Conflict and Peace

Ukraine's counteroffensive against occupied Russian positions in the east and south of the country have continued in recent days, with Ukraine making small but steady gains in all directions, according to Ukrainian authorities. On Monday (26 June), Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar confirmed that Ukrainian forces had liberated one of two settlements in Donetsk Oblast called Rivnopil, with the liberated one being located close to the border with the neighbouring Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Kyiv Independent writes that Rivnopil is the ninth settlement liberated by Ukrainian forces, in what has been a slow but steady counteroffensive that began in the early days of June. The other settlements recaptured by Ukraine include Lobkove, Levadne, Piatykhatky, and Novodarivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Donetsk Oblast's villages of Neskuchne, Storozheve, Makarivka, and Blahodatne. Elsewhere, on the Bakhmut axis in the eastern Donetsk Oblast, both the U.K. Ministry of Defense and Maliar reported Ukrainian advances.

A Russian airstrike launched on a market in the north-western Syrian city of Idlib on Sunday (25 June) have killed 13 people, reports Arab News. At least nine civilians are among the dead, including two children. Around 30 people are understood to have been injured in the Russian strike on the rebel-held city, and it is expected that the death toll will rise. The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - backed by Russia and Iran - has won back most of the territory that it lost to various groups in the early years of the Syrian Civil War that began in 2011 after the regime violently surpressed pro-democracy protests that had swept through a number of Arab countries. The violent repression of the protests led to President Assad and Syria being a pariah state for a number of years, although a process of the country's rehabilitation has recently taken place with Syria re-joining the Arab League in May this year, at the 32nd summit of the group in Jeddah. You can read more about this here. Over the years, Russia has repeatedly launched airstrikes across rebel-held regions of Syria. Although deadly Russian airstrikes on civilians in Syria have been limited this year - likely due to its ongoing invasion of Ukraine - Sunday's strike is the deadliest attack on Syria this year.

"The question that remains unanswered is if there are Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh who are determined enough not to want to live in an Azerbaijani state that they will resist violently. Such thinking may exist, probably only amongst marginal groups, but nothing will come out of it unless it is abetted by the Government of Armenia, and/or by Russia, or in a less tangible way by radical groups within the Armenian diaspora. The latter can provide some money and possibly some human resources, but do not have the logistical capacity necessary for anything more than isolated incidents," writes commonspace.eu in this editorial. "Whilst a detailed future vision for Karabakh may have to wait until the negotiations are more advanced, now is the time for Baku to send positive signals. By tightening the noose around Nagorno-Karabakh Azerbaijan has forced the issue, so time is no longer on its side." 

Leaders and representatives of seven African countries - South Africa, Senegal, Zambia, Uganda, the Republic of the Congo, Comoros and Egypt - as well as the African Union chief Azali Assoumani, have arrived in Kyiv on Friday (16 June) to promote an African peace plan aimed at ending the ongoing war in Ukraine. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is among the African delegation, and arrived at Kyiv's Nemishaeve railway station where he was greeted by Ukraine's special envoy for Africa and the Middle East, Maksym Subkh, as well as the South African ambassador to Ukraine, Andre Groenewald. According the Reuters news agency, the full peace proposal, which has not yet been made public, includes suggestions of a full withdrawal of Russian troops, the removal of all tactical nuclear weapons from the territory Belarus, the suspension of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, and broad sanctions relief. After arriving in Kyiv, African leaders headed to the Kyiv suburb of Bucha to pay there respects to the some 458 people who were killed during a brief Russian occupation in the opening weeks of the full-scale invasion last year, and are buried in a mass grave there.

The past two days have seen Russian missile and drone strikes targeting the Ukrainian cities of Kryvyi Rih, Odesa, and Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, in total killing at least 18 people and injuring at least 50. At approximately 3.20am on Tuesday morning (13 June), only one of six missiles fired by Russian forces at the home town of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky breached air defenses, striking an appartment block and a food warehouse. As of 9am CET on Wednesday (14 June), Ukrainian authorities have said the strike has killed 12 people, and injured at least 35. More than 70 residential buildings were also damaged as a result of the missile strike, as well as three schools, three buildings of two other educational institutions, and a dormitory. Then, at approximately 2.30am on Wednesday morning, reports emerged of another Russian overnight attack on the southern city of Odesa. Ukraine's Southern Command has reported that at least 3 people were killed by a strike on the warehouse of a retail chain, which caused a large fire.