Conflict and Peace

The European Council has announced that it will extend sanctions on Russia for another six months, until 15 September 2023. In a statement released on Monday (13 March), the Council announced: "The existing restrictive measures provide for travel restrictions for natural persons, the freezing of assets, and a ban on making funds or other economic resources available to the listed individuals and entities. Sanctions will continue to apply to 1,473 individuals and 205 entities, many of which are targeted in response to Russia’s ongoing unjustified and unprovoked military aggression against Ukraine."The statement continued: "After 24 February 2022, in response to Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, the EU massively expanded sanctions against Russia with the aim of significantly weakening Russia's economic base, depriving it of critical technologies and markets, and significantly curtailing its ability to wage war."

Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, has said in the morning of Monday (13 March) that fighting around the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut - an industrial town with a pre-war population of some 70,000 - remains "difficult" as assault units of the Russian Kremlin-backed mercenary group Wagner continue trying to break through Ukrainian defense lines and advance to the central areas of the city. Quoted by the Ukrainian defense ministry's media center, Syrskyi said "in fierce battles, our defenders inflict significant losses on the enemy. All enemy attempts to capture the city are repelled by artillery, tanks, and other firepower." Russia, and in large part Wagner, has been trying to take Bakhmut for some seven months. In recent weeks Russian and Wagner forces have slowly advanced towards the town and have reportedly partially encircled it. Last week Ukraine is understood to have partially withdrawn to west of the Bakhmutka river that divides Bakhmut, and now marks the front line.

Nagorno Karabakh's future is the most challenging question that Armenia and Azerbaijan face as they seek to move towards the normalisation of relations between them. In this op-ed for commonspace.eu, Benyamin Poghosyan says that "there are different approaches how to deal with this issue. One approach argues for the inclusion of Nagorno Karabakh in the bilateral peace treaty, while according to another view, the Nagorno Karabakh issue should be separated from discussions on Armenia - Azerbaijan relations." This is creating a difficult situation on the ground. "For the time being, the only reliable way to prevent a new large-scale war in Nagorno Karabakh is a robust international presence in Nagorno Karabakh. It will provide relative security and stability in Nagorno Karabakh and contribute to the establishment of favorable conditions for Armenia – Azerbaijan negotiations", he argues.

Following a meeting in Beijing, on Friday (10 March), Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies within two months following years of tensions between the two countries. A joint statement released by the Saudi state news agency SPA read: “In response to the noble initiative of His Excellency President Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, of China’s support for developing good neighborly relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran...the three countries announce that an agreement has been reached between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran." "That includes an agreement to resume diplomatic relations between them and re-open their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months, and the agreement includes their affirmation of the respect for the sovereignty of states and the non-interference in internal affairs of states,” the statement said.

An event on water dialogue between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts is taking place today in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Monday (6 March). In a Facebook post, Emin Milli, the Founder and Chairman of Restart Initiative and the Co-Founder of Daha Yaxşı, Restart Initiative's media project, revealed that the focus of the meeting is to establish what are the key challenges to Internal Water Resources Management at the bilateral transboundary basin level, and to explore potential areas of mutual interest and cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is the third dialogue in the "Economic Connectivity: Armenia-Azerbaijan Dialogue Series" organised by the Restart Initiative in cooperation with the Hertie School, and sponsored by the United States of America. There will be a series of interviews with the participants of the dialogue published by Daha Yaxşı both this and next week. In today's meeting, one of the participants said, "we all will be losers if we don’t cooperate."

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a "limited tactical withdrawal" from Bakhmut, said the Institute for the Study of War in its latest update of the Russia-Ukraine war on Monday (6 March). They did also caution, however, that it is too early to tell if Ukraine is considering a complete withdrawal from the city. Quoting a Ukrainian serviceman, the ISW also reported that, as of 4 March, Russian forces had not yet crossed the Bakhmuta River into central Bakhmut. Russian military bloggers have also claimed the Wagner Group had pushed Ukrainian positions back to central Bakhmut, according to the ISW. Amid the increased fighting along the frontline in eastern Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence reported in its intelligence update on 6 March that Russia "has continued to respond to heavy armoured vehicle losses by deploying 60-year-old T-62 main battle tanks".