Conflict and Peace

For weeks, expectations were built up that a summit between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosted by European Council president, Charles Michel, French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, scheduled on the margins of the meeting of the European Political Community in Granada, Spain on 5 October, will give a stimulus to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Just a day before, however, Azerbaijan announced that President Ilham Aliyev will not attend. What could have been agreed in Granada? Speaking in the Armenian parliament on 4 October, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan outlined the points of a document that he said he had hoped could have been signed in Granada the next day had the Azerbaijani leader not cancelled his visit, but which he still felt could be signed at an opportune moment. Pashinyan outlined the three principles as: 1. Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity, based on the understanding that Armenia territory is 29800 square km while Azerbaijan territory is 86600 square km; 2. The Alma Ata declaration should be the political basis for border delimitation and later demarcation. It is important that before delimitation is made, agreement is reached on which maps delimitation and demarcation will be based on. This should be implemented based on the maps of 1975, but in principle, we may be flexible on this;   3. Restoration of communications of the region should take place based on the principles of sovereignty, laws, equality, and reciprocity of the countries.  

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking at prime minister's question time in the Armenian parliament on Wednesday (4 October), said that a document now exists which he was ready to sign, that was consistent with the logic of peace and stability in the region. Pashinyan said that he does not want to create a false impression that the document is against the interests of Azerbaijan and completely compatible with the interests of Armenia. "Armenia hopes that the conceptual document will be signed at an opportune moment. I am ready to sign it," he said. Earlier, the prime minister said that he had hoped that the document could have been signed in Granada on the margins of the European Political Community Summit on Thursday (5 October). It now transpires however that Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev has refused to attend the summit. Pashinyan said he will attend the summit nonetheless. commonspace.eu political editor said in a comment that it is clear that there is now broad agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on at least a general document, which the Armenian prime minister called a "Conceptual Document", which may be the basis for a future, more comprehensive peace treaty. But all the sides are aware of broader sensitivities, and it seems that Russian pressure on Aliyev made him miss an important opportunity to take the peace process forward by signing the document in Granada this week. This is a highly risky gamble since circumstances can change very fast. One therefore hopes that the "opportune moment" mentioned by prime minister Pashinyan will come within days, not weeks.

On the eve of the expected meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Granada on Thursday (5 October), on the margins of the gathering of the European Political Community, Brussels' leading think tank, the European Policy Centre, has published a commentary by commonspace.eu Managing Editor and Director of LINKS Europe, Dr Dennis Sammut on the prospects of the EU's initiative to bring lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He argues that "the exodus of 100,000 Armenians from Karabakh following the recent Azerbaijani military operation has focused minds. However, as it pursues its peace initiative with Armenia and Azerbaijan, the EU’s primary objective is to get both sides to sign a peace agreement. Going forward, the EU needs to adopt a regional approach as the core of its engagement with the South Caucasus." Given the speed of changes on the ground, there is a risk that the EU peace initiative may run out of steam or become irrelevant since, at this point, Armenia-Azerbaijan relations can take different trajectories. Granada offers the last opportunity for a substantial peace agreement that would, at last, turn the page on an ugly chapter of modern South Caucasus history. It is unlikely that a substantial deal can be signed yet. Still, in Granada, it should become quite clear whether the conditions exist to overcome the final obstacles, with the sides formally recognising each other’s territorial integrity based on the borders stated in the 1991 Almati Declaration, and, eventually, by establishing full diplomatic relations. The EU needs to be strategic in its vision and focused on its approach. Getting an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal agreed and signed by the end of the year must now be the priority.

Football, it is often said, can unite nations in love with the game. But in Iran, it appears they see things differently. Saudi Arabia and Iran were at loggerheads for years, but in March, with much fanfare, the Chinese announced they had brokered a deal between the two countries. Diplomatic relations were restored. And from last month, football matches could start being played on their home grounds, instead of in third party venues. But for Iran, political scoring is all important. A furious row erupted on Monday after an Iranian football club tried to use a match against Saudi opponents for political propaganda. The AFC Champions League match at the Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium in Isfahan between Sepahan and Jeddah team Al-Ittihad was called off when the Iranian club refused to remove political banners and busts of the late Revolutionary Guard warlord Qassem Soleimani from the edge of the pitch. Soleimani ran the overseas arm of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and was a blunt critic of the Saudi government and the kingdom’s ruling Al Saud family. He was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad in 2020. The Iranians refused to remove the bust. After requesting a delay of half an hour to assess the situation, the Saudi team and staff left the stadium to head to the airport and back to Saudi Arabia.

A United Nations mission has arrived in Karabakh, the first visit in thirty years. This is the first international mission to visit Karabakh since the 19 September Azerbaijani military operation and the capitualtion of the Armenian forces. In the last week a hundred thousand Armenian - nealy all the population of the territory - has departed for Armenia. The United Nations Mission, headed by the UN Resident Co-ordinator in Baku, and including representatives of various UN agencies passed through Aghdam in the morning and moved in the direction of Askeran-Khankendi. The purpose of the mission is to familiarize with the situation on the ground and to determine the humanitarian needs of the residents. Announcing the mission last Friday in New York,  UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the mission will be led by a senior official of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Ramesh Rajasingam, and the UN Resident Coordinator in Azerbaijan, Vladanka Andreeva. The mission will also include an OSHA (occupational safety and health and risk management) technical team and representatives from UN agencies. Dujarric said “the mission will enter the region from the territories of Azerbaijan. The team will try to assess the situation on the ground and determine the humanitarian needs of people on both sides. The UN has not been to the region for 30 years ", and such a visit will be organized for the first time. The mission will operate in the region for at least 10 days."

Azerbaijan's destruction by force of the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh Republic is seen by some as removing one of the key obstacles in the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, that will resume in the next days in Granada, Spain. Others however see the elimination of the Karabakh factor as opening the way for Azerbaijan to make even more demands on Armenia, writes Benyamin Poghosyan in this op-ed for commonspace.eu. "It is challenging to assess whether peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is within reach. However, one thing is clear: the second humiliation of Armenia within three years has already triggered significant backlash among Armenians. Many are still in shock, which is why Yerevan witnessed only small protests recently. However, many Armenians are fed up with permanent losses, and there is a growing feeling that Armenia, in the long–term perspective, should become stronger to reclaim its position in the region. In the current environment, any attack of Azerbaijan against Armenia, regardless of pretexts or reasons, will only strengthen this feeling among Armenians and will be a direct path to long-term instability and conflicts in the South Caucasus", he argues.