Conflict and Peace

Reports have emerged online during Sunday (4 June) and early Monday morning (5 June) of increased fighting along the front line in Ukraine. Various social media sources that have regularly provided updates on the current situation on the ground in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 reported forward Ukrainian troop movements in a number of locations along the front line over the last 24 hours. On Monday morning, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said troops were "moving forward" towards the eastern city of Bakhmut, and had destroyed a Russian position near the city. As of 09.30 CET on Monday (4 June), nothing else regarding the ostensible counteroffensive has been officially stated by Ukrainian authorities. Yesterday, Ukrainian authorities published a video asking for people to withhold any precise information they may have on Ukrainian troop movements, saying "Plans love silence. There will be no announcement of the start [of the counteroffensive]." The footage featured masked and well-armed troops holding their fingers to their lips, stressing the importance of operational security.

The Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met yesterday (1 June) near the Moldovan capital, Chisinau. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the second summit of the European Political Community (EPC), and was chaired by the European Council President Charles Michel. The French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, were also in attendance. In remarks made following the meeting, President Michel said that they had a “very good meeting”, in which they addressed the topics of connectivity, security and rights, border delimitation, and the peace treaty. Michel announced that they had scheduled a next meeting of the five leaders for 21 July, to take place in Brussels, adding that yesterday’s meeting was “good preparation” for then. “It means that we are working hard, and we intend to support all the positive efforts in the direction of normalisation of the relations,” said Michel.

The dust of war from the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has started to settle, and although peace remains elusive, there is hope across the region for a better future. No-one has waited for this moment more than the hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis who were displaced by the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s.

Russia has launched three mass aerial assaults on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in 24 hours, with the latest coming in the early hours of Tuesday (30 May).  It was the 17th such attack just this month, with the Kyiv City Military Administration reporting that Iranian-made Shahed drones approached the city from different directions, and in several waves. According to Ukrainian authorities, the country's Air Defense shot down 29 out of 31 drones mostly fired at Kyiv. There are reports of one woman being killed and three others being injured after debris from a destroyed drone fell on a tower block, causing a fire. Drones shot down over other parts of Kyiv did not cause any other casualties, Kyiv City Military Administration reported. Between midnight and 5am yesterday, on Monday (29 May), Ukrainian Air Defenses had also fought off yet another aerial attack from Russia, shooting down 37 out of 40 cruise missiles, and 29 out of 35 Shahed drones. No casualties were reported on that occasion, although a second attack that came late morning yesterday reportedly injured one. Meanwhile, also on Tuesday morning, Muscovites awoke to the sound of explosions as alleged Ukrainian drones were shot down over Moscow. Although Russia's state-run RIA Novosti reports that eight drones were shot down over Moscow, reports on social media suggest that as many as two dozen drones flew over Moscow. Russian authorities have reported that falling debris damaged a tower block, injuring two people, although they were not hospitalised. Ukraine has not commented on the claims.

Yesterday on Thursday (25 May), the Russian and Belarusian defence ministers Sergei Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin signed documents on placing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to the Russian state-controlled news agency Interfax, Shoigu said at the meeting that decisions over the control and use of the nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus would remain under the control of Russia.  Shoigu added that Russia may take "additional measures" in the future "to ensure the security of the Union State [of Russia and Belarus] and respond to the military-political situation". Russian President Vladimir Putin, and especially TV propagandists, have consistently threatened the West with nuclear weapons as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched on 24 February last year has foundered. On 25 March this year, President Putin threatened to place tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus "for training", although Belarus has worked towards this development for some time.In their daily assessment of the Russian offensive campaign against Ukraine, the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that the chance of Russia using the nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere is "extraordinarily unlikely".