Editor's choice
Editorial
Editorial: Time is up for the Georgian Dream and its leader Bidzina Ivanishvili

Editorial: Time is up for the Georgian Dream and its leader Bidzina Ivanishvili

Time is up for the Georgian Dream and its leader Bidzina Ivanishvili. The party came to power in Georgia in 2012 leading a coalition representing all sorts of different views in Georgian society. They were united in wanted to end the rule of Mikheil Saakashvili and his United National Movement party, which had been a rather negative and oppressive force in Georgia in latter years.
Editor's choice
Opinion
Opinion: The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Has Changed. So Must Civil Society

Opinion: The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Has Changed. So Must Civil Society

Four years after the Second Karabakh War, civil society initiatives between Armenian and Azerbaijan remain arguably less impactful than ever before. On the surface, they appear few and far between, but many are often held in secret. The reason given is often security but that argument is no longer as credible as it was before. Indeed, nearly all projects that do exist remain largely untouched and unhindered. Instead, mirroring the situation before 2020, many Armenian practitioners refused to meet with their Azerbaijani counterparts, especially while Baku still held prisoners and other detainees from the war. That number is significantly less now. Time has passed and there may finally be the realisation that dialogue is the only way forward.
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Opinion
Opinion: An incomplete treaty between Baku and Yerevan will not bring peace

Opinion: An incomplete treaty between Baku and Yerevan will not bring peace

Over the past two years, numerous unofficial deadlines have been set for signing the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty. Until the end of last year, the people of both countries held their breath in anticipation of a breakthrough, encouraged by officials on both sides who deemed an agreement possible. Later, there was significant optimism that the two former adversaries might reach a deal during the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) which was held on November 11-24 in Baku.
Editor's choice
Opinion
Opinion: Pashinyan proposes partial withdrawal of EUMA from Armenia-Azerbaijan border

Opinion: Pashinyan proposes partial withdrawal of EUMA from Armenia-Azerbaijan border

With the conclusion of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 in Azerbaijan, discussions with Armenia on normalising relations are expected to resume in December. However, it remains uncertain whether an agreement will be reached anytime soon, as past attempts to finalise talks have consistently fallen short. That said, there may now be some clarity regarding the three key issues believed to be preventing a breakthrough. In early November, Farid Shafiyev, Chair of the Centre for Analysis of International Relations (AIR) in Azerbaijan, shared on X what he claims are the specific points left unresolved.
Editor's choice
Analysis
Analysis: China and the South Caucasus

Analysis: China and the South Caucasus

China is a relatively new player in the South Caucasus but has growing interests, particularly in the economic domain. While Beijing established diplomatic ties with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 1990s, it largely stayed out of the region’s geopolitics. Armenia acquired Chinese-made WM-80 multiple-launch systems in 1999, but they had little impact on the military balance with Azerbaijan. Chinese economic ties with the South Caucasus began to grow in the early 2000s, driven by the rapid expansion of its economy. Interest in the region deepened after President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, with the South Caucasus envisioned as a potential land route connecting China to Europe.

Focus on Central Asia

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Commentary
The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine

The fate of Central Asia may be decided on the steppes and in the forests of Ukraine

Vladimir Putin was sworn in for another six-year term as the President of Russia on Tuesday, 7 May. With Putin having been the undisputed leader of Russia for decades, continuity, one would have thought, was assured. Yet Putin himself, on Monday (13 May) speaking at a meeting of the Security Council spoke of “a new political cycle” in Russia. Some of the first decisions of the re-elected president give us a sense of what is to come. First, there was the surprise dismissal of Sergei Shoigu as Minister of Defence, and his transfer to be the Secretary of the Security Council. There had been speculation for some time that Shoigu’s time at the Ministry of Defence was up. But what was surprising was the appointment of Andrei Belousov, former Deputy Prime Minister – an efficient technocrat with an economic background to replace him. That the Russian Ministry of Defence has needed a shake-up for some time has been abundantly clear, but Andrei Belousov’s mission seems to be more ambitious than that: He is tasked with transforming the Russian Defence Ministry into a modern institution that can embrace new ideas and techniques, and that has enough flexibility to conduct the sort of hybrid warfare that is likely to be the order of the day going forward. So despite all of Putin’s bravados about the Russian nuclear arsenal, it seems he is putting his faith in a more innovative, agile, and versatile force. Then on Monday, 13 May, Putin held his first meeting of the Security Council since his inauguration. The Kremlin website only referred to one item out of apparently several that were discussed, namely relations with the post-Soviet Republics, a subject much close to the heart of the president. Putin reiterated that this was a priority in foreign policy. Putin said, “we should pay even more attention to this area in the new political cycle in Russia and discuss the way we will organise this work from all points of view, including organisational”. So it appears that there is new thinking in this sphere, details of which is not yet known.

Voices - Opinion and analysis

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Opinion
Opinion: Can Armenia and Azerbaijan finally reach an agreement by COP29?

Opinion: Can Armenia and Azerbaijan finally reach an agreement by COP29?

As this year's United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku draws closer, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be drifting further apart. Despite hopes that the opposite would be true, a lack of clarity and confusion instead continues to reign. Does the draft Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations contain 17 points or 16? Initially, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had announced that consensus had been reached on 13 points while 3 were partially agreed and there was no agreement at all on a fourth. Since then, official statements and media in Armenia instead refers to 16 points though Yerevan has reportedly ditched the three incomplete articles to make only 13.
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Opinion
Opinion: Are France and Azerbaijan drifting back to normal?

Opinion: Are France and Azerbaijan drifting back to normal?

Relations between France and Azerbaijan have been on a downward slope since the 44-day war in 2020, when Paris emerged as Armenia’s major international supporter, and the French parliament even voted, almost unanimously, for a resolution calling for the recognition of independence of the so-called “Republic of Artsakh”. Already during the war, Azerbaijani MFA claimed that Paris “ceased to be an honest broker”, and this position only hardened over time. Since then, the bilateral ties have been progressively deteriorating, especially after Azerbaijan’s military operation in Karabakh in September 2023: France became the country where calls to sanction Baku for its “ethnic cleansing” were the most vocal, while Azerbaijan started to attack Paris over its “neo-colonial” policies, targeting continued French sovereignty over several overseas territories, primarily New Caledonia whose independence movement has been active for decades.
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News
Bonn Contact Group on Climate Peace and Security ahead of COP29 final report presentation was held successfully in Berlin

Bonn Contact Group on Climate Peace and Security ahead of COP29 final report presentation was held successfully in Berlin

The Bonn Contact Group on Climate, Peace and Security ahead of COP29, held its final report presentation on 9 October at the Hertie School in Berlin, Germany. The meeting was attended by representatives of Berlin-based civil society organisations, policymakers, academics and international organisations. The meeting focused on three critical reports examining the intersections of climate change with water scarcity, land degradation and food insecurity. The event was organised by LINKS Europe in collaboration with the Restart Initiative and the Candid Foundation. 
Editor's choice
Event
South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School held successfully in Georgia from 21-31 August

South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School held successfully in Georgia from 21-31 August

The first South Caucasus Youth Peace Summer School (SCYPSS) was held successfully in Kachreti, Georgia from 21-31 August 2023. Thirty young participants aged between 21 and 29, ten each from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia participated in the Summer School. At the end of the Summer School participants also attended the South Caucasus Regional Dialogue Forum. The School and the Forum were organised by LINKS Europe, with the support of the European Union and the Government of Norway.
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News
Taking forward the work on landmine action advocacy in the South Caucasus - report issued after consultation process

Taking forward the work on landmine action advocacy in the South Caucasus - report issued after consultation process

LINKS Europe has just published a report on the future of landmine action advocacy in the South Caucasus based on a consultation process with stakeholders between June 2023 and February 2024. The report focuses on the regional campaign "Landmine Free South Caucasus", which was implemented from October 2018 to December 2023. A formal consultation process was held from 15 January to 15 February 2024, through an open call to which anyone could reply. In the course of the consultation process LINKS Europe held 22 in-person meetings, 12 online meetings. and received written submissions from several partners. The report makes 12 recommendations on how the work can be organised in the future.
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News
4 April is International Landmine Awareness Day

4 April is International Landmine Awareness Day

In the South Caucasus, the problem of landmines and other unexploded remnants of war remains a serious issue across the region. Over the last months, since the end of the 44-day Karabakh War, the problem has become more acute as efforts are made to rehabilitate territories that were until recently in the conflict zone. Most of these territories are heavily mined. Problems also remain in other areas on both the Armenian and the Azerbaijani sides of the line of contact and the international border.

Focus on Yemen

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News
Ship attacked by Yemen's Houthis in the Red Sea has sunk, but uncertainty remains over other vessel

Ship attacked by Yemen's Houthis in the Red Sea has sunk, but uncertainty remains over other vessel

Debris and oil have been found in the Red Sea, where the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier M/V Tutor was attacked by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis on 12 June 2024. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the vessel is believed to have sunk. One crew member, believed to be in the Tutor's engine room at the time of the attacks, remains missing.

Focus on the South Caucasus

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News
Tens of thousands take to the streets of Tbilisi to protest against repressive law

Tens of thousands take to the streets of Tbilisi to protest against repressive law

Tens of thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets of the capital Tbilisi on Saturday evening  (11 May) to protest a controversial "foreign influence" bill backed by the government. Protesters marched to the capital's Europe Square holding Georgian and EU flags, chanting “no to the Russian law”. The law would target civil society organisations and independent media that receive foreign funding. Massive rallies have gripped the Black Sea Caucasus country for nearly a month after the ruling Georgian Dream party reintroduced the bill. Despite a campaign of intimidation ahead of Saturday's rally - in which dozens of NGO workers, activists and opposition politicians received threats or were physically assaulted - protesters turned up in their thousands undeterred by the pouring rain. Opposition parties say the bill - coined "Russian law" after Russia's passing of similar legislation in 2012 - will be used by the government to clamp down on dissent. The US has said the bill threatens free speech. On Friday, foreign ministers of Nordic and Baltic states issued a joint statement urging the government in Tbilisi to reconsider the bill Last week, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the Georgian people want a "European future". "Georgia is at a crossroads. It should stay the course on the road to Europe," she posted on X. But the Georgian Dream government has defended the bill, saying it will "boost transparency" over NGOs' foreign funding. It aims to sign the measure into law by mid-May. If adopted, the law would require that any independent NGO and media organisation receiving more than 20% of its funding from abroad to register as an "organisation pursuing the interests of a foreign power". But the protesters fear it could be used to crush critical voices ahead of parliamentary elections later this year. The bill cleared its second parliamentary stage by a margin of 83 votes to 23. After a third reading, it has to be signed by President Salome Zurabishvili, who has vowed to veto it - although Georgian Dream has sufficient numbers in parliament to overrule her. In 2023, mass street protests forced Georgian Dream to drop plans for similar measures.
Editor's choice
Commentary
Commentary: The four Cs that will characterise Armenia-Azerbaijan relations for the next decade

Commentary: The four Cs that will characterise Armenia-Azerbaijan relations for the next decade

Armenia and Azerbaijan have practically been in a state of war with each other ever since they emerged as independent countries following the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. Over the last three years they have been negotiating, sometimes with the help of others, sometimes on their own, to end the cycle of violence and usher in a new era of peace. So far they have failed to agree on the text of a peace agreement, but it is likely that eventually they will, possibly quite soon. However, even in the absence of a formal peace agreement Armenia-Azerbaijan relations are changing, and will continue to change to become much more nuanced than has been the case so far. A relationship that has so far been based on confrontation and containment is making way for one based on contact and co-operation. The process is unlikely to be very quick, or simple and easy. At least for another decade Armenia-Azerbaijan relations will continue to be a mix of all four elements: confrontation, containment, contact and co-operation. Managing this mix will be the challenge facing the leadership in the two countries. The international community must be ready to support this process tangibly and speedily.
LINKS Europe

commonspace.eu is an activity of LINKS Europe, an independent foundation based in The Hague, The Netherlands. We focus on issues related to European peace and security, Europe's neighbouring regions, including Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia; North Africa and the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. LINKS Europe is committed to contributing to a better future by increasing understanding of complex foreign policy issues, by promoting dialogue and confidence-building as tools for helping to resolve conflict, and by engaging citizens in the process of building peace and security on the basis of solidarity and mutual respect. Through commonspace.eu, we aim to provide insights and analysis on different topics in our area of interest and a platform for diverse opinions.

Read LINKS Europe's work programme for the two-year period 2024-2025 here