deal’s implications on a potential Ukrainian peace agreement.
Georgia has made all the relevant demands NATO requires in order to become a fully-fledged member, and contributes more to NATO’s international operations than many existing members. However a MAP is not on the horizon despite NATO saying Georgia has “all the practical tools to prepare for eventual membership” in December.
“We welcome the significant progress realised since 2008. Georgia’s relationship with the Alliance contains all the practical tools to prepare for eventual membership,” said the NATO final statement. “This year’s parliamentary elections will be another key step towards the consolidation of democratic institutions.”
During the Warsaw summit six major Georgian political parties, in a significant display of unity during an election campaign, issued a joint statement affirming support for NATO aspirations. Although opposition to NATO is more widespread than in recent years in Georgia, there continues to be a widespread political consensus.
“We stand united on one principle: that Georgia is a sovereign, independent state, and the Georgian people are committed to building a European democracy that cherishes freedom, economic opportunity, and security, and aspires to full membership in all Euro-Atlantic institutions,” the joint statement said.
The signatories include the ruling Georgian Dream party, coalition partner the Republican Party, main opposition party United National Movement, and three smaller parties.
“We believe that Georgia’s membership in NATO will positively affect the process of Georgian statecraft, as well as contribute to security and stability in the wider region.”
This a commentary by the editorial team of commonspace.eu
