Conflict and Peace

For decades, Russia has stood at the centre of the South Caucasus’ security order. No peace deal, no war settlement, no major infrastructure project could be imagined without Moscow’s involvement. Yet this year, for the first time in Azerbaijan’s modern history, that assumption has been openly challenged. A series of diplomatic clashes between Baku and Moscow, followed last week by the U.S.-mediated summit in Washington, show that Azerbaijan is willing to confront Russia more directly than ever before, and that the South Caucasus may now be shifting away from Moscow at an accelerated pace.

Turkey-Russia relations are typically based on compartmentalization. They simultaneously compete and cooperate in various regions, separating the areas in which their interests are overlapping from those where they are in competition. This concept was the base of their competing relations in Syria until the demise of Assad regime in 2024, and mutual interactions in post-Gaddafi Libya.

“You must be glad to be here,” the bartender told my friend, a journalist for a major international media outlet just arrived that evening in Yerevan from Baku via Tbilisi. He raised an eyebrow in response as the bartender slowly poured our drinks. “Why?” he asked, clearly confused. “Because Azerbaijanis are Muslims, they don’t drink, and there are no bars in Baku,” she replied, somehow absolutely convinced that she was correct. The exchange was almost comical, but revealed something deeper. Three decades of conflict had turned former neighbours into strangers. In Tbilisi, where ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis live side by side, it would be met with ridicule. Only last October I sat at a table where the vodka flowed as a local Armenian sang in Azerbaijani and ethnic Azerbaijanis expressed their appreciation in Armenian.

Israel struck one of the main hospitals in the Gaza strip on Monday 25 August and then hit the facility again as journalists and rescue workers rushed to the scene, killing at least 20 people and wounding many more, local health workers said. It was among the deadliest of multiple Israeli strikes that have hit both hospitals and journalists over the course of the 22-month war, Associated Press reported. The assault came as Israel plans to widen its offensive to heavily populated areas, vowing to destroy Hamas after its 7th October attack in 2023.

Russia has once again prosecuted a former regional administrator bordering Ukraine. This time, the case concerns Vladimir Bazarov, the former deputy governor of Kursk. He has been arrested. He is suspected of corruption in connection with the embezzlement of around 10 million euros during the construction of defensive structures. This information was reported by the state press agency TASS.

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia have been on an escalatory track since the crash of the Azerbaijani Airlines commercial airplane in December 2024. In the past, similar disputes were usually resolved quickly, leaving little lasting impact. This time, however, the crisis is far more complex and shows no signs of de-escalation. On the contrary, almost every month since the crash has marked new record lows in Baku–Moscow relations and appears likely to have a lasting impact on future bilateral ties. The situation has become so intricate and unpredictable that further deterioration cannot be ruled out.

Russian President Vladimir Putin Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky look set for a peace summit after fast-moving talks on Monday 18 August between Donald Trump and European leaders that focused on the key issue of long-term security guarantees for Kyiv. Hopes of a breakthrough rose after Trump said he had spoken by phone with Russian counterpart Putin, whom he met in Alaska last week, following a "very good" meeting with the Europeans and the Ukrainian president at the White House on Monday.