Diplomacy

The visit of Recip Tayip Erdogan to Abu Dhabi marks the end of a period of rivalry and opens the prospects of serious co-operation that can be a game-changer in settings across the region.

The United States has called on all its citizens in Ukraine to leave the country before Monday, as war in Europe now appears imminent. Unofficial American sources say it is possible the Russian invasion of Ukraine will start on Wednesday, 16 February. The UK, the Netherlands and Latvia are among the countries that have also told their citizens in Ukraine to leave immediately. The EU has told its non-essential staff in Kyiv to leave also.

Monday was a day of high diplomacy as leaders scrambled to try to avoid war in Europe.  Nonetheless western countries continue to assess that the prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains real, and could happen at any moment. The Pentagon said on Monday (7 February) that Russia continued its military buildup on the border with Ukraine over the weekend.

"The EU’s reconsideration of its policies towards Armenia and Azerbaijan and its pursuit of a more balanced approach is likely to buttress the EU’s place in the post-war peace process and help it to play a more impactful mediating role", writes Vasif Husseynov in this op-ed. "If successful, this promises to have larger regional, and possibly geopolitical implications, for the South Caucasus, since the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations have so far been pursued mainly through the sole mediation of Russia".

Neither Russia nor China are interested in complete decoupling from the West, and both would like to maintain cooperative relations with the EU while fighting back against US pressure, argues Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed. In this context a Russia – China alliance against the 'Collective west" and the establishment of a new “iron curtain” completely separating them from Europe is possibly the worst outcome for Beijing and Moscow.

A statement posted on the website of the European Council said that "President Michel and President Macron reaffirmed their full commitment to supporting efforts aimed at reducing tension and building trust in the region."

Turkish president, Recip Tayip Erdogan, arrived in Kyiv on Thursday (3 February) with a message of support and solidarity for Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, but also urging all sides in the current stand-off with Russia to exercise restraint. "As a country in the Black Sea vicinity, Turkey invites all parties to exercise restraint and use dialogue to bring peace to the region", Erdogan said at the start of the visit.