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Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Opinion: The future of the China-US-Russia triangle after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

Since February 24, 2022, the international community's focus was concentrated entirely on the war in Ukraine and the growing Russia – West confrontation. It seemed that nothing could change the situation until the end of hostilities in Ukraine. However, on August 2 and 3, almost everyone’s attention shifted from Ukraine to Taiwan. As the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stated her intention to visit Taiwan, up to half a million people were watching the trajectory of her plane on air flight tracking sites. The negative reaction of China, including the warning of President Xi during his conversation with President Biden that those who played with fire would be perished by it, created hype around this visit. Many were discussing the possibility of Chinese military jets closing the airspace over Taiwan and preventing Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan, while some enthusiasts were even contemplating the possibility of a US-China direct military clash. As Pelosi landed in Taiwan and met with the Taiwanese President, the global social media was full of amateur assessments about the strategic victory of the US and the confirmation of the US global hegemony. However, as the dust settles down, and information noise and manipulation eventually decreases, a more serious assessment is needed to understand the real consequences of this visit.
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GULF CRISIS
Shanghai Co-operation Organisation holds its annual summit in Bishkek

Shanghai Co-operation Organisation holds its annual summit in Bishkek

On 1 September 2026, the 26th meeting of the Council of Heads of State (CHS) of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was held at the Yrys-Ordo Congress Hall (Bishkek) under the chairmanship of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Sadyr Japarov. The meeting was attended by President of the Republic of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko, Prime Minister of the Republic of India Narendra Modi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, as well as SCO Secretary General Nurlan Yermekbayev and Director of the Executive Committee of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure Ularbek Sharsheev. The summit focused on issues of multilateral cooperation across the full range of areas: politics, security, trade, investment, energy, industry, ecology, tourism, new technologies, as well as matters of improving the Organisation's activities and the international agenda. During the discussions, the leaders put forward a number of initiatives and proposals for the further development of cooperation within the SCO. In his address, SCO Secretary General Nurlan Yermekbayev noted the active and effective chairmanship of the Kyrgyz Republic in the Organisation, emphasising its substantive and practical orientation. The Secretary General also touched upon issues of enhancing the efficiency of the Organisation's activities and the effectiveness of its sectoral mechanisms. He noted that even in today's challenging conditions, the Organisation manages to develop common positions, maintain its peace-loving, non-bloc character, and mutual trust. Nurlan Yermekbayev separately focused on the intensification of the SCO's interaction with international and regional organisations. Among the practical results, he highlighted the approval of the SCO–CSTO–CIS Roadmap and the holding of the first trilateral event in this format, the SCO obtaining observer status at the CIS, as well as the development of cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Commission, the UN Environment Programme, and the League of Arab States, and the signing of a Memorandum with the Central Asian Regional Information and Coordination Centre. Contacts have also been established with a number of other international structures. The Secretary General emphasized that the Organisation's effectiveness largely depends on the performance of its sectoral mechanisms – meetings of heads of ministries and agencies. Following the CHS meeting, 28 documents were approved, including the Bishkek Declaration, the Protocol on Amendments and Additions to the SCO Charter, the Statement of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO Member States on Assistance to States Affected by Emergencies, as well as a number of other statements on key areas of the Organisation's activities. Decisions were made to sign a Memorandum of Understanding between the SCO Secretariat and the African Union Commission, and to approve the provisions on the Universal Centre for Countering Challenges and Threats to the Security of SCO Member States and on the Executive Committee of the SCO Anti-Drug Centre. The 26th CHS meeting of the SCO was the culmination of the Kyrgyz chairmanship in the Organisation in 2025–2026, held under the motto: "25 Years of the SCO: Together for Sustainable Peace, Development and Prosperity." The chairmanship for 2026–2027 was passed to the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, whose leader defined the theme of the chairmanship as "Turning Vision into Action: Connectivity, Innovation and Shared Prosperity”. "SCO Plus" meeting was held under the theme: “The UN as a Key Element of a Just World Order: The Contribution of the SCO Plus States to the Formation of a Multipolar World. The event was attended by the leaders of the member states, the observer state – Mongolia, dialogue partners – Azerbaijan, Armenia, Egypt, Laos, Turkey, and guests of the presiding side – Vietnam, Togo, as well as heads of the executive bodies of the EAEU, CSTO, UN, CICA, and CIS.
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Leaders of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation gather in Bishkek

Leaders of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation gather in Bishkek

The 2026 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Heads of State summit takes place from Tuesday, September 1, in Bishkek. It is being hosted by the president of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, who currently holds the SCO chair. High-level meetings will also be held in the SCO Plus format. The SCO summit will be attended by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko; Chinese President Xi Jinping; Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi; Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian; Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev; Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif; Russian President Vladimir Putin; Tajik President Emomali Rahmon; Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev; as well as  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan; Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh; Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Togo Faure Essozimna Gnassingbé; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith; the Vice President of Vietnam Võ Thị Ánh Xuân; and the Deputy Prime Minister of Egypt Hussein Issa. Representatives of international organisations include UN Secretary-General António Guterres; CIS Secretary-General Sergei Lebedev; CSTO Secretary-General Taalatbek Masadykov; Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission Bakytzhan Sagintaev; and Secretary General of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia Kairat Sarybay. The member-state session brings together Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Combined, these ten SCO countries have a collective GDP (PPP) of about 36% of the global total (US$80 trillion) and a population of about 3.4 billion. They will discuss pressing issues on the international and regional agenda and priority areas for the SCO’s development, as well as prospects for deepening cooperation in the political, trade and economic, transport and logistics, digital, environmental, cultural and humanitarian spheres. Following the meeting, a ‘Bishkek Declaration’, marking the 25th anniversary of the SCO, as well as documents and decisions aimed at further strengthening multifaceted cooperation and improving the organisation’s activities, will be signed. A number of thematic statements by the heads of state will also be adopted. At the expanded SCO Plus format, participants will exchange views on strengthening the central coordinating role of the United Nations and international law, as well as promoting sustainable development and expanding mutually beneficial cooperation.
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GULF CRISIS
After a lull of one month, US-Iran military confrontation resumes

After a lull of one month, US-Iran military confrontation resumes

For about one month, since July, the confrontion between the United States and Iran has largely been limited to verbal abuse and threats. This strange lull in military hostilities has now been broken. Iran says it launched missiles at two US bases in Jordan following a US attack on Larak Island in southern Iran earlier on Sunday. US forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, marking the first known American attack on Iran since late July and triggering a fresh escalation between Washington and Tehran. Iran said the strike killed and wounded soldiers and civilians, while the Revolutionary Guards vowed a response and later claimed attacks on US military positions in Jordan and a UAE air base. A US official confirmed that American forces targeted two Iranian launchers on Larak Island after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces were observed preparing to launch rockets carrying sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command spokesman Cdr Tim Hawkins said the operation was a “limited, precise action” against minelaying forces that posed an imminent threat to the strategic waterway. The US military did not identify the target in its social media post, but a US official confirmed to Reuters that the strike took place on Larak Island. In a statement reported by Iranian news agencies on Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the combined missile and drone operation, which it called “Punishment of the Aggressor”, hit the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in Jordan. The exchange of attacks is the first flare-up in violence between the two sides since late July. The IRGC said the strikes “destroyed the technical and repair infrastructure, as well as the enemy fighter deployment sites”, inflicting significant damage. Jordan reported intercepting eight missiles soon after the IRGC announced the attack. “Air defence systems intercepted eight missiles that breached the Kingdom’s airspace at dawn today, Monday,” the Jordanian military said in a statement. No injuries were reported at either base. In a further development on Monday, the IRGC said it shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Fars and Mehr news agencies cited a statement from the IRGC that said that its air defences had intercepted “a long-range American MQ9 drone” over the Strait of Hormuz, which then fell into the Gulf. In his first comments since the US attack on Iran’s Larak Island, President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Tehran was “not looking for war”, but would “never sit still in the face of any aggression” either. Pezeshkian made the comments as he was leaving for Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, to attend the summit of the heads of state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation countries.