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Opinion
Opinion: Russian withdrawal from Karabakh allows Azerbaijan to strengthen its ties with its Turkic "family"
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Opinion: Russian withdrawal from Karabakh allows Azerbaijan to strengthen its ties with its Turkic "family"

28 April 2024
The geopolitics of the South Caucasus is as unpredictable as ever. Even as recently as the beginning of April, few, if any, would have imagined that Russia may withdraw its peacekeeping contingent from the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan anytime soon. Many observers were even skeptical about the possibility of their withdrawal in November 2025 – the date which was stipulated in the November 2020 trilateral statement as the potential but not fixed date for the ending of the peacekeeping mission of Russia. This skepticism was grounded in the understanding that for Russia, Karabakh holds paramount importance in the broader context of the South Caucasus. In the wake of Russia’s unexpected withdrawal of its peacekeeping mission from the Karabakh region, the South Caucasus enters a new geopolitical dynamic. This historic development not only signifies Azerbaijan's attainment of complete sovereignty over its territories but also heralds the definitive end of the Karabakh conflict. President Ilham Aliyev's adept diplomatic maneuvers have secured Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and positioned Baku as a confident actor on the regional stage. The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers marks a pivotal moment, shaping the future landscape of Azerbaijan-Russia relations and regional geopolitics. As Azerbaijan charts its course forward, its commitment to regional integration remains, however, steadfast, with a focus on strengthening ties within the Turkic world.
Vasif Huseynov

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News
Armenian and Azerbaijani experts discuss transboundary water dialogue in Tbilisi
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Armenian and Azerbaijani experts discuss transboundary water dialogue in Tbilisi

6 March 2023
An event on water dialogue between Armenian and Azerbaijani experts is taking place today in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Monday (6 March). In a Facebook post, Emin Milli, the Founder and Chairman of Restart Initiative and the Co-Founder of Daha Yaxşı, Restart Initiative's media project, revealed that the focus of the meeting is to establish what are the key challenges to Internal Water Resources Management at the bilateral transboundary basin level, and to explore potential areas of mutual interest and cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is the third dialogue in the "Economic Connectivity: Armenia-Azerbaijan Dialogue Series" organised by the Restart Initiative in cooperation with the Hertie School, and sponsored by the United States of America. There will be a series of interviews with the participants of the dialogue published by Daha Yaxşı both this and next week. In today's meeting, one of the participants said, "we all will be losers if we don’t cooperate."
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News
Ukraine likely conducting limited tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut, Russia still deploying 60-year-old tanks
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Ukraine likely conducting limited tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut, Russia still deploying 60-year-old tanks

6 March 2023
Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a "limited tactical withdrawal" from Bakhmut, said the Institute for the Study of War in its latest update of the Russia-Ukraine war on Monday (6 March). They did also caution, however, that it is too early to tell if Ukraine is considering a complete withdrawal from the city. Quoting a Ukrainian serviceman, the ISW also reported that, as of 4 March, Russian forces had not yet crossed the Bakhmuta River into central Bakhmut. Russian military bloggers have also claimed the Wagner Group had pushed Ukrainian positions back to central Bakhmut, according to the ISW. Amid the increased fighting along the frontline in eastern Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence reported in its intelligence update on 6 March that Russia "has continued to respond to heavy armoured vehicle losses by deploying 60-year-old T-62 main battle tanks".
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Commentary
A convergence of factors and developments make a spring breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations possible
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A convergence of factors and developments make a spring breakthrough in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations possible

2 March 2023
After an erratic 2022, which saw prospects for peace and normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and between Armenia and Turkey, swing between unprecedented new heights and familiar lows, and after a rather pessimistic start for 2023 when diplomacy appeared to have to come to dead end, March has started with cautious optimism in the air, and the prospect of a historic Spring breakthrough appears within reach. This is due to the convergence of a number of factors and developments, some anticipated and some not. The ten developments that offer cause for optimism are: US brokered talks between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Munich; the deployment of an EU Monitoring Mission; the revival of the Brussels format; internet diplomacy; the ruling of the International Court of Justice; a fluid political situation in Stepanakert; Baku and Stepanakert holding direct talks; earthquake diplomacy between Armenia and Turkey; the limitations of Russia’s power and influence have been exposed; and more confident leaderships in both Baku and Yerevan.
commonspace.eu editorial team
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News
Warmer weather could help Ukraine in Bakhmut as Kyiv claims 150,000 Russian troop losses
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Warmer weather could help Ukraine in Bakhmut as Kyiv claims 150,000 Russian troop losses

2 March 2023
In its latest intelligence briefing on the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday (2 March), the UK Ministry of Defence has suggested that warmer weather around Bakhmut - the eastern Ukrainian town with a pre-war population of 70,000 that Russia has been trying to capture for months - may help the Ukrainians in their defence. In the briefing, the UK Ministry of Defence wrote, "as Ukrainian forces continue their defence of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, rising temperatures are now creating the muddy conditions [...] limiting cross country movement (CCM)." "Poor CCM typically provides some military advantage to defending forces," the briefing adds. The UK Ministry of Defence also note that daytime temperatures around Bakhmut have risen to above freezing, and warmer than average forecasts over the next weeks will also likely decrease CCM. "It is almost certain that by late-March, CCM will be at its worst following the final thaw. This will add further friction to ground operations and hamper the off-road movement of heavier armoured vehicles, especially over churned-up ground in the Bakhmut sector."
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Young voices
Yemen’s complex war: caught between religious ideology and geopolitical conflict
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Yemen’s complex war: caught between religious ideology and geopolitical conflict

1 March 2023
The Yemen crisis has become one of the most complex crises in our modern era. It is a crisis in which various circumstances and causes combine in a highly contradictory way. To elaborate, the Yemen crisis is a civil war due to internal fighting caused by the Houthi rebellion against the state and is fuelled by societal division on several levels. Accompanying this local crisis is an absence of any true and authentic political affiliation or political engagement despite the existence of a legal basis that allows political participation and freedom in Yemen. This article attempts to describe both local and international factors shaping the conflict, elaborate on the actors involved and their motives, explain the disastrous effects of the crisis, and put forward several possible scenarios for the future.
Noman Ahmed
Monif Aldarwish
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Commentary
Gulf States' position on the war in Ukraine is a work in progress
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Gulf States' position on the war in Ukraine is a work in progress

28 February 2023
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine one year ago the prevalent feeling among the Arab Gulf states was that they did not want to get involved.  Some thought the best policy was to ignore it, others that they should at the very least dodge it, and some even saw in it some opportunity to extend relations with Russia and China.  There were a number of reasons for this. The region was frustrated with how the west dealt with it. It expected a more equal relationship that never properly materialised. There was fatigue at western attempts – some clearly ill-judged – at interfering in the Arab region, and conversely, disappointment at western failure to stand up to Iran. The unsightly US departure from Afghanistan, and talk of American strategic re-positioning, convinced some that the American moment in the Gulf had passed.
commonspace.eu editorial team
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News
Ukraine repels 60 Russian attacks in 24 hours as Bakhmut situation deteriorates
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Ukraine repels 60 Russian attacks in 24 hours as Bakhmut situation deteriorates

28 February 2023
The Ukrainian military repelled 60 Russian attacks in five areas over the past 24 hours in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported in its morning update on Tuesday (28 February). Ukraine repelled the attacks near Kupyansk in eastern Kharkiv Oblast as well as Lyman, Bakhmut, Adviika, and Shakhtarsk in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia is concentrating its main offensive efforts, according to the General Staff. Russian troops reportedly carried out eight missile attacks, 32 air strikes, and launched more than 85 attacks using multiple launch rocket systems  between 27 and 28 February, the statement said. Meanwhile, in his daily address on the evening of 27 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the situation in the Bakhmut direction is "getting more and more difficult". He added that Russia "is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense". The commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, has said the situation around Bakhmut is "extremely tense". Russia has been trying to take the medium-sized industrial town with a pre-war population of roughly 70,000 for over six months, and has long been a location where the front line has been the most active. 
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