Conflict and Peace

The United Nations Security Council on Wednesday (16 August) met in open-session to discuss the situation around the Lachin Corridor. Azerbaijan has established check points on the corridor and has restricted movement, whilst offering alternative routes to Karabakh going through Azerbaijani territory. Armenia says this is causing a humanitarian crisis. All fifteen members of the Security Council spoke, with many highlighting the need for humanitarian aid to flow unimpeded to Nagorno-Karabakh; most emphasising the importance of territorial integrity, and all calling for progress in the peace negotiations for the region to move on from the current impasse. The meeting ended without the Council taking any decision. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that there are two important take-aways from Wednesday's meeting: The first, for Azerbaijan, is that, regardless of the fact that Nagorno-Karabakh is recognised as part of Azerbaijan the mood in the international community is one of concern at how Azerbaijan is treating the Armenian community, and will treat it in the future. The handling of the Lachin corridor is by many seen as a test of things to come. Azerbaijan needs a much more nuanced and sophisticated approach on this issue if it is avoid a head on collision with the international community sooner rather than later; The second take-away, for Armenia, is that the international community is currently neither willing, nor probably even able, to put the kind of pressure on Azerbaijan that Armenia expects, and that the solution is progress in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations. For the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh the message from many members of the Security Council was clear: talk to Baku. There is a bigger role for the UN Security Council in the future. Any future Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement should be underpinned by a UN Security Council resolution. But we are not there yet.

"Confidence-building measures are a necessary element in any strategy to end conflicts", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Whilst there have been instances of confidence-building measures in the context of the Karabakh conflict for decades, the post-2020 confidence-building measures differ from the pre-war process. "The participants are more realistic in their expectations and assessments of the situation, understanding that no miracles are possible and that any solution requires painful decisions, especially from the Armenian side. A country cannot lose the war and hope for a solution to satisfy all its expectations and desires. However, this understanding also does not mean that in the post-2020 war period, those Armenians involved in confidence-building measures were ready to accept any solution to the conflict. They seek a difficult balance between being realistic and avoiding putting themselves into “echo-chamber”, situations while not rejecting their core beliefs on the acceptable ways of conflict settlement."

The United Nations Security Council will discuss the situation around Lachin at a meeting in new York on Wednesday, 16 August. The meeting will be open. Under the rules of the United Nations, the Chairmanship of the Security Council moves monthly by rotation in alphabetical order, and this month the Chair is the United States. US diplomacy, with the personal participation of US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has over the last year been trying to assist Armenia and Azerbaijan to develop a peace treaty between them. Although some progress has been made, there remain several stumbling issues on which both sides are showing intransigence. There is speculation that the United States may use tomorrow's meeting to push for a a quicker pace in the ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations, and possibly a bigger role for the UN in the issue of the future of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. This will be fiercely resist by Azerbaijan which is hoping that it friends amongst non-aligned countries will help tone down any criticism of its actions.

The Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov has told The Guardian newspaper in an interview on Sunday (13 August) that Ukraine is the "most heavily mined country in the world". He also said that Ukraine is suffering from a serious shortage of personnel and equipment in clearing the frontlines so the country can continue with its counteroffensive against Russia.

13 civilians have been killed on Tuesday (8 August) in what is being reported as the heaviest fighting in Sudan since the start of a civil war nearly four months ago. Arab News reports that the Sudanese army launched airstrikes and heavy artillery salvos to try to take a bridge across the Nile used by the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to bring reinforcements and weapons from Omdurman to Bahri and Khartoum, the other two cities that comprise the capital.

Senior United States official, the Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, has held talks with the military leaders of Niger following a coup last month. Speaking to reporters from capital Niamey, Nuland said that, in talks lasting more than two hours, the U.S. had offered its help "if there is a desire on the part of the people who are responsible for this to return to the constitutional order". The U.S. was not "in any way taken up on that offer", she said.