Conflict and Peace

Russia has  started deploying troops to the Ukrainian regions of Lugansk and Donetsk shortly after president Putin signed decrees recognising the two breakaway regions as independent states. There is still uncertainty as to what the Russian endgame is. Parts of Lugansk and Donetsk have been under separatist control since 2014. But if the Russian forces try to move beyond these enclaves to territory controlled by the Ukrainian army some very heavy fighting is to be expected. There has been widespread international condemnation of Russia's action. The UN Security Council met in emergency session early on Tuesday morning. France, US and UK strongly condemned the Russian action. Several countries are expected to impose sanctions.

The  sight of refugees on their own continent amid the rumblings of war unsettles Europeans, many of who thought these were things of the past. Within the EU, a younger generation brought up in an era of peace and relative prosperity is struggling to understand the news coming out of Ukraine, and the human tragedy that is about to unfold unless there is some last minute diplomatic breakthrough. Indeed, for Europeans, Ukraine is the wake-up call they had hoped they would never get again.

The Ethiopian parliament voted on Tuesday (15 February) to lift the country's state of emergency citing improvements in the security situation. Ethiopia declared a state of emergency last November when the Tigrayan fighter vowed to reach the capital, Addis Ababa.

In an exclusive interview with commonspace.eu on the margins of his visit this week to The Hague, Georgia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Teimuraz Janjalia reiterated  his country's commitment to the Association Agreement signed with the EU in 2014. "The Association Agreement provides a basis for a strong value-based partnership between EU and Georgia, and we remain firmly committed to it".

LINKS Europe in collaboration with The City of The Hague, and with the support of The Hague Humanity Hub, hosted the fifth in a series of clusters of events titled ‘Conversations on the future of Europe in the world’ on Thursday, 3 February 2022. The event was hosted online from the LINKS Europe office in the The Hague, and around 50 participants joined. The series ‘Conversations on the future of Europe in the world’ contributes to the debate in the framework of the EU’s ‘Conference on the future of Europe’ process.

Monday was a day of high diplomacy as leaders scrambled to try to avoid war in Europe.  Nonetheless western countries continue to assess that the prospect of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains real, and could happen at any moment. The Pentagon said on Monday (7 February) that Russia continued its military buildup on the border with Ukraine over the weekend.

"The EU’s reconsideration of its policies towards Armenia and Azerbaijan and its pursuit of a more balanced approach is likely to buttress the EU’s place in the post-war peace process and help it to play a more impactful mediating role", writes Vasif Husseynov in this op-ed. "If successful, this promises to have larger regional, and possibly geopolitical implications, for the South Caucasus, since the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations have so far been pursued mainly through the sole mediation of Russia".

A statement posted on the website of the European Council said that "President Michel and President Macron reaffirmed their full commitment to supporting efforts aimed at reducing tension and building trust in the region."

Johnny Melikian and Ramazan Samadov are members of a Joint Liaison Group of Armenian and Azerbaijani experts preparing a report on how confidence building measures can support lasting peace in the South Caucasus. In this joint paper they discuss the important role of connectivity, which they say is a key factor in building the region's future.