Conflict and Peace

Russia has blown up a dam in southern Ukraine's Kherson region. This was reported by Ukraine's Southern Operational Command early in the morning on Tuesday (6 June). The Soviet-era hydroelectric plant lies on the Dnipro river, next to the city of Nova Kakhovka and approximately 50km east of the city of Kherson. Videos have emerged online of a major breach towards the Russian-occupied side of the river, and there are already reports of flooding in dozens of towns and villages downstream. Ukrainska Pravda, citing a nearby resident, said there was a single explosion, after which the dam "collapsed like a house of cards." Ukrainian authorities say that approximately 16,000 people are in the critical zone, and evacuations have already begun. It is expected that flooding down stream will reach critical levels at around 11am local time. At 9am, Kherson Oblast governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported that the villages of Tyaginka, Lvove, Odradokamyanka, Ivanivka, Mykilske Tokarivka, Ponyativka, Bilozerka, and the Ostriv district in Kherson were "fully or partially flooded." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called an emergency meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, according to the council's head, Oleksii Danilov. 

Reports have emerged online during Sunday (4 June) and early Monday morning (5 June) of increased fighting along the front line in Ukraine. Various social media sources that have regularly provided updates on the current situation on the ground in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 reported forward Ukrainian troop movements in a number of locations along the front line over the last 24 hours. On Monday morning, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said troops were "moving forward" towards the eastern city of Bakhmut, and had destroyed a Russian position near the city. As of 09.30 CET on Monday (4 June), nothing else regarding the ostensible counteroffensive has been officially stated by Ukrainian authorities. Yesterday, Ukrainian authorities published a video asking for people to withhold any precise information they may have on Ukrainian troop movements, saying "Plans love silence. There will be no announcement of the start [of the counteroffensive]." The footage featured masked and well-armed troops holding their fingers to their lips, stressing the importance of operational security.

The Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met yesterday (1 June) near the Moldovan capital, Chisinau. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the second summit of the European Political Community (EPC), and was chaired by the European Council President Charles Michel. The French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, were also in attendance. In remarks made following the meeting, President Michel said that they had a “very good meeting”, in which they addressed the topics of connectivity, security and rights, border delimitation, and the peace treaty. Michel announced that they had scheduled a next meeting of the five leaders for 21 July, to take place in Brussels, adding that yesterday’s meeting was “good preparation” for then. “It means that we are working hard, and we intend to support all the positive efforts in the direction of normalisation of the relations,” said Michel.

The dust of war from the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has started to settle, and although peace remains elusive, there is hope across the region for a better future. No-one has waited for this moment more than the hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis who were displaced by the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s.