Conflict and Peace

"Confidence-building measures are a necessary element in any strategy to end conflicts", writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. Whilst there have been instances of confidence-building measures in the context of the Karabakh conflict for decades, the post-2020 confidence-building measures differ from the pre-war process. "The participants are more realistic in their expectations and assessments of the situation, understanding that no miracles are possible and that any solution requires painful decisions, especially from the Armenian side. A country cannot lose the war and hope for a solution to satisfy all its expectations and desires. However, this understanding also does not mean that in the post-2020 war period, those Armenians involved in confidence-building measures were ready to accept any solution to the conflict. They seek a difficult balance between being realistic and avoiding putting themselves into “echo-chamber”, situations while not rejecting their core beliefs on the acceptable ways of conflict settlement."

The United Nations Security Council will discuss the situation around Lachin at a meeting in new York on Wednesday, 16 August. The meeting will be open. Under the rules of the United Nations, the Chairmanship of the Security Council moves monthly by rotation in alphabetical order, and this month the Chair is the United States. US diplomacy, with the personal participation of US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has over the last year been trying to assist Armenia and Azerbaijan to develop a peace treaty between them. Although some progress has been made, there remain several stumbling issues on which both sides are showing intransigence. There is speculation that the United States may use tomorrow's meeting to push for a a quicker pace in the ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations, and possibly a bigger role for the UN in the issue of the future of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. This will be fiercely resist by Azerbaijan which is hoping that it friends amongst non-aligned countries will help tone down any criticism of its actions.

The Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov has told The Guardian newspaper in an interview on Sunday (13 August) that Ukraine is the "most heavily mined country in the world". He also said that Ukraine is suffering from a serious shortage of personnel and equipment in clearing the frontlines so the country can continue with its counteroffensive against Russia.

13 civilians have been killed on Tuesday (8 August) in what is being reported as the heaviest fighting in Sudan since the start of a civil war nearly four months ago. Arab News reports that the Sudanese army launched airstrikes and heavy artillery salvos to try to take a bridge across the Nile used by the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to bring reinforcements and weapons from Omdurman to Bahri and Khartoum, the other two cities that comprise the capital.

Senior United States official, the Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, has held talks with the military leaders of Niger following a coup last month. Speaking to reporters from capital Niamey, Nuland said that, in talks lasting more than two hours, the U.S. had offered its help "if there is a desire on the part of the people who are responsible for this to return to the constitutional order". The U.S. was not "in any way taken up on that offer", she said.

The Saudi Arabian port city of Jeddah is to host a global summit on reaching peace in Ukraine on Saturday (5 August). The summit will be attended by some 40 countries including many countries of the "Global South", as well as China. Russia was not invited to the talks, however, and Moscow has said that they will "monitor" the summit. The discussion and future implementation of Ukraine's Peace Formula, set out by President Volodymyr Zelensky during an address to the G20 in November, will be the subject of the summit in Jeddah.