Conflict and Peace

Azerbaijan said that it has achieved the objectives for its military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh and that it was suspending all measures. In a statement, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence said "that taking into account the appeal of representatives of the Armenian residents of Karabakh received through the Russian peacekeeping contingent, an agreement was reached to suspend local anti-terrorist measures on September 20, 2023 at 13:00 on the following conditions: 1. The formations of the armed forces of Armenia and illegal Armenian armed formations  located in the Karabakh Region of the Republic of Azerbaijan lay down their arms, leave combat positions and military posts and completely disarm. Units of the Armenian armed forces are leaving the territory of Azerbaijan, illegal Armenian armed formations are being disbanded. 2. At the same time, all weapons and heavy equipment are surrendered. 3. The implementation of the above processes is ensured in coordination with the Russian peacekeeping contingent." The agreement has also been confirmed by sources close to the Armenian community of Karabakh. It has been further agreed that representatives of Baku and Stepanakert will meet tomorrow Thursday (21 September). The Azerbaijani military operation lasted exactly twenty four hours, during which dozens of casualties are reported on both sides.

Azerbaijan on Wednesday (20 September) continued its push into the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh despite international pressure to cease all hostilities. Throughout the night explosions could be heard across the territory as Azerbaijani artillery continued neutralising military objectives of the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which was set up by Armenians in the territory thirty years ago when they seceded from Azerbaijan. The world community still recognises Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Unconfirmed reports say that yesterday, only hours after the start of the operation, Azerbaijan managed to break through the line of contact around Martuni and Askeran, to the north and east of the main administrative town of the territory, Stepanakert. Since the Azerbaijani forces already hold the heights over Stepanakert from the south side, due to their control of the town of Shusha, this may suggest Azerbaijani forces are trying to encircle Stepanakert. There has been widespread condemnation of the Azerbaijani military offensive by the international community, with all countries, except Turkey, calling on Azerbaijan to end hostilities immediately. The UN Security Council is expected to meet tomorrow (Thursday, 21 September) in the afternoon New York time. It is not clear if a binding UN resolution can emerge, since the position of Russia and China remains ambiguous. It appears Azerbaijan is trying to achieve as many of its objectives as possible before that. In a conversation with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev said that the main objective of the operation was to disarm the illegal armed formations of the Armenian separatists. Azerbaijani spokespersons have repeatedly said that Azerbaijan is not seeking to expel the Armenian community from the territory and wants to see them properly integrated in Azerbaijani society. But the concern of the international community is that in the current atmosphere it is more likely that the Armenians will leave as the Azerbaijanis advance. Such scenario would mean that everyone has lost – the next hours will say how it is likely to go.

Azerbaijan' armed forces on Tuesday (19 September) around 1300 local time, launched a large-scale military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azerbaijani forces hit military targets with artillery and drones. There are now unconfirmed reports of movement of ground forces. The Azerbaijani government says it is responding to provocations, including an incident last night when several Azerbaijanis were killed as a result of a recently planted landmine. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan convened a meeting of the National Security Council to discuss developments. In a statement, he accused Azerbaijan of trying to embroil Armenia in a large-scale conflict, and said that Azerbaijan was pursuing in Karabakh a policy of ethnic cleaning. A statement issued by the Azerbaijani foreign ministry stated that "on September 19, the Armenian armed forces in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan resorted to a series of large-scale military provocations and terrorist attacks." The Armenian government in a statement once more categorically denied that its armed forces were station in Nagorno-Karabakh. There have been no reports of incidents on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Behind the scenes there are intensive diplomatic efforts to try to stop the violence from escalating.

In this op-ed for commonspace.eu, Onnik James Krikorian says that as the topic of the future of the Armenians of Karabakh within Azerbaijan becomes more urgent, it is now time for Armenian and Azerbaijani analysts and political scientists to elaborate potential models for integration in unison. Though Baku says it already has a plan, no details are known or even if it exists at all. And even if it does, then Armenian and Azerbaijani civil society could have suggestions and recommendations. "If they want, of course, but they should. Otherwise such models could be determined without their input and imposed from above or outside regardless of the potential consequences", he adds. 

The territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has never been a purely inter-state matter between the two countries. Since the beginning of the conflict in its post-Soviet period, neighboring big powers like Russia and Iran sought to manipulate the conflict and use it as an instrument for their parochial regional interests. It is a well-documented fact that Armenia succeeded to occupy the Azerbaijani territories thanks to military and political support of Russia. Likewise, it was thanks to the Russian support that Armenia was able to consolidate its control over the Karabakh region and adjacent Azerbaijani districts. The conflict has always been a critical tool for Russia to exert influence on Azerbaijan and keep Armenia under control.

"It seems that talks over the future of Nagorno Karabakh have reached an impasse. Azerbaijan claims there will be no Nagorno Karabakh inside Azerbaijan, and Armenians should live as ordinary Azerbaijani citizens. At the same time, those who do not want to accept this option should leave. Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh categorically reject this option, meanwhile stating that they will not leave their homeland", says Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu "Currently, it is challenging to offer an option that may more or less satisfy both Azerbaijan and NKR. However, one thing is clear: new large-scale war in Nagorno Karabakh will make long-term peace and stability in the South Caucasus a pipe dream. Thus, all actors interested in a stable region should message Azerbaijan that a new war against Nagorno Karabakh is not the best option to move forward. Otherwise, the region will plunge into another decade of instability, destruction, and human suffering", Poghosyan argues